Maybe you went into the draft complete with spreadsheets, analysis, browser plug-ins, and a carefully crafted strategy ready to put all those hours of research to work. Or, maybe you're the type that approached the draft with reckless abandon - ready to wing it and let the chips fall where they may.
Either way, you likely came away from the draft with the sober realization that it was nothing like what you expected. You didn't get a number of the players that you targeted and there's probably a good chance you ended up with several players you had no interest in too.
"I don't get it, Commish. I completed 42 mock drafts, planned my strategy and it went off the rails after 15 minutes!"
That's the way live drafts work. Be it fantasy football or baseball, they rarely - if ever - turn out the way you plan.
Why? Because humans are illogical creatures - especially this bunch - and trying to predict their next move is near impossible. They zig when you think they're going to zag.
But more than that, your draft probably didn't turn out as expected because of what you didn't do when you had the chance.
Picture for a moment; you're in the early rounds of the draft when Trea Turner is nominated. You're ready for this. You've budgeted $43 for him and you're sure that's going to be enough because it's $4 more than his expected draft price. Surely no one else in the league planned to bid more than his expected draft price, right? Let the bidding begin.
With a quality player like Turner, it doesn't take long before the price starts rocketing upward: $25, $28, $34, $37, $39. Uh, oh. It's getting close to your max and there's another owner ferociously bidding against you.
Finally, as Turner's price tag hits $44, you panic because this is already over your maximum. "What the hell", you say as you punch that raise button and take it to $45. You just locked him down for sure.
The timer counts down - 4, 3, 2...then, BOOM, the other owner raises you to $46.
Now you have a decision to make. Should you bid $47 and take even more money away from other positions later on? Or, do you cut bait?
The timer counts down again - 4, 3, 2, 1, sold!
Should you have bid $47? Probably. At the end of the draft, did you have money left? If you did, then the answer is yes. Would that other owner have gone to $48? Maybe.
The average amount of money left over for a team in this year's draft was $6.91 with four teams pocketing over $10 by the time it was done. And I probably don't need to point out that unspent draft money has very little value.
And that's what I'm talking about; you locked up out of fear. If you really wanted Turner, or some other player, there's a good chance you could've gone over budget and still been OK.
It happens to everyone, every year. But don't worry. You'll forget all about that instance where you missed out on a player you could've spent more to get by the time next year's draft rolls around. And then, you'll repeat the process and make the mistake again because we're illogical beings.
DRAFT REPORT CARD
If that didn't get you down, here's something that might: the Draft Report Card.
I know what you're thinking: "WTF, Commish?! You gave me a D minus?! Didn't you see me draft the entire Royals pitching staff?"
If I'm honest, I may not have put a lot of work into these grades. I might have just used calculations from a notable fantasy website to produce them. We'll never know.
But if there's one thing I've learned about pre-season projections and draft grades, it's that they're seldom right. If you've been in our fantasy football league, you know exactly what I'm talking about: the teams at the top rarely finish there and the teams at the bottom find they're actually pretty decent throughout the year. Heck, some of them even make the playoffs.
POWER RANKINGS
Still holding out hope that your team is better than your draft grade reflects? Here's something that should put an end to that: the SCL Baseball Power Rankings.
Unlike the Draft Report Card grades, I actually spend a bit of time calculating these. Based upon the players you drafted, and your optimal starting lineup, I use those player projections and run them through a formula.
For those of you that "math" well, here's the formula:
{(μScore x 6) + [(∨Score+∧Score) x 2] + [(Win % x 200) x 2]} ÷ 10
After gathering the individual player data for your team, I smash the keyboard until the data and the formula work their magic and provide me with a result that indicates the score your team is likely to produce on a "good" week.
If your Power Score is 390.21, it doesn't mean that's what you'll score each week. Rather, it means your average score each week should be around 364.35. But if your players all perform better than expected, your team is capable of scoring around 390.21 points.
For those of you that are new to the Sagebrush Cactus League, the Power Rankings are updated each week after your matchup ends.
ALL-STAR LINEUP CHALLENGE
As of this writing, I've received entries from six teams. If you're one of the six that submitted your lineup, thank you. If you're one of the other six that are still thinking about it, time is running out. Besides, it costs you nothing - you already paid for it when you entered the league - and you'll have a chance to win $75 or $25.
Beware, if you wait until the very last moment to submit your lineup, there may not be enough time for me to look it over and advise you if there are problems so you can make adjustments. Just ask any of the six that have already submitted theirs, it happens.
Don't forget: if you submit a lineup but decide you want to change it, you can just re-submit a new form. I will keep your most recent submission as long as it's done before the deadline.
UPDATE YOUR TEAM NAME
Lastly, there's still time to change your team name if you wish. Opening Day is still a few days away and I'd like to have all changes completed by then.
Good luck this season!
-- Commish
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