I originally planned to make the majority of this post about the playoff races in both leagues. However, since nearly all of you are sitting at .500 and, with the exception of a few, no one seems to want to stand out, the playoff picture in both leagues is about as clear as mud.
Here's what I do know without getting too far into the weeds:
Jergoff Passout and Thundabuddies are the only two teams guaranteed to make the playoffs right now.
Badazz Bri, Pork Chop Express, Shiva Kaminis, Najee Germany, and My Chubb's Hardman have all been eliminated.
Golden Tate Warriors, Consolation Kings, Who Is You, Baby Got Dak, Chubby Chase, Jalenhouse Rock, The Real Slim Brady, TJONES35, and BattleBornKid all control their own destiny...if they win out, they're in.
Chief Sticky Balls, Do Not Panic, NH Bounty Hunters, Los Perros Locos, Keenan and Kel-ce, We're on to Cleveland!, Ohio State Gunkeyes, and Tallaassee Tator Tots are all still eligible, but need to win out and get some help.
Beyond that, there are about 1,837,294 other ways these playoff races could play out which would put this blog post in the "long read" category.
In lieu of breaking down all of the various scenarios, I thought we could use this week to reflect on the season a little.
Generally speaking, it's not very beneficial to look back in fantasy football. The games have already been played and the outcomes are irreversible. And since you can't change what's already been done, it's better to focus on what's ahead.
However, who can deny that a bit of reflection isn't fun once in a while?
Before the season began, every owner in this league held high hopes; this was going to be their year. No doubt about it.
Armed with hours of research, spreadsheets, and a fool-proof plan for crafting a championship team, each of you entered the draft ready to execute your strategy. But as the clock started, those plans quickly fell apart and your dreams of a championship began to clash with reality. After all was said and done, you're left with a team that was probably very different from the one you envisioned.
But how well have those players worked out?
There's only one way to find out: we need to look over some of the top players at each position and measure them against each other.
But first, let's take a brief look back at the Draft Report Cards. You remember those, right?
In the Sagebrush League, Chief Sticky Balls and Pork Chop Express both received high marks for their draft. Where are they now? Well, after losing to Baby Got Dak this week, the Chops are officially out of the playoff race. And the Sticky Balls are right behind them unless they receive an early Christmas miracle.
If there's one area where the grades accurately reflected performance, you'd have to agree Badazz Bri and Do Not Panic are certainly living up to expectations. Failing in the draft was just the first step in what has been a long season for both teams.
Three teams defying the odds are Jergoff Passout, Who Is You, and Baby Got Dak. Passout has already secured their ticket to the dance while You and Dak are both in control of their post-season destiny. All three are proving the analysts wrong and I would not be surprised to see any of them make a good playoff run.
In the SCL Segundo League, The Real Slim Brady and BattleBornKid seem to be on track to finish as expected. In my experience, these are they types of teams to look out for in the playoffs. Especially if you're a #1 seed.
And though the Tallaasee Tator Tots couldn't win a spelling bee, they're proving they earned their "B" grade in the draft. With two weeks left in the regular season, they're still in the playoff mix and may just get in with a little help from their friends.
But, by far, the biggest surprises are at the top and the bottom of the report card.
After coming out on top of their draft class, My Chubb's Hardman and Najee Germany have shocked many, including themselves...and not in a good way. These two were supposed to be at the top of the standings by now. Instead, they're both stuck at the bottom and have already been reduced to playoff spoilers instead of contenders. Maybe they should coordinate a playoff viewing party?
During the Segundo draft, I saw a lot of shade thrown at TJONES35 and Chubby Chase for their questionable selection strategies. Who's laughing now? These two ugly ducklings might have looked like the biggest failures coming out of the draft but they now lead their divisions and appear poised to do well in the playoffs.
But that's enough about the pre-season reports cards for one post. Let's talk about individual players and how well they compare to what they cost in the draft.
Below, you'll see some tables with a lot of data to digest. Like a good Thanksgiving dinner, you'll want to take it all in slowly so you don't hurt yourself.
On each table, you'll see the top players at each skill position - sorted by total points scored this season - shown with the team that drafted them and what they spent. But, wait, there's more...
Any clown could claim Josh Allen was a better pick than Tua Tagovailoa this season because he's scored 116 more points. But only savvy fantasy owners, like yourselves, would point out that Allen cost substantially more and, when you factor in that cost, Tua actually far exceeds Allen's point production for every dollar spent. Think about it; if you could go back, wouldn't you take Tua for $2 instead of Allen for $44 and have an extra $42 to spend on WRs or RBs...or even Ks?
Additionally, the last column in each table indicates how well the player has performed against the average weekly score for that position. To help keep the averages relevant, I've restricted them to just the top 25 for QBs and TEs and the top 50 for RBs and WRs. We don't need Tyrod Taylor's one completion this season skewing our data.
For example, you'll see that Josh Allen's Better/Worse Versus Positional Average is 47.2%. That means the he scores, on average, 47.2% more points per week that the average top-25 QB. I like this metric because it only includes games that the player has played in. It removes the scoring discrepancies caused by injuries and bye weeks. It's a true measurement of how good they are, compared to the average player at their position, when they're on the field.
Also, if you see a (K) next to a player's name, that doesn't mean they're a kicker. It means they were selected as a keeper in the Sagebrush Cactus draft. This is helpful to put some of the draft prices in context when you see a significant difference between the two leagues.
Got it? Good! Dig in.
The top of this list is filled with the usual suspects: Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, Burrow, etc. No matter the price paid for them in the draft, it would be difficult to argue they weren't worth it. But a little further down the list we begin to see where some very good draft bargains were found.
If you were fortunate enough to grab Justin Fields for $2 in the draft, congratulations...you dropped him before he found his groove and he is now on your opponents roster. Assuming Fields can get back on the field soon, I expect we could see his stock value increase even higher up this list.
Another name that stands out is Tua Tagovailoa. At just $1 and $2, and performing 15% better than the average QB, you could make the case that he might be this year's best value.
At the bottom of the list are two of the biggest busts at the QB position this season: Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady - I feel weird writing that sentence. But, it's true. Both have been stellar fantasy QBs for so long that they still demand a draft or keeper price that is nowhere in line with their performance this season.
Interestingly, three of the top six on this list are known for their tendency to run: Hurts, Jackson, and Fields. And though Mahomes and Allen aren't "running" QBs in the true sense, they've shown they're not afraid to use their feet. Is this an indication that we're seeing a move away from pocket-passers?
What's that? Oh, you don't see your QB on this list? That's probably because you grabbed Russell Wilson or Matt Stafford who were selected for $12 and $17 in the Sagebrush Cactus League and $11 and $3 in Segundo. Both QBs fell far short of pre-season expectations.
To see Josh Jacobs at the top of this list is a surprise to anyone who is not part of the Raider cult. Jacobs' pre-season projections put him low on almost everyone's draft radar. But if you were one of those willing to take that risk, it's certainly paying off.
A little further down the list, Tony Pollard and Jamaal Williams show up as two other players we're not used to seeing in the top-10. I've heard rumors that Pollard could supplant Elliott as the starting RB next season and it's becoming easy to see why. Jamaal Williams has been a TD machine and I'm not sure there's a better bargain to be found. For just $1, Williams has Thundabuddies and The Real Slim Brady at, or near, the top of their divisions.
It's interesting to think about what might have become of Breece Hall had he not been injured. Hall hasn't seen the field in five weeks yet he's still at top-25 RB at the moment. I'm not sure I would consider him a "steal" at $25 and $28, but he was definitely worth the price tag.
Who are the busts on this list? Relatively speaking, I'd suggest Najee Harris and Alvin Kamara should be in the conversation.
At a cost of $65 and $55 and performing worse than your average top-50 RB this season, Harris might be considered the biggest bust. The Golden Tate Warrirors and Keenan and Kel-ce would like to speak to the manager about a refund, please.
When Jergoff Passout elected to keep Kamara for $38, I thought that could turn out to be one of the best RB bargains by the end of the season. Boy was I wrong.
If you're in the Segundo League and I offered you Amon-Ra St. Brown for $5 or Deebo Samuel for $31, which would you choose. Well, if you had this chart handy, you'd see the correct answer is St. Brown...by a pretty clear margin.
And while St. Brown has proven to be a decent bargain this season, perhaps the better deal would've been to take Christian Kirk for only $2.
Another name that stands out to me is Amari Cooper. Cooper is currently performing just under 25% better than the average top-50 WR, but when you consider he cost less than $10, that's a pretty solid ROI.
If we're looking for busts on this list, we're looking for those players that cost more than $20 yet perform at, or lower than, your average WR. Some of the names that fit that criteria: Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, Mike Evans, DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman Jr, and DJ Moore.
If you have any of those players, I'm sorry.
One look at this list and two things stand out: the tight end position is incredibly thin and, beyond Kelce, it's almost impossible to predict.
Taysom Hill is a standout on this list but if you look just below the surface, you'll find that he's really only there because of a single game. Without scoring 41 points in week 5, he falls completely off the list.
Hockenson ($2/$7) and Njoku ($1/UND) appear to be two tight ends that provided a decent return on their investment. Their production isn't something to brag about, but they're consistent when they're on the field and it's not like there are a ton of alternative options.
Not on this list are a few names that fetched high draft prices. Kyle "Throw Me The Damn Ball" Pitts ($24/$35) and Darren Waller ($41/$17) were probably this season's biggest busts at this position. If I were a betting man, I'd say next year's projections for them fall drastically. Heck, you might even be able to pick them up for $1.
Has anyone seen Dawson Knox? Last year he was on this list and looked like he had a bright future, hence the Consolation Kings kept him for $12 and he was drafted by The Real Slim Brady for $11. Twelve weeks into this season, I'm not sure Josh Allen even knows he's on the field.
There you have it, folks. Hopefully your team featured several players on these lists. And if not, I expect you to review and commit these tables to memory before next season's draft.
GOLDEN TICKET CHALLENGE
The top four teams remain unchanged after week 12, however, the Thundabuddies added a little insurance to their lead over the rest of the field. It's getting more difficult to see anyone catching them, but with five weeks remaining, anything can happen.
SURVIVOR CHALLENGE
Both leagues are coming down to a final week. Will Pork Chop Express muster enough in week 13 to knock off one of the top scoring teams in the Sagebrush Cactus League? Can The Real Slim Brady put together another solid performance or will TJONES35 bounce back from a terrible week 12? Stay tuned to find out.
PIGSKIN PICK'EM CHALLENGE
Several teams did very well this week and it's beginning to look like this contest will come down to the wire. With 11 wins, the Thundabuddies remain in the lead but Jalenhouse Rock and Golden Tate Warriors both closed the gap a little with 13 and 12 wins, respectively.
WEEKLY SCORE WINNERS
Highest Score: Thundabuddies (159 pts) and Keenan and Kel-ce (154 pts)
Highest Score - Loss: Chief Sticky Balls (126 pts) and Chubby Chase (128 pts)
Lowest Score - Win: Do Not Panic (88 pts) and Tallaassee Tator Tots (116 pts)
COMMISH'S PICKS
Who is still reading this post?
Good luck in week 13!
-- Commish
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