LINE: Badazz Bri -1
COMMISH'S PICK: Badazz Bri
LINE: Do Not Panic -8
COMMISH'S PICK: Baby Got Dak
LINE: NH Bounty Hunters -12
COMMISH'S PICK: Christian McMingle
LINE: Jergoff Passout -8
COMMISH'S PICK: Jergoff Passout
LINE: Chief Sticky Balls -5
COMMISH'S PICK: Thundabuddies
LINE: Golden Tate Warriors -10
The road to the Championship game may as well have been paved with gold for the Warriors. They began the season with a narrow 1-point victory over Chief Sticky Balls and, although they stumbled in week 2, they never really looked back. Winning their next five straight games in weeks 3 through 7, they solidified their stranglehold on the division and it was theirs to lose from there on out.
One of the most crucial factors in winning your division is beating your rivals every chance you get, and the Golden Tate Warriors did just that. In eight regular season games against Sagebrush teams, the Warriors were a perfect 8-0 while averaging 123.8 pts/gm. Compare that to the 3-3 record and 103.8 pts/gm they averaged against Cactus teams this season and you can see the importance they placed on winning divisional games first and foremost.
For Who Is You, the road to the playoffs was a little bumpier.
You came out of the gates ready to defend their title, winning their first three games including a season-high 169-point outing in week 1. They looked like a defending champion early on, but their fast start to the season would be short lived.
In weeks 4 through 13 of the season, Who Is You won only three games and watched as their playoff hopes dwindled. Their impressive week 1 performance seemed a distant memory as they averaged only 107.7 pts/gm afterward with just one game over 130 points - in week 8, when they scored 158 against Jergoff Passout.
With each passing week, they struggled to stay in the hunt, always just a game out of consideration. And all of that came to a head in the final week of the season where the odds were stacked against them.
In week 14, not only did Who Is You need to beat one of the top teams in the league, Thundabuddies, but they also needed a bush-league Los Perros Locos team to upset Baby Got Dak. As luck would have it, the Perros somehow pulled off the upset, Who Is You beat the Thundabuddies and, like that, they were playoff bound.
Remember a few paragraphs back when I mentioned that the Warriors hit a little bump and suffered a rare loss in week 2? That game was against, none other than, Who Is You.
In that contest, You held the Warriors to 100 points in a matchup that saw Josh Allen (19 pts), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (3 pts), and Deebo Samuel (10 pts) all perform below their expectations. And, it's a good thing You's defense kept them in check because other than Patrick Mahomes (32 pts), their offense didn't exactly break any records either, scoring 111.
Worth noting is the number of players from that week 2 matchup that have moved on and won't enjoy the opportunity to play in the Championship game. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Stefon Diggs, Ja'Marr Chase, Tyler Higbee, Darrell Henderson Jr, CeeDee Lamb, and T.J. Hockenson will all be watching the game from their couch with the rest of us.
But none of that really matters now because it all boils down to just this one game. Yep, 14 weeks of regular season games and 2 rounds of playoffs mean nothing if they don't capitalize on this opportunity.
The key for Who Is You in this game will be to get Patrick Mahomes over 20 points. For the season, You has won 6 of 8 when Mahomes reaches 20, but they've lost 4 of 5 when he doesn't. No real surprise there. It's clear their offense centers around Mahomes' play.
Receivers will also be crucial for You in this game. Currently, ESPN projects You's receiving tandem to score 20 combined points which is significant when you consider that You has won 4 of 6 games when their WRs score 20 or more. But, they're 3-5 when the don't. Getting their WRs involved early and often will be important if they're going to keep pace.
But, here's something I know you haven't considered: Who Is You might be hoping that Austin Ekeler scores less than 15 points. Yeah, you heard that right. In the six games where Ekeler scored 15+ points, Who Is You is only 2-4. But, in the seven games where Ekeler failed to reach the 15-point mark, they're 5-2. Perhaps they should let Ekeler get to 14 points and then pull him from the game to increase their odds of winning.
So the recipe for You is simple: Mahomes needs 20+, their WRs need 20+, and Ekeler needs to stay under 15 points.
For the Golden Tate Warriors, completing one pass to Kyle Pitts for 20 yards should do the trick. No, really. Since acquiring Pitts in week 8, the Warriors have only lost one game where Pitts scored more than one point.
Regardless, if there's one indicator that will tell us how well the Warriors do, it will be the play of their RBs. I did a little digging and discovered that when the Warriors RBs score between 19 to 24 points, they're a .500 team with a 3-3 record. But, when their RBs score anything outside of that range, be it less or more, the Warriors are a perfect 8-0. So the fact that ESPN projects their RBs to score 28 points bodes well for them.
By now, you're probably thinking, "That's great, Commish, but what about the Warriors D/ST?" Good question.
It appears the Golden Tate Warriors have done their research and they're rolling with the Cowboys D/ST. Here's what I mean: the Warriors have started the Cowboys D/ST unit seven times this season and they've won six of those contests. More importantly, the Warriors are a perfect 5-0 whenever the good folks over at ESPN project that unit to score 10 points or less for the week. And wouldn't you know it, the Cowboys D/ST are projected to score - wait for it - 10 points.
In one final note of comparison, it should be pointed out that the Golden Tate Warriors have seven starters ranked in the top 10 at their position, and five ranked in the top 5. On the other side of the ball, Who Is You will be starting two players ranked in the top 10 or top 5 at their position. On paper, this looks like a bit of a mismatch. But hasn't that been the case in the other two playoff games that Who Is You won?
I've mentioned it before, and I'll say it again: no team in SCL history has ever won back-to-back championships. Who Is You will be the 4th team to try to conquer that hill. But facing a Warriors team as dominant as this one, I just don't see history being made this year.
COMMISH'S PICK: Golden Tate Warriors
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