LINE: Jergoff Passout -22
The road to the title game for Baby Got Dak was filled with detours and delays and now that they've reached their destination, they're having some major engine troubles. For most of the season, Derrick Henry and Tua Tagovailoa managed to keep their team on the right path despite drifting off course a few times. But like Clark Griswold at the gates of Walley World, I imagine they're feeling baffled and disenchanted by the fact that they'll enter the biggest game of their season without either of them.
Jergoff Passout's journey was quite different. After suffering a loss in week 2 with their worst score of the season - 88 points - they never really looked back. Reeling off five straight victories in weeks three through seven, they quickly found themselves at the front of the pack before finishing with three straight wins to end the regular season, earning them the #1 seed in the Sagebrush division.
There's little doubt in my mind that had it not been for the injuries to Henry and Tagovailoa, the line on this game would be much closer than it is. However, there may not be another team more accustomed to playing the underdog role than Dak. It's kind of their thing.
Throughout the course of the regular season, Dak was favored to win only twice. Yes, twice. Which means that they pulled off the upset victory five times this season...more than any other team in the league. If they're going to do it again, they'll have to make some major adjustments.
Back in week 4 of the season Passout absolutely crushed Dak, 162-75, in a game of extremes. That game was the lowest point total for Dak this season and the highest point total for Passout. And some of you may also recall that was the week Tua wobbled off the field against the Bengals after scoring just 1 point.
If Dak is going to prevent a repeat of that game, they'll need Wilson, Allen, and Kirk to score perform at a higher level. Fortunately, the trio are projected to score 29 points this week and based on what they've done over the last six weeks, I think it's certainly possible.
The bigger problem will be figuring out how to stop the incredible talent on Passout's side of the ball. Joe Burrow and Justin Jefferson have been outstanding, as expected, but when you add in Barkley and the 49ers D/ST, you really begin to understand how Jergoff Passout has so dominant this year.
Throughout the season I've referred to Dak as the "dark horse" in this league; the team that finds a way to win despite the odds. However, this matchup looks like it may just be too much for them to overcome without two of their best players.
Jergoff Passout's lineup features six players ranked in the top 5 at their respective positions and, short of a miracle, I see no reason they won't continue to produce at an elite level this week. I'm not willing to give three TDs, but I'm taking Jergoff Passout to win the crown.
COMMISH'S PICK: Jergoff Passout
LINE: Chubby Chase -15
The Real Slim Brady has been a different team in the playoffs than they were in the regular season. Slim Brady began the season where they finished; leading their division. Off to a 6-1 record through the first seven weeks, they never really looked back. To be sure, they're still one of the best teams in the league, as evidenced by their appearance in the Championship Game. But they scored only 100 points against TJONES35 last week, their lowest point total on the season...something their coaching staff has been working overtime on to correct in preparation for this game.
Chubby Chase, on the other hand, came out of the gates with a hitch in their giddy up. A 143-point total in week 1 was great, but they followed that up with 80 and 108 points in weeks 2 and 3 putting them in a hole they would have to climb out of. But once Chase got the Wagon Queen Family Truckster rolling in week 4, the Cholla division was theirs. They saw their average score increase from 110.3 pts/gm over the first three weeks to an incredible 133.1 pts/gm over the rest of the season.
It shouldn't be surprising to see both of these teams fighting for a chance at Segundo supremacy. As I've mentioned previously, Slim Brady has yet to score less than 100 points this season and their 124.4 pts/gm average is second best in the league. Equally impressive is the fact that Chase's 80-point game in week 2 was the only time they scored less than 108 points this season while averaging a league-best 129.4 pts/gm.
In one of those strange and inexplicable universal phenomena, much of Brady's success this season is identical to Jergoff Passout's in the Sagebrush Cactus League: Joe Burrow and the 49ers D/ST. That seems to be a pretty good indication of how valuable those two players have been in fantasy this season.
And though I'm sure they'll do well as they have all season, the real difference makers for Slim Brady will probably be Mixon and Diggs. Both players performed well throughout most of the season, but have seen their production slump over the past several weeks. Reports around the league indicate Slim Brady's coordinators are coming up with some creative strategies to get Mixon and Diggs more involved in the offense and I wouldn't be surprised to see both players score at least 15 points this week...maybe even 20+.
It's become increasingly clear that no one is going to stop Justin Jefferson and Chubby Chase's staff knows that. Which is why they're focusing on getting Chubb back to his early season form. Before his bye in week 9, Chubb was the best RB in fantasy, averaging 23.4 pts/gm. But since his week off, Chubb's average has fallen to 12.8 pts/gm...a drop of nearly 50%. That will not get the job done against a team like Slim Brady who rarely slips up.
In their week 9 meeting, Chubby Chase scored 121 points which is enough to win more often than not. But in that instance, it was 36 points shy of Slim Brady's 157 points - their best game of the season.
These two teams have potent offenses that just can't be contained and I expect we're going to see an impressive level of scoring from both. And having scored 143 and 139 in their last two games, it's easy to make the case that Chubby Chase is the hotter of the two lately. They're good. Very good. But here's the one data point that I just can't shake: Chubby Chase has never won more than two games in a row. And last week was their second straight victory. I'll take The Real Slim Brady by the slimmest of margins in an upset.
COMMISH'S PICK: The Real Slim Brady
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