Before we get into the nuts and bolts of our championship games, I wanted to take a moment to congratulate the teams that made it. You've played well this season and earned a well-deserved opportunity to compete for the ultimate prize. Good luck this week!
SAGEBRUSH CACTUS LEAGUE
LINE: Even
It took several weeks for the Golden Tate Warriors to find their groove this season. They opened the year with a win against Who Is You, before coming up short in their next two contests leading their front office to make a major change that would shake up their entire team: trading away Josh Allen and Jahmyr Gibbs for Joe Burrow and Austin Ekeler.
Their fan base was worried. Allen had been the leader of the Warriors for several seasons and, with Burrow and Ekeler banged up, the coaching staff would be forced to rely on a mix of unproven backup players for several weeks. Making matters worse, it didn't comfort their followers much when, two weeks after the trade, the Warriors fell 176-133 to the very team they sent Allen to, the Los Perros Locos.
But something happened after their 2-3 start to the season. With injuries piling up, the coaching staff was forced to get creative and give opportunities to young, unproven players setting them on a course that defined their season.
Understanding their work-horse, Christian McCaffrey, was the core of the team, the Warriors handed the keys to Brock Purdy and surrounded him with the weapons he needed - talented RBs, quality WRs, and proven D/ST units.
And it worked. The Warriors would go on to win 5 in a row, with Purdy making excellent use of his surrounding cast each week. If Aiyuk struggled, Hopkins stepped up. If Ekeler wasn't delivering what they needed, Achane took the reins. And by week 10, the Warriors were leading the Sagebrush Division handily.
There's no front office that is more active than the Pork Chop Express. Whereas the average team in the Sagebrush Cactus League made 21.3 acquisitions and 54.1 lineup changes this season, the Chops made 70 acquisitions and 115 lineup changes. Yeah, they're on top of it.
When you make that many waiver claims, you're bound to strike out a few times. Yet, during those early days of the season, the Pork Chops made perhaps the best acquisition of the year: Kyren Williams. Adding Williams to their roster proved to bolster what was a struggling running game and took a good deal of pressure off of the rest of the team. It was such an outstanding addition, the Chops have already renewed his contract for next year to avoid a bidding war with other owners.
But you'd have a difficult time arguing that it doesn't work for them. They were hot out of the gates this season, winning 5 of their first 6 games and the only reason that didn't have them leading the Cactus Division is because Baby Got Dak won 6 straight to open the year.
Shortly after those first 6 weeks though, Dak began to slip and the Chops seized their opportunity. Winning 4 of their 6 games throughout the NFL bye weeks, the Pork Chop Express found themselves cruising past their divisional foes. And once they secured the division lead, they would not be pried lose.
In their lone meeting this season, the Golden Tate Warriors defeated Pork Chop Express 144-126 back in week 4. That contest was dominated by strong performances from RBs on both sides of the ball. Christian McCaffrey and Devon Achane tallied a ridiculous 73 points for the Warriors while Kyren Williams delivered 29 points for the Chops. I'm not sure the Warriors will be able to repeat their running dominance in this meeting, but I still like RBs on both sides of the ball to see plenty of action. Edge: Pork Chops.
I do, however, have some concerns regarding WRs - specifically on the Chops side of the ball. While the Chops' secondary should be able to prevent the Warriors WRs from breaking loose this week, I'm not sure their WRs will be up to the task when they have the ball.
Opting to start the newly-acquired Demarcus Robinson over McLaurin is a curious move. Robinson has certainly been the better WR of late, but is his late-season surge more than just a fluke? Conversely, McLaurin is mediocre on his best days so maybe rolling the dice on Robinson is worth the gamble. Additionally, Calvin Ridley hasn't exactly lived up to his preseason hype and now he's not even sure who will be throwing him the ball this week.
Without the potential Travis Kelce brings to Pork Chop Express, I'd have to argue the Warriors have the stronger, more consistent pass catchers. But Kelce is known for coming through in big games and I think just having him on the field makes this category a push.
If you ask me, this game will be won or lost at the QB position and it should be a good battle to watch. Brock Purdy is currently the 5th best fantasy QB and Mahomes is right behind him at 6th. But this is Purdy's first time in the Sagebrush Cactus Championship Game and I worry the pressure might limit him a little. Not too much, but a little.
On the other hand, Patrick Mahomes has been here before...twice. In 2020, Mahomes scored 21 points to help Who Is You earn the title. The year after, in 2021, he returned to the championship game and lost, despite scoring 24 points. Under the media spotlight that comes with the title game, I like a veteran QB who already knows how to handle it. Plus, Mahomes is due for a big game given his recent outings.
The bettors seem to agree with me: this game will be close. Both teams have been here before, 3 times each to be exact. But where the Warriors have 2 trophies, the Chops have none. I think the 4th time is the charm for this squad and they'll be the team hoisting the hardware after the weekend.
COMMISH'S PICK: Pork Chop Express
SEGUNDO LEAGUE
LINE: Gotham Rogues -6
Like a cannon ball just leaving its chase, it began with a bang before it fizzled to a whimper. That's the only way to describe the regular season for TJONES who won 10 of their first 11 games before losing their final 3. And it's a good thing they piled up all of those wins when they did because it payed off, earning them the Yucca Division title and a first-round bye at a time when the coaching staff didn't seem to have any answers.
But it wasn't just the fact that TJONES lost their last 3 games that shocked me - it was the way they were losing. Through the first 11 weeks, TJONES hadn't scored less than 109 points in a game. They seemed unstoppable, scoring with ease and dominating not just their division, but the Segundo League as a whole. No other team was playing at their level.
In their final 3 contests, however, TJONES SAW THEir (opps, damn caps lock) average score fall from 127.5 pts/gm to just 92.0 pts/gm - a decrease of 35.5 pts/gm in case you don't have a calculator handy. And, yes, in case you're wondering, they did actually field a complete starting lineup in those games.
Where TJONES started on a high before finishing on a low, the opposite was true for the Gotham Rogues.
If you'll recall, the Rogues exited the draft with one of the worst grades in the league, D. And in the early going, it seemed the prognosticators were right. The Rogues lost 4 of their first 6 games with weekly scores like 64, 99, 63, and 83. Opponents were circling their matchups with the Rogues and already counting them as a win.
As bad as it was for the Rogues through the start of the season, it would get worse. In week 5, their best player and perhaps the best player in fantasy, Justin Jefferson, suffered an injury that would keep him out for the 8 weeks. Gotham was quiet. Their team was not performing and there seemed little to be hopeful about.
But as quality teams do, they made adjustments to their plans...in the form of trades. In fact, I believe the Gotham Rogues set a league record for the most trades by a team in a season, with 7 deals cut among 5 different teams, including a week 3 agreement that sent their other top WR, Ja'Marr Chase, to division rival Tallaassee Tator Tots. The Rogues have never seen a trade offer they didn't like.
Though fans and strategists looked on with confusion, the Rogues' staff stayed true to their vision and assembled a roster that would go on to 5 straight in weeks 7 through 11, putting them smack dab in the middle of the playoff race. And if winning those games without Jefferson and Chase weren't impressive enough, the Gotham Rogues increased their scoring production by more than 43 pts/gm, from 95.2 to 138.4.
Moving in opposite directions at the time, these two squared off in the season finale where the Rogues won 105-87. But that low-scoring affair seems like so long ago after watching both teams score no less than 149 points in any round this postseason. That is to suggest this game should be a fun one to follow.
For TJONES, the key to victory will be jump starting their running game. Outside of an outing here and there over the past few weeks, Kamara, Swift, and Walker haven't risen to the level their staff believes they're capable of. With each averaging about 10 or 11 pts/gm, TJONES RBs coach has been working with the group to see if they can come together and finish the season on a high.
Another reason TJONES will be focused on the run is to keep the ball away from the Rogues' passing game. With Justin Jefferson back, defenses can no longer key on Nacua or LaPorta and the nothing illustrates that better than the results over the past few weeks. With Jefferson drawing defender's attention, Sam LaPorta scored 24.6 points against the Ohio State Gunkeyes and Paku Nacua followed that up with 29 points against Jalenhouse Rock. And even when you try your best to contain Jefferson, he's still capable of scoring more than 20 points like he did last week. Stopping this trio has been a nightmare for defensive coordinators.
Yet, for all the thrill the positional players should offer us, this game will boil down to what looks like an unexciting matchup between their D/ST units. Yes, the Jets D/ST will play against the Browns D/ST on Thursday and I suspect whichever group scores more will be the one that brings their team the championship. And I'm betting the Browns come out on top.
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