LINE: Pork Chop Express -30
COMMISH'S PICK: Pork Chop Express
LINE: Chief Sticky Balls -13
COMMISH'S PICK: Chief Sticky Balls
LINE: Los Perros Locos -18
COMMISH'S PICK: Los Perros Locos
LINE: Golden Tate Warriors -12
The road to the post-season was paved in potholes and speed bumps for the Consolation Kings. Nevertheless, here they are, complete with their 6-8 regular season record. And if making it to the playoffs for the third time in nine years wasn't difficult enough, they draw a matchup against a Golden Tate Warriors team that they've lost four straight to. In their last meeting against the Warriors, the Kings were given the peasant treatment and put on the rack, losing by 69 points in a week where Josh Allen scored only 12 points. Talk about a missed opportunity. I'm certain the Warriors star QB will score far more points this time around which presents a problem for the Kings since they lost Kyler Murray and Justin Fields is questionable in his matchup against a solid Eagles defense. If they're going to have a chance to pull off the upset, the Kings will be looking to the Joneses; Zay and Donovan People. With regular starters like Conner and Chubb should be able to score which means the Jones boys could provide the spark the Kings are looking for. On the Warriors side of the ball, the formula is simple: keep doing what they've been doing. As long as Allen, Etienne, Harris, and Adams can all score at a level they're capable of, the Warriors should have no problem scoring 120+ points. And even if they don't, can you really see the Warriors scoring less than 100 points - a level that might prove difficult for the Kings to achieve? It's easy to want to cheer for the underdog to win. But there's one major problem: the Kings have never won a playoff game. Sadly, I think this year's reign comes to an end this week.
COMMISH'S PICK: Golden Tate Warriors
LINE: Who Is You -2
It's been four years since Baby Got Dak was last seen in the playoffs and ten years since they won their only title. This week they'll take on Who Is You in what they hope will be the first step in their journey back to the promised land. In their last playoff meeting, back in 2017, Who Is You easily handled the #1 seed, Dak, 122-71. You're crazy if you think Dak's coaching staff hasn't been reminding their players of the upset all week at practice. Earlier in the season, I mentioned I thought Dak could be a dark horse if they made it to the playoffs. To be sure, they are a good team. But, I made that comment before I saw what Who Is You has done recently. Over the past three weeks, there is no hotter team in the league. You has won their last three games with an average score of 125.3 pts/gm...best in the league during that span. With nearly 70% of their starting lineup coming from NFC East teams, Who Is You has put together one of their better regular seasons in team history ranking 3rd in scoring with an average of 114.5 pts/gm. For context, that's a total score that Dak has reached only three times this season. And, if you were to remove Dak's highest score of the season, their average falls from 103.5 pts/gm to just 99.7 pts/gm...and that's a level of scoring that Who Is You hasn't fallen below since week 4. All of this is to say that I think the spread on this game is off. I'm still going to take the favorite, but I'm teasing the line to -10.
COMMISH'S PICK: Who Is You
LINE: Najee Germany -9
COMMISH'S PICK: Shiva Kaminis
LINE: We're on to Cleveland! -2
COMMISH'S PICK: My Chubb's Hardman
LINE: EVEN
The final week of the season saw a dip in production for both teams. TJONES won their final regular season game despite scoring only 99 points while BattleBornKid totaled 107, their lowest since week 8, in a loss to Chubby Chase. For TJONES, that uninspiring victory ended a two-game losing streak that probably cost them the #1 seed in the Yucca division forcing them into this matchup against a Kid team that had won seven in a row until last week. But seeing their winning streak come to an end is the least of Kid’s concerns. Losing Deebo for, what appears to be, the entire playoff season presents a significant challenge. Though he hasn’t produced at the level expected this year, his potential to change the game in any given week will be difficult to replace. Without Samuel’s explosive talent in the lineup, BattleBornKid could see their offensive production fall well below their 116.9 pts/gm average this season placing added pressure on their defense to keep the third highest scoring team in the league in check. Winning on the road is an important part of any successful season and these two teams have embraced that concept. Both have won six of seven away from their home field so it should come as no surprise that, in their two games this season, each team won their road contest against the other. That trend would seem to favor Kid. But with TJONES’ trio of excellent RBs ready to control the game tempo, I’m not sure Kid will be able to keep their offense on the field enough to pull off the victory.
COMMISH'S PICK: TJONES35
LINE: Ohio State Gunkeyes -5
The Gunkeyes are hopeful that the third time really is the charm. In two contests against Jalenhouse Rock this season, the Gunkeyes came away with black eyes, losing 111-102 in week 7 and 126-108 in week 12. To overcome their past misfortunes against Jalenhouse Rock, the Gunkeyes will take to the road, visiting the Heartbreak Hotel where Rock has won five of seven this season by an average score of 122.4-107.4. The Ohio State Gunkeyes are a team that largely centers around their QB, Josh Allen, and they've been working all week to come up with a game plan they hope will get him back to his early-season form. In weeks 1 through 6, Allen averaged 35.4 pts/gm which is what the Gunkeyes believe it will take to get the win. However, if Allen continues performing as he has since his week 7 bye (23.4 pts/gm) they could be in for a long day against a Rock team with an equally talented QB, Jalen Hurts. Over the past three weeks, Hurts has averaged 39.6 pts/gm - impressive, to say the least - and he's facing a Bears defense that is ranked 31st in fantasy this season. If the Gunkeyes can find a way to keep Hurts under 30 points, that could put a lot of pressure on the rest of Rock's lineup to exceed their projections. Similarly, for Rock, keeping Josh Allen under 25 points means the workload will fall to players like Kamara, Lamb and Kirk who've all had their struggles this season. But this is the playoffs, folks, and the expectation is that players will leave it all out on the field this week. Look for both teams to put up a good fight in what should be a close contest. But if you want your ticket to pay out, you'll take Jalenhouse Rock and the points as I think the Gunkeyes are in for a Blue Christmas.
COMMISH'S PICK: Jalenhouse Rock
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