LINE: Chief Sticky Balls -11
COMMISH'S PICK: Badazz Bri
LINE: Pork Chop Express -28
COMMISH'S PICK: Pork Chop Express
LINE: Los Perros Locos -15
COMMISH'S PICK: Los Perros Locos
LINE: Golden Tate Warriors -15
COMMISH'S PICK: Golden Tate Warriors
LINE: Jergoff Passout -7
The third time was the charm for the Kings last week in their defeat of a Warriors team they had lost to twice this season. They’ll head on down to Shame Glaze Stadium this week to see if they can repeat that feat against a Passout team they’ve dropped two against this year, and one that they’ve never beaten. Never. Ever. Another problem facing the Kings this week is that two of their regular starters, Nick Chubb and Tee Higgins, have been bitten by the injury bug and could be limited if they’re able to play. That’s particularly concerning when you consider they have struggled to score against Passout even with those players were healthy, averaging only 86.5 pts/gm. For Jergoff Passout, the major concern will be keeping their players focused on this game. When you’re the #1 scoring team in the league and you’re coming off a bye, players are feeling rested and can begin to look ahead to the Championship Game. And that can be dangerous – just ask three of the last four #1 seeds who were eliminated in the second round, after their bye. In an intriguing twist, one of those teams was the Consolation Kings – formerly Christian McMingle – who, in 2020, were eliminated in the second round, scoring only 92 points as they fell to the underdog, Chief Sticky Balls. With recent history as their reminder to be on the lookout for trap games, I have to believe Passout’s coaching staff will have this team ready at a high level. It’s been a good run for the Kings but facing an opponent that has outscored them in 11 of 15 weeks, and by an average of 16.4 pts/gm, their elimination may be fait accompli.
COMMISH'S PICK: Jergoff Passout
LINE: Baby Got Dak -5
You would have to go back to the 2013 season to find the last time these two squared off in the playoffs. Sadly, both teams were bounced in the second round and found themselves playing each other for third place where the Thundabuddies defeated Dak – formerly 22 WD Forte – 85-68. Fortunately, one of them will punch their ticket to play in the Championship Game next week. Who will it be? For Baby Got Dak, the recipe for victory will be to rediscover the magic they showed in weeks 7 through 10 when they won four straight games. During that span Tua Tagovailoa averaged 26.8 pts/gm and Derrick Henry averaged 23 pts/gm. It’s tough to fail with that level of production from your team leaders as evidenced last week when Tua scored 22 and Henry scored 26. But what about the Thundabuddies? What do they need to do to win? Are you sitting down? For the Thundabuddies to win, Stefon Diggs will need to score below his season average of 15.7 pts/gm. You heard me. When Diggs scores less than 15 points, the Thundabuddies are 6-0, which means they’re 3-4 when he scores more than 15. And before you ask, yes, they also won when Diggs was on bye. So, I guess they’re actually 7-0. Chalk that up to one of those phenomena that science just can’t explain. Where does that leave us? Well, Tua is projected to score 22, Henry is projected to score 25, and Diggs is projected to score 13. Basically, it means they’ll tie. Enter Geno Smith. Smith will outscore Tagovailoa and since QB points is the tiebreaker, that will be enough to lead the Thundabuddies to the title game.
COMMISH'S PICK: Thundabuddies
LINE: We're on to Cleveland! -3
COMMISH'S PICK: Najee Germany
LINE: Keenan and Kel-ce -2
COMMISH'S PICK: Keenan and Kel-ce
LINE: Tallaassee Tator Tots -8
COMMISH'S PICK: My Chubb's Hardman
LINE: BattleBornKid -26
COMMISH'S PICK: BattleBornKid
LINE: The Real Slim Brady -7
You’d be hard pressed to find a team in the league better than either of these two. They were the only two teams in the SCL League that finished with 10 wins, and both finished in the top 3 in total scoring this season. The sample size for comparing these two is just one game, back in week 6 where Slim Brady got the better of TJONES, 138-119. Much of Slim Brady’s success in that contest was due to their ability to keep Patrick Mahomes under 27 points, something they may find more difficult this time around. With the injured Jonathan Taylor out, the TJONES staff has been preparing an offensive scheme they hope will allow Mahomes to finish with 30+ points because when he does, TJONES is 6-0. Moreover, when Mahomes totals 30+, TJONES’ average final score is 137.0 pts/gm versus just 94.1 pts/gm when he doesn’t. For Slim Brady, the strategy is simple: don’t change a thing. Really. Slim Brady hasn’t scored below 100 points in any game this season and that’s largely because they spread the wealth better than any team in the league. They don’t rely on just one or two players to carry their team. Over the course of the regular season, Slim Brady’s lineup failed to produce at least two players with 20 or more points just two times. And they featured three players totaling more than 20 points six times this season, winning each one of those matchups. The reality is that TJONES’ defense probably won’t be able to slow down an offense as versatile as Brady’s, putting added pressure on their offense to keep pace. Sadly, I don’t think they’ll be able to in a hostile environment at Eight Mile Stadium.
COMMISH'S PICK: The Real Slim Brady
LINE: Chubby Chase -8
For the Ohio State Gunkeyes to make it to the Championship Game, they’ll need to do something they haven’t been able to do all season: beat Chubby Chase. And that’s a tall order. Chubby Chase is the highest scoring team in the SCL Segundo league, averaging 128.7 pts/gm, scoring below 100 points just once this season, way back in week 2. There’s a natural tendency to believe the Gunkeyes will need a huge game from Josh Allen if they’re going to pull off the upset. However, consider the fact that when Allen scored more than 40 points, the Gunkeyes were 0-3 during the regular season. To strike a more balanced offense, the Gunkeyes will look for Allen to score somewhere in the range of 25-30 points, allowing others more opportunity to contribute – specifically their running game. Kamara and McKinnon will be crucial. If those two can produce at a level that helps the Gunkeyes control the pace of the game, they may be able to keep Chase’s dynamic-duo of Jefferson and Chase off the field, limiting their impact. But let’s be real for a minute; the odds of one of those WRs scoring more than 20 points is pretty good. In fact, there’s a 47.8% chance that it happens based on Chase’s regular season history. In seven games where only one of them scored more than 20 points, Chase’s record was 4-3, proving that they’re beatable if you can limit them. If the Gunkeyes allow them both to score 20+, it’s over as Chase is 2-0 in those situations. The Gunkeyes looked great last week, scoring 161 points but that was the exception, not the rule. I see them finishing near their season-average of 117.1 pts/gm which will probably leave them about 15 points short of where they need to be. Take Chubby Chase with confidence.
COMMISH'S PICK: Chubby Chase
Comments