Be honest, how many of you thought Baker Mayfield, Jayden Daniels, and Justin Fields would be top 5 QBs after six weeks? Did you think Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert would be outside of the top 25? Did your pre-season bingo card have Chuba Hubbard or Brian Thomas Jr listed as top 10 players at their positions? Based on the fact they were acquired for just $5 apiece, I'm guessing most of you didn't.
But that's what fantasy football is all about: trying to predict what is going to happen. And it's virtually impossible unless you have a crystal ball. Sometimes you get it right, like the cases above. Sometimes you don't.
Bijan Robinson was a consensus top 5 overall draft pick this year. If you paid - oh, I don't know - $75 for him, congratulations. Thanks to a solid week 6, he's now earning you just under 1 point per dollar spent. Or maybe you spent $163 for Puka Nacua, Jonathan Taylor, and Malik Nabers - all of whom are injured and earned you exactly 0 points in week 6.
In addition to Robinson and Taylor, three other players were drafted for more than $70: Tyreek Hill ($75), Christian McCaffrey ($91), and Saquon Barkley ($72). Of those five, only Barkley has outscored Chris Godwin ($9), Jayden Reed ($6), or J.K. Dobbins ($1).
Perhaps your team was coming off a 147-point performance in week 5 that earned you the top spot in the Power Rankings and you were sure you had week 6 in the bag when you saw your opponent riddle with injuries. You felt good about your odds. But come Monday morning, you woke up to a fantasy hangover looking at a bench full of players that would've prevented a 1-point loss.
Or what about situations that are out of your control? Teams that score 100+ points are 34-9 this season - a 79% win rate. So what are you supposed to do when your team loses by 29 points after scoring 118 in week 5 just to turn around and take another loss in week 6 despite scoring 112? Is that bad luck or destiny?
The point is, fantasy football is a non-stop guessing game of what will happen and when. You might as well test your luck with a Magic 8 Ball or a deck of tarot cards. Never ye fear...help is here.
When it comes to predicting the future, there is only one person I can think of qualified to handle the task. Ladies and gentlemen, the Seer of Seers, the Sage of the East, and former emcee at an International House of Pancakes: Carnac the Magnificent.
Ed McMahon:"Welcome, welcome, welcome, Magnificent One."
Carnac:"Simsalabim."
Ed:"Here are some envelopes with questions from followers of the SCL. They have been hermetically sealed and kept with Los Perros Locos' last championship trophy which hasn't been seen in 10 years. You have never seen these before, but will now answer them before revealing the question." (Hands the first envelope to Carnac)
Carnac: (Holds the sealed envelope to his forehead) "Hanging out on a beach in Mexico with Deez Nuts, drafting two kickers, a 'Diddy' party, and benching Sam LaPorta." (Opens envelope) "What are things people should avoid?"
Ed:"Ho ho! Just like my uncle's fruitcake at Christmas!"
Carnac: (Takes the envelope and holds it to his forehead) "A strategy, a handcuff running back, and Baker Mayfield." (Opens it) "What are three things nobody thought was necessary in the draft but now desperately need."
Ed:"Ho ho ho! Like throwing away those random cables in the junk drawer!"
Carnac: (Concentrating on the envelope) "The line at the DMV, Six-Pack Park, and a music festival porta-potty." (Opens it) "What are some places that stunk last week?"
Ed:"Yes! Some of those smelled worse than week-old fish!"
Carnac: (Holds another envelope to his head) "The Homecoming Queen, Pork Chop Express, and a butcher's block." (Opens the envelope) "Name three things that got pounded last week."
Ed:"HA! Ho ho ho!"
Carnac: (Holds the sealed envelope to his forehead) "A reliable tight end, Children's Story Hour with Badazz Bri, the Jacksonville Jaguars D/ST, and a Do Not Panic victory." (Opens envelope) "Name some things that don't exist."
Ed:"Ha, ha, yes! Like Bigfoot and my cousin's sense of fashion."
Carnac: (Focuses on the envelope pressed to his forehead) "MaxxCasualties, hair transplants, Baby Got Dak, and drafting your favorite NFL team's players." (Opens envelope) "What are some things that might not be as good as they seem."
Ed:"Ho, ho! Those are all a coin-toss."
I don't know how he does it, but in all my years I've never seen him miss one.
But if Carnac isn't your thing, or if he didn't provide the insight you were looking for, I have just the thing to help. Those of you that are veterans to this league already know what's coming - after all, we just finished week 6 of the season.
As I've done every year, I'm going to share historical league data with you that will tell you exactly what you should expect of your team this season based on your current record after the first six weeks. Below is a table that will give you your odds of making it to the postseason, earning a trip to the Championship Game, and bringing home the title. Keep in mind, this table reflects 19 seasons worth of results so there's no disputing it.
If you're 6-0 right now...you're on the wrong website. You're not in this league.
If you're 5-1 right now...you're also in the wrong place. We're not that good over here.
If you're 4-2 right now...you're Blue Ribbon, MaxxCasualties, Golden Tate Warriors, Badazz Bri, or Los Perros Locos and, miraculously, your slightly-better-than-average performance has you in 1st place in your division. I'm not sure I would brag about that, though. While you have a better-than 70% chance of making it to the playoffs, there's about an 83% chance that you won't make it to the Championship Game. And even if you are fortunate enough to find yourself there, you have about a 5% chance of winning. Maybe quit while you're ahead.
If you're 3-3 right now...you're Tallahassee Tator Tots, Gotham Rogues, Fat Cats, Reek Squad, Deez Nuts, Who Is You, Pork Chop Express, or Baby Got Dak and you're definitely in the majority. That's good and bad. Good because it means you're very much in the playoff mix. Bad because it means that only two of you will come out of this group. And if you somehow overcome the 43.9% odds and make it into the postseason, you have about a 4% lower chance of making it to the final round - and you'll recall from above, their odds weren't very good either.
If you're 2-4 right now...you're Cerebral Ballsy or Consolation Kings and, believe it or not, you're not really much worse off than the group ahead of you. You still have about a 32% chance to being invited to the big dance. And if you make it, you have about an 8% chance of making it to the Championship Game! Isn't that great? Yeah, you're right...it's not.
If you're 1-5 right now...you're lucky you're not 0-6. But, again, you're signed into the wrong league.
If you're 0-6 right now...you're Do Not Panic and you've accomplished something only 7 of 256 teams in league history have ever done. While your accomplishment is remarkable, you're chances of seeing the postseason are not. In fact, they're 0%. No team in the Sagebrush Cactus League has ever started the season 0-6 and made it to the playoffs. Fortunately, for you, the parity around the league this season is unheard of. Keep calm and play on - there's a first time for everything.
Like it or not, folks, there they are; the cold, hard facts explaining how your season will end. Unfortunately, it doesn't appear anyone will win the Championship Game this year. But just for grins, lets play out the rest of the games and see what happens.
Good luck in week 7.
Commish
GOLDEN TICKET CHALLENGE
No one has been able to clear the stench yet. Reek Squad continues to lead the challenge with the lineup twins - Tots & Chops - just off their mark. Los Perros Locos rose from #9 to #5, just behind Baby Got Dak who fell two more spots this week to #4.
SURVIVOR CHALLENGE
When your K outscores all but one player in your starting lineup, you can rest assured you're going to be the next one eliminated from the Survivor Challenge. With the Chop's exit this week, only 7 teams remain. And by earning immunity in week 7, Los Perros Locos ensured they will survive until at least week 8.
PIGSKIN PICK'EM CONTEST
Wow! That was almost a very expensive week for you with 5 teams losing only a single game. In fact, if you didn't do well this week, it's because you only selected the first two games before logging out. Remember, even if you have no chance at winning the contest, it still pays to play: a perfect ticket is worth $10 from every owner in the league.
POWER RANKINGS
Another week and another new #1. Averaging almost 130 pt/gm over their last two, the Golden Tate Warriors overtook the Fat Cats at the top of the rankings. Dropping into the #2 spot, the Cats now have to be on the look out for the dogs. Los Perros Locos saw the largest leap this week, moving from #10 to #3.
COMMISH'S PICKS
Despite picking both games correctly last week, I was off in my assumption the Warriors/Ribbon game would be close. I'll consider it a 1.5 out of 2. This week, I'm going big.
ONE TO WATCH
Baby Got Dak -vs- Pork Chop Express
LINE: Pork Chop Express -16
Sometime the universe saves us from making mistakes. Thanks to the Cowboys bye week, Pork Chop Express will be forced to start Baker Mayfield at QB this week - something that would've given them a win last week. And when you combine that with several other starters coming off their bye weeks, you'll find a Chops team that might be capable of 130+. Right now, you're asking: "So, this will be a blowout?" I'm not so sure. It's true that Dak doesn't have their Bears D/ST or Kmet this week, two starters that were worth 40 points last week. Plus, they have a few stars that are listed as questionable this week. But if I had to pick this game - and I do - I think Taylor and Nabers play, Dak's D/ST does well, someone surprises with a big day, the Chops finish at-or-below their projection and this game ends much closer than anyone expects.
COMMISH'S PICK: Pork Chop Express
ONE TO FORGET
Badazz Bri -vs- Do Not Panic
LINE: Do Not Panic -15
Do Not Panic needs to - at least a little. They're 0-6 and they're averaging a lowly 82.2 pt/gm. To say nothing has gone right for them this year is an understatement. This week, they'll host a 4-2 Badazz Bri team that averages 13 pts/gm more than they do. But for as desperate as Panic might be, Bri isn't - and that's a problem. Sitting with their best record through 6 weeks since 2018, I have to think they've been celebrating a little. And that's the problem. Once they get to partying and drinking, they forget about everything else. Josh Allen will surely be fine this week, however, the rest of their inebriated squad could struggle. Since I went out on a limb with my first pick, I might as well go all in and make another bold prediction in this contest too: take Panic and tease the spread to 3 TDs.
COMMISH'S PICK: Do Not Panic
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