With only 3 weeks remaining in the regular season, there aren't too many surprises left to be found. The cream of the league has, for all intents and purposes, risen to the top leaving us with only one playoff race. Albeit, it's a bit of a long shot.
But first, in the Cactus division, You're Killing Me Smalls and Los Perros Locos have already locked down their invitations to the post-season. All that's left to be settled is who will take the division title, which is little more than bragging rights since both will make the playoffs anyway.
It's difficult not to look ahead and feel a little excited about the playoff matchup between Smalls and Perros. Early in the season - in week 2 - the Perros beat Smalls by 57 runs. But You're Killing Me Smalls took the last 2 contests, in weeks 12 and 17, by 3 and 8 runs, respectively, suggesting their 1st round playoff game should be a very good one.
Over in the Sagebrush division is where we could find ourselves a good ol' fashioned pennant race.
The Tallahassee Tator Tots and Akes and Pain lead the division throughout the season. Both have played well all year long and they have the records to prove it. However, their work is not done yet.
Sitting 4 games behind the Tots and 3 games behind Akes, the Myrtle Beach Mermen are proving to be a thorn in their sides. While Smalls and Perros have the luxury of focusing on their playoff plans over the next few weeks, the Tots and Akes are busy fighting off those pesky Mermen.
Can the Mermen find a way to sneak into the playoffs? In short, yes, though it's not going to be an easy task and they'll need some help.
For starters, the Myrtle Beach Mermen will likely need to win all 3 of their remaining matchups and score enough to earn the bonus each week. Some teams may find that hill too big to climb. Not the Mermen.
Over the last 7 weeks, the Mermen have won 6 of 7 games while averaging 286.9 runs/gm, earning them bonus wins in every week except week 15 when they scored only 188 runs against the Springfield Isotopes...the team they'll play in the final week of the season. They better hope history does not repeat itself.
Perhaps the best thing the Mermen have going for themselves is the fact that all of their remaining games are all under the sea and against divisional opponents, two areas heavily favored when looking at their splits. The Mermen average 281.9 at home versus 272.4 on the road, and their scoring is higher in divisional matchups than inter-league, 278.8 to 270.2.
But like I said, they'll need some help.
The Mermen will also need the Tator Tots and/or Akes and Pain to struggle over the remainder of the season. Before you reject the possibility of that happening, I'm here to tell you that it could - not that it will happen, but just that it could. And yes, I've got the receipts to back it up.
First, let's look into the mystery that is the Tallahassee Tator Tots over the past 4 weeks. Are they winning? Sometimes. The Tots are 2-2 over their last 4 including a crushing loss to the Damn Yankees, 570 - 475, over the week of the All-Star break. Compare that to their 11-2 record through the first 13 weeks, and you could argue they're struggling.
But, if you averaged their 475 runs scored against the Yankees down to an average week of play, that means they scored about 333 runs - a very nice total in any week. And that highlights my second point and the confusing part: the Tots are still scoring - a lot.
Through the first 13 weeks the Tots averaged 312.6 runs/gm, so obviously their average score has dipped over the past 4 weeks explaining their 2-2 record, right?
Nope.
Over the past 4 weeks, the Tallahassee Tator Tots actually increased their average score to 324.3 runs/gm! If you think I made that up, go look for yourself. They've scored more during their 2-2 stint versus when the ripped off 9 wins in a row in weeks 5 through 13 (323.6 runs/gm).
Confusing as that is, it illustrates that, despite their ability to score, the Tots can be beaten. And that's exactly what the Mermen need; the Tots to lose no matter what they score.
Perhaps the better target for the Mermen's sights is Akes and Pain.
For most of the season, Akes and Pain were the team to beat; they had the best record and were one of the top scoring teams in the league. Did you notice I wrote that in the past tense? Of course you did. I can't get anything past you guys.
Through week 11, Akes and Pain were 9-2 and averaged 307.6 runs/gm. But since then, they've dropped 4 of 6 games and their average score has fallen to 282.0 runs/gm. This spells trouble when you're being chased by a Mermen team that is hitting their stride.
If you want to understand Akes and Pain's late season struggles, you really just need to focus on their pitching staff.
"What?!? There pitching? Commish, they're pitchers have put up scores like 178, 197, 160, 175, 202 and 207 this season."
First, spend some time learning about the difference between there, their, and they're.
Second, you're right...but that was before. Since week 12, Akes and Pain's pitchers have been getting roughed up, totaling weekly scores along the lines of 101, 109, 85, and 126. Far, far lower than they were tallying in the early weeks of the season.
The fact is, Akes's pitching coaches will need to address this issue very soon. They're heading into a matchup against a Poke Bananas team with nothing to lose next week before they finish out against the Tator Tots in the final week.
With the sun setting on the regular season, the race between the Tots, Pain and Mermen could be a colorful sight to see.
Best of luck in week 18!
-- Commish
POWER RANKINGS
At this point in the season, the rankings seem they're all but written in stone. The Tator Tots are #1, followed by Los Perros Locos and Akes & Pain and blah, blah, blah...
ALL-STAR LINEUP CHALLENGE
Akes and Pain continues to lead the field by a sizeable margin. And why wouldn't they? Seriously, have you seen their team? Outstanding choices if you ask me.
BATTING CHAMPION & CY YOUNG CHALLENGES
No updates this week. I'll plan to update this contest again next week and then provide the final results at the end of the regular season.
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