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Writer's pictureCommish

Missed Projections

Updated: Sep 18

Week 1 of the new and improved Sagebrush Cactus League kicked off with a whirlwind of excitement, disappointment, and - unsurprisingly, given this crowd - plenty of bad decisions. As expected, some managers lived up to their hype, while others reaffirmed what I already knew: not everyone belongs here. Let’s take a look at the carnage.


The much-anticipated matchup between Gotham Rogues and Los Perros Locos at The Puppy Mill was a prime example of fantasy football at its finest - or worst, depending on how low your standards are. Gotham Rogues scraped by with a 93-80 victory, but let’s be honest, it wasn’t pretty. Rogues' QB, Jordan Love, suffered a leg injury late in his game, and if Love can’t suit up for week 2, the Rogues will have to rely on - *checks notes* - Aaron Rodgers, who put up a pathetic 9 points this week. No big deal, right? Meanwhile, the Locos trotted out DK Metcalf who played like he was in a friendly flag football game. That left AJ Brown to shoulder the burden of the receiving and it was nowhere near enough. Nevertheless, the Perros, true to form, lacked any bite and managed to make the injury-riddled Rogues look pretty good. Perhaps one reason these two teams didn't offer us an exciting contest was because they're preoccupied battling each other in the SCL Baseball Championship Game right now.

"Did I remember to shut off the coffee pot?"
Which are the Rogues more worried about: Mark Andrews' 2 pts or Likely's 23 pts?

MaxxCasualties took to the road to face Deez Nuts in a matchup where the owners could’ve saved us all some time by just flipping a coin. MaxxCasualties won 98-74, but with Patrick Mahomes putting up an uncharacteristic 13 points, they had to rely on a kicker (yes, a kicker) to carry the team. But Brandon Aubrey delivered 21 points - almost more than their entire passing game - and the Casualties were able to come away from The Nut Hut with 24-point victory to start their season. As for Deez Nuts, they’ll be a little sore after this one. Their brilliant strategy of starting a kicker who couldn’t even make extra points while leaving Jake Moody’s 26 points on the bench was a masterclass in poor management. Deez Nuts, indeed.

"I just wanted you to know that I shit the bed this week." - Deez Nuts

At Composure Coliseum this weekend, Do Not Panic, whose name couldn’t have been more appropriate - or ironic - kept their cool despite coming up short. Baby Got Dak barely squeaked out a 4-point win, 106-102, largely thanks to the Bears D/ST, who put up an absurd 34 points, bailing out an otherwise uninspired lineup. Panic’s week was defined by last-minute disaster, as McCaffrey was scratched from the Monday Night game with an injury, forcing them to substitute Kyle "I'd-like-to-buy-a-vowel" Juszczyk into the RB slot. Shocker: Juszczyk didn’t deliver. Though they're probably not panicked yet, I'm sure they're at least a little concerned at the thought of winning the "Most Expensive Bench" prize should McCaffrey have to sit again.

"Neeeeoooowwww"
Panic's Jayden Reed was flying high in week 1 with 138 yds, 2 TDs, and 34 pts.

Blue Ribbon took to the road and absolutely dismantled Fat Cats in a 123-83 shellacking. I'm still not sure if this game was a better indicator of the Ribbon's ability or Cats' inadequacy. Dare I say it might be both? Saquon Barkley’s 35 points were a beautiful reminder of why you don’t need to overthink fantasy football, especially when the other team is busy throwing their draft capital away. Fat Cats apparently thought drafting Drake London for $44 was a good idea despite warnings from Kendrick Lamar. London scored a whopping one point - a tad shy of expectations. Regardless, there's no time for second guessing as the Cats will need to clean up The Litter Box as they prepare to host royalty next week.

“I should not have drafted Drake London.” - Fat Cats

Meanwhile, Badazz Bri made easy work of the defending champions, Pork Chop Express, stomping them 135-98. I assumed they could defeat the Chops, but the fact that Bri saw quality play from unexpected stars like Alec Pierce, who dropped 23 points out of nowhere, should tell you everything you need to know about how this game went. Aside from their D/ST, the Pork Chop Express looked stalled out. It was such an off day, benched QB Baker Mayfield, who put up 35 points, nearly triple the output of their starting QB, Dak Prescott. And though it didn't factor into the outcome, decisions like that are not how you want to start your journey in defending your crown.


Down at The Stank Tank, Reek Squad mashed the Tallahassee Tator Tots, 113-99 in a game where they were a 5-point underdog at home. Reek Squad's WR Tyreek Hill put up 26 points shortly after receiving 3 points on his driver's license for speeding on the way to work. But that's old news. The real story is the Tator Tots, who managed to build a roster so uninspiring that they couldn’t overcome the Squad’s mediocrity. The Vikings D/ST delivered 31 points, but with Jared Goff and Bijan Robinson under performing and Marvin Harrison Jr. posting a glorious goose egg in his NFL debut, it’s clear that the Tots’ strategy is still frozen in the middle.

Can I say it? Yeah, of course I can say it! Who Is You did exactly what I predicted: they steamrolled the Golden Tate Warriors in a 123-92 beatdown. Seven of You's players - spoken in my best Joe Pesci voice - hit or exceeded their projections because, unlike some of the other clowns in this league, You appears to actually know what they’re doing. The Warriors, of course, left 26 points from Jameson Williams rotting on the bench. But hey, maybe they’ll get it together next week. Then again...


Finally, there’s Cerebral Ballsy, whose name may sound intimidating, but their performance was anything but. Ballsy fell 94-75 to the Consolation Kings, thanks to QB Caleb Williams scoring a pathetic 6 points in his over-hyped NFL debut. Not even an impressive 25-point effort from the Chargers D/ST could save Ballsy. The Kings didn’t exactly set the world on fire either, but when your opponent hands you a win like this, you take it. On a side note, I think Ballsy needs to stop hanging around with Mike Lindell.

"My defense dominated, Deebo Samuel purposefully committed a holding call on Jordan Mason's touchdown run so he could get the ball the next play and score, which hurt me because [the Kings] has deebo [sic]." - Cerebal Ballsy

So, Week 1 is in the books, and while some of you managed to avoid total humiliation, the writing is already on the wall for a few of you. I'll be watching closely, though, because, as we all know, things will probably get worse before they get better.


Good luck in week 2!


Commish

 

GOLDEN TICKET CHALLENGE

I honestly shouldn't be surprised to find Baby Got Dak leading this challenge after the first week. It's no secret, Dak has done well in this contest throughout the years and their 165 pts is 11 more than second place, Golden Tate Warriors.



 

SURVIVOR CHALLENGE

If you read the league rules - and I know you did - then you already know two teams will be eliminated each round instead of the usual one through the first 3 weeks. In week 1, those two teams were Cerebral Ballsy (75 pts) and Deez Nuts (74 pts). Yes folks, Ballsy Nuts have been removed. And if you want proof that anyone can change, Badazz Bri earned immunity for week 2 with league-leading 135 pts. With a guaranteed spot into week 3 of this contest, Bri is entering into undiscovered territory.



 

PIGSKIN PICK'EM CONTEST

That was as close as you can cut it. The Consolation Kings nearly played a perfect ticket in week 1, losing only a single game. Bet you can't guess which game it was. In 19 previous seasons, only one team has ever submitted a perfect ticket: Chief Sticky Balls over *mumbled noises* years ago, back in the 20 *more mumbled noises* season. Reminder: if you submit a perfect ticket, each owner in the league must pay you $10. That's a $150 prize if you're still looking for your calculator.


 

ELIMINATOR CHALLENGE

The same team that ruined the Kings' chance at a perfect Pick'Em ticket is the same team that wiped out two-thirds of our league in the Eliminator Challenge: the Bengals. With 10 teams eliminated in the first week, the contest is already down to 6 remaining contestants. This thing might be over faster than a Defeat The Commish Challenge. Apologies if some of your are still experiencing PTSD from that league experiment.



 

COMMISH'S PICKS

I didn't do too bad last week. I pick both games correctly, though I didn't expect the One To Watch game to get out of hand. Here are my guaranteed winners in week 2:


ONE TO WATCH

Deez Nuts -vs- Los Perros Locos

LINE: Deez Nuts -1

This should be one of the closest contests this week. Not because these teams are so similar, but because their strengths and weaknesses are in opposite areas. Deez Nuts will drop into The Puppy Mill with a stronger running game among the two and they'll certainly use that to try to control the clock. The Perros, however, will lean on their QB and WRs to make big plays and force the Nuts to abandon the run. If you're keeping score at home, that means the difference should be in three areas: TE, D/ST, and K. Having just shipped off Kittle, Deez Nuts now have a slight disadvantage at TE. Some people might suggest Perros normally has the stronger D/ST by a small margin. But not this week, when the Nuts D/ST draws a very weak opponent lead by rookie QB, Bo Nix. That leaves us with the Ks: Jake "The Booter" Moody versus Greg "The Leg" Zuerlein. If last week was any indication of what to expect, grab Deez Nuts and give the point.

COMMISH'S PICK: Deez Nuts


ONE TO FORGET

Blue Ribbon vs Do Not Panic

LINE: Blue Ribbon -30

You read that right; Do Not Panic is the underdog by more than 4 TDs...at home! And there's probably good reason. After last week's shocking last-minute news Christian McCaffrey wouldn't be able to take the field, a lot of rumors are floating around that he may not play again in week 2. That essentially leaves Lamar Jackson to carry the entire team, assuming Jayden Reed regresses to the mean this week. Can those two players put up some points? Of course. Can they put up enough to outscore Anthony Richardson, De'Von Achane, Saquon Barkley, David Montgomery, Jordan Mason (if CMC doesn't play), Amari Cooper, and Isaiah Likely? Don't get cute. When the bettors tell you this is over before it begins, listen to them. They still may not feel panicked after this game, but Panic's level of concern will increase to troubled.

COMMISH'S PICK: Blue Ribbon


 

POWER RANKINGS

No, you're not halucinating, Badazz Bri takes over the top spot in the week 1 Power Rankings. Lurking right behind at #2 and #3 are two teams that gained several spots behind quality performances: Blue Ribbon and Who Is You. Baby Got Dak was the only team that was able to crawl out of the cellar this week, moving up 7 spots to #7.





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