LINE: Baby Got Dak -25
COMMISH'S PICK: Baby Got Dak
LINE: Blue Ribbon -13
COMMISH'S PICK: Blue Ribbon
LINE: Team RamRod -44
COMMISH'S PICK: Team RamRod
LINE: Who Is You -31
COMMISH'S PICK: Who Is You
LINE: Los Perros Locos -9
COMMISH'S PICK: Los Perros Locos
LINE: Pork Chop Express -27
Two of the highest scoring teams in the league square off in the 15th Sagebrush Cactus League Championship Game. Although these teams are similar in a number of ways, the road to this contest was different for each.
Chief Sticky Balls began their season with a pair of wins out of the gate, putting them into an early tie with Hein!!! for the division lead. However, weeks 2 through 6 would see them fall far behind the rest of the division on the back of a 4-game losing streak. Seemingly down-and-out, Chief Sticky Balls turned themselves around and went on to win 6 of their next 7 games despite seeing their average weekly output drop from 108.5 pts/gm to 107.7 pts/gm.
Pork Chop Express came out of the draft with C+ grade and looked like a team that would remain on the fence most of the season. After about 10 minutes, that all changed. The Chops began the season as one of the hottest teams in the league with their 5-1 record after 6 weeks. However, in weeks 7 through 10, they would lose 3 of 4 games and briefly surrender the Cactus division lead to Who Is You. But it appears that week 10 loss was the spark they needed as they haven't lost a game since.
The Pork Chops have played well against Sticky Balls winning 6 of 9 contests all-time. But the story is different when the Chops play host. On the road against the Chops, Sticky Balls has a slight upper-hand, with a 3-2 record and an average final score of 117.6 - 112 in their favor.
When these two faced off in week 6, Pork Chop Express came out on top in a high-scoring affair, 136 - 131. What is impressive about that game is the fact that both teams were hampered by injuries and bye weeks. Sticky Balls held their own without their premier running backs, Barkley and Jacobs, while the Chops were able to put up their 2nd highest point total of the season with Gardner Minshew (3 pts) at the helm.
I think the most insightful data surrounding this matchup can be found within the past 4 weeks. Chief Sticky Balls finished out the regular season with scores of 96 and 75 before coming back to life with 142 points in the Sagebrush Division Championship. Their average score over the past 4 weeks is 105 pts/gm. On the other hand, Pork Chop Express has averaged 145.5 pts/gm with a pair of 150+ over the past 4 weeks.
It's a terrible time for Chief Sticky Balls to be without Josh Jacobs, but I think they still have enough firepower to put up at least 110 points this week. The problem is that they're facing a Pork Chops team that is firing on all cylinders and ready to lay claim to their first SCL title after coming up short in 2011 and 2013.
In the end, I think Pork Chop Express defeats Chief Sticky Balls 136 - 112.
COMMISH'S PICK: Pork Chop Express
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