LINE: Blue Ribbon -18
COMMISH'S PICK: Blue Ribbon
LINE: Badazz Bri -1
COMMISH'S PICK: NH Bounty Hunters
LINE: Team RamRod -9
COMMISH'S PICK: Thundabuddies
LINE: Who Is You -15
COMMISH'S PICK: Who Is You
LINE: Chief Sticky Balls -5
This meeting marks the first time Flash Dem TD's and Chief Sticky Balls will face each other in postseason play. If this were a regular season game, you could probably go ahead and just give TD's the win right now. In four previous contests, Sticky Balls are 0-4 against Flash Dem TD's, with their last loss being a 9-point defeat back in week 3 of this season. But while TD's has had the upper hand in face-to-face matchups, Sticky Balls is no easy mark. This season, the Balls held their own against their Sagebrush brethren finishing with a 5-2 record and an average score of 110.2 pts/gm in divisional play. For the sake of comparison, Flash Dem TD's finished 4-3 in divisional play with an average score of 105.3 pts/gm. As you can see, there is little separating these two and the fact that Chief Sticky Balls is hosting the game doesn't seem to matter much either. Though Sticky Balls finished with a respectable 4-2 home record, Flash Dem TD's was equally impressive with their 4-2 record on the road this season. A deeper dive into their rosters shows us that TD's has more players ranked in the top 10 at their position than Sticky Balls does, 6 to 3 respectively. However, Sticky Balls has had better talent overall as they averaged 112.6 pts/gm to TD's 106.6 pts/gm during the regular season. In what should be a close game with each team barely topping the 100-point threshold, I'm going to put my money on the defending champs.
COMMISH'S PICK: Flash Dem TD's
LINE: Pork Chop Express -7
These two teams have combined for a total of 11 appearances in the Cactus Division Championship Game with Los Perros Locos holding a 7 to 4 advantage. However, they have only ever faced each other once before. In 2014, Los Perros Locos got the better of Pork Chop Express, 115 to 106, on their way to winning a 3rd league title. In their only contest this season, the Pork Chops defeated Perros in week 5 in what was a very close game, 100 to 97. But that was back before Perros found their stride. Since that game, the Perros has gone on to become the top scoring team in the league, averaging 124.2 pts/gm. Interestingly, it just so happens the Chops are the 2nd highest scoring team in the league which gives this matchup the potential to be a high scoring affair. A quick look at their rosters helps explain the success these two have had this season. Pork Chop Express rosters 6 players ranked in the top 10 at their position, and 3 in the top 5. Conversely, the Perros roster features 9 top-10 players with 6 of those players ranked in the top 5 at their position. But given all of the analysis above, I'm struggling to square two contradictory data points: (A) Los Perros is only 2-5 against Cactus teams this season, where the Chops are 5-2, and (B) Los Perros Locos is 6-3 all-time when visiting the Pork Chops with an average final score of 112.7 to 98.9. In a meeting of two teams more than capable of scoring, the difference maker could be defensive play. I expect this game to be another 3-point contest with Perros coming out on top this time around.
COMMISH'S PICK: Los Perros Locos
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