With 6 weeks of the season behind us, you probably already know what's coming next. You already know I'm not going to spend time writing about last week's games where 4 teams in the Sagebrush Cactus League won despite scoring less than 100 points. I'm also not going to spend a minute investigating any of the reasons why the Disgruntled Runningbacks scored 114 fewer points in week 6 than they did in week 5.
Am I going to write about the fact that 3 of the top 4 scorers in week 6 were Dolphins - Mostert, Tua, and Hill - or that, after scoring just 1 point in week 1, Adam Thielen is the 6th best WR so far this season? Not a chance.
And you'll excuse me if I don't bother addressing the concerns some teams are dealing with because 4 of the top 6 RBs this season are injured and could possibly miss a number of games, if they haven't already.
Instead, I think we'll use this post to tell you, definitively, whether you'll win the championship or find yourself fighting off relegation. As I've done after week 6 of every season, I've compiled all of league's historical data - because I know you won't - and calculated your odds of making the playoffs, earning a trip to your league's Championship Game, and bringing home the title.
Now before you go popping off at me about how much better your team is than your 2-4 record indicates, please note: numbers don't lie. Can you join the few that started 2-4 but went on to win the Championship Game? Sure...but, probably not.
Without delay, here's the table:
If you're 6-0 right now...you're Baby Got Dak and you're only the 6th team in league history to accomplish that feat. Think about that for a moment...after 19 seasons, 256 teams, and 1566 games played, there have only been 5 other teams to begin their season undefeated through 6 weeks. Congratulations. All 5 of the teams that came before you made the playoffs, and 4 of them earned a first-round bye with 3 of them continuing on to win the Championship Game. I'll go ahead and start engraving the trophy.
If you're 5-1 right now...you're Pork Chop Express, MaxxCasualties, or TJONES35 and you're all-but-certain to make the playoffs. Of the 31 teams in the past that began with a 5-1 record, only 1 missed the playoffs - the 2014 Carson City Facepalmers - and 13 of them were given the opportunity to claim the league crown. However, once you make it to the Championship Game, it's out of my hands...you literally have a 50/50 shot at taking the title.
If you're 4-2 right now...you're the Consolation Kings, Disgruntled Runningbacks, Ohio State Gunkeyes, or Jalenhouse Rock and you're in an enviable position. The odds are that you'll make it to the postseason since 72.9% of teams that started 4-2 in the past did just that. However, I'll give you fair warning that the road gets pretty rough when you get there. Of the 35 teams that were in your position, only 3 of them won the ultimate prize.
If you're 3-3 right now...you're the Golden Tate Warriors, Jergoff Passout, Thundabuddies, NH Bounty Hunters, Get In D Carr, or Belichicks Hoodie and you're about as average as it gets. Based on league history, you have about a 43% chance of making the playoffs, a 13.3% chance of playing for a championship, and a 6.7% chance of taking home the hardware. Look amongst yourselves - only 2 of you are moving on and the other 4 are going home. But don't feel bad if you aren't one of the 2 teams that make the playoffs...the ones that do won't win it anyway.
If you're 2-4 right now...you're Digg-A-Watts, Do Not Panic, Los Perros Locos, Who Is You, Burrowito Bowl, Tallaassee Tator Tots, Shiva Kaminis, or Gotham Rogues and the odds are stacked against you. Of the 55 teams that began their season 2-4, only 17 made the playoffs. And if, by some miracle, you're able to defy your 30.9% chance and find yourself invited to the postseason, don't get your hopes up. Only 2 teams that started with a 2-4 record were able to turn their season around to win it all, Chief Sticky Balls in 2019 and last year's champion, Baby Got Dak.
If you're 1-5 right now...you're Badazz Bri and you've been here before...in 2008 and 2021. In fact, over the past 5 seasons your record through the first 6 weeks is 6-24. No, that's not a typo. Your odds of making the playoffs sit around 11% with a 3.7% chance of making it to the title game. On the bright side, according to league history, if you do manage to run the table and play in the Championship Game, you'll be following in the footsteps of Who Is You in 2020 and you'll win.
If you're 0-6 right now...you're Ridley's Parlays and your accomplishment is nearly as extraordinary as Dak's. Throughout the long history of this league, there have only been 6 other teams that were winless at this point. The bad news is that none of those teams made the playoffs. The good news is that you could be the first...if you play your cards right.
Good luck in week 7!
Commish
GOLDEN TICKET CHALLENGE
The NH Bounty Hunters remain within striking distance of our current leader, Baby Got Dak, while Do Not Panic lost ground, falling from 49 to 71 points behind. Don't look now, but there appears to be a dark horse sneaking up on the field, Jalenhouse Rock. Rock entered the week at #8, but rose to #5 after big games from Tyreek Hill, Amon-Ra St Brown, and Justin Tucker.
Falling further from contention, the Thundabuddies saw several of their players struggle in week 6 taking them from #6 down to #10.
The injuries are beginning to have an impact on this contest. Last week was the first for 14 owners without Justin Jefferson. Should McCaffrey miss any time with his injury, we could see several fall far enough behind that they won't be able to catch up.
SURVIVOR CHALLENGE
The NH Bounty Hunters looked more like Elmer Fudd, scoring only 71 points in a losing effort and finding themselves out of the Survivor Challenge in the Sagebrush Cactus League.
Immunity finally claimed its first victim: Belichicks Hoodie. Though the Disgruntled Runningbacks were the lowest scoring team in the Segundo League last week, they were safe thanks to their record-setting score in week 5. Next up: Hoodie.
Immunity for week 7 belongs to Baby Got Dak and Get In D Carr.
PIGSKIN PICK'EM CONTEST
Slow and steady wins the race, right? Maybe that's why Do Not Panic was able to overtake Jalenhouse Rock for the top spot after tallying 12 correct picks last week. Jalenhouse joins the Tator Tots in the #2 spot, 1 pick off the lead.
If you're counting at home, there are 10 teams within 5 picks of Do Not Panic which means this contest is shaping up to be a photo finish.
ELIMINATOR CHALLENGE
I was quite surprised that the upsets of the Eagles and 49ers last week only claimed 1 of you. I was certain more of you would select those teams, but you're a wily bunch, aren't you?
Though they shocked all of us when they correctly picked the Lions over the Chiefs in week 1 - I'm still blown away by the guts that took - Baby Got Dak got smacked when the Jets defeated the Eagles this week.
Looking at the NFL schedule this week, something tells me we're going to see a few entries fall. There might be only 1 or 2 matchups that seem like safe bets...but they're only open to the owners who haven't already used those teams.
COMMISH'S PICKS
Week 6 proved to be my worst week since the season opener. With a 3-3 record in both leagues last week, overall record sits at 46-26 for the season. But don't worry. I've seen the error of my ways and I'm ready to bounce back in week 7.
POWER RANKINGS
The top 5 in the Sagebrush Cactus League did not change at all, but there was some shake up just below. Who Is You saw the greatest improvement, moving from #9 to #6 after pulling off the upset again the Bounty Hunters. Also because of that, the Bounty Hunters joined Los Perros Locos in falling 2 spots, to #8 and #9.
As quickly as the Disgruntled Runningbacks jumped into the #1 spot last week, Jalenhouse Rock took it away from them. Beyond the swap at the top of the rankings, there was very little movement as teams seem to be settling into their ranks.
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