Due to overwhelming public demand, I'm going to switch up this week's post a little bit. If you've been around this league long enough, you probably already know what's coming.
I'm not going to have the time to highlight the fact that if Joe Burrow is your starting QB, you're probably looking really good this season....like first-place good. Just take a look at the Sagebrush and Yucca division leaders, Jergoff Passout and The Real Slim Brady, who each notched another win on the back of a league-leading performance from Burrow (42 and 43.5 pts) this week.
And if this were a normal weekly recap, I would definitely spend some time analyzing how a 2-3 Who Is You team grounded the Diggs/Kupp ariel attack to give the Thundabuddies their first loss of the season. But I can't, so I also won't bother telling you that they held the Buddies to their lowest score of the season, 73 points.
If you thought this was the lowest scoring week of the season in both leagues, I'd love to be able to assure you that you're right. Also, if I had the time, I'd point out that the Segundo league, as a whole, scored almost 140 points less than they normally do while the Sagebrush Cactus league, as a whole, scored 233 points less than normal.
And since the scoring was way down in both leagues, you probably already know that nine teams - 5 in Sagebrush Cactus and 4 in Segundo - tallied their lowest scores of the season so far. So I won't bother going into that either.
Because you already figured that part out on your own, I don't need to write about the fact that Najee Germany, Badazz Bri and Consolation Kings all won their games despite scoring only 79, 78 and 80 points, respectively. It is, however, worth noting Najee Germany did pay a price for their skimpy victory. More about that after we get through the crux of this post.
Normally, this would be the part of the post where I would point out two teams that have lost three straight and look like they're in big trouble. Baby Got Dak and My Chubb's Hardman are both averaging only 90.6 pts/gm during their 3-game losing streak and seem desperate to get some of their star players healthy again.
Nope. I don't have time to write about any of that. Instead, I need to stay focused addressing the onslaught of emails and late-night texts asking me the same thing: Are you going to make the playoffs?
All day and all night:
"Hey, Commish, I'm 3-3...am I going to make the playoffs?"
"I only have one loss. Do you have the correct spelling of my name for the trophy?"
"Dear omniscient one, mathematically speaking, 1-5 teams are still playoff eligible, right?"
OK, fine...I'm not 100% sure anyone has actually asked me that yet. I haven't checked my email in a couple of days.
Regardless, I'm going to give you what I always give you in week 6: your odds of making and winning in the playoffs based on your current record.
Why do I always present this in week 6? Is it because it's significant for some unknown reason? Nah...it's just something I started doing years ago and decided to keep it up throughout the years. You're welcome.
For those of you new to the league, I'll give you a quick primer on how you should read this table. Reading the first row, left to right, there have been five teams that began their season 6-0 throughout the entire history of the league. Of those five teams, all of them (100%) made it to the playoffs and four (80%) earned a first-round bye. Further to the right you'll see that three (60%) of the five teams made it to the Championship Game and won.
So what are the odds that your team will make it to the post season and win the title?
At 5-1, The Real Slim Brady, Thundabuddies, and Jergoff Passout can all plan on playing in the postseason. With only 1 of 28 teams in league history failing to make the playoffs after beginning the season with five wins in six games, the odds are clearly in their favor.
Moreover, there's an almost 40% chance that they will make it to the Championship Game. And since we now know it will probably be Thundabuddies versus Jergoff Passout in the Sagebrush Cactus league, the only question that remains is: who will play The Real Slim Brady for the inaugural Segundo championship?
If you're the Tallaassee[SIC] Tator Tots, We're on to Cleveland!, or the NH Bounty Hunters, your odds of making it to the playoffs are also pretty good - 77.8% to be exact. Of the 45 teams in league history that started with a 4-2 record, 35 of them made it to the playoffs with 9 of those teams making it all the way to the title match.
Since the Tots are in the same division as Slim Brady, they'll have a more difficult path to the Championship Game than Cleveland! who sits atop a group of divisional rivals that can't seem to decide if they're good or not.
If you're 3-3 after six weeks, you're not good. But, you're not bad, either. You're just ordinary and you have plenty of company: The Golden Tate Warriors, Chief Sticky Balls, Who Is You, Pork Chop Express, Chubby Chase, Ohio State Gunkeyes, Keenan and Kel-ce, TJONES35, and Najee Germany.
With a .500 win average, some of you might guess you'd have a 50/50 shot at a playoff spot. But you'd be wrong and you're not very good at math, either.
Your odds of making it to the postseason, based on league history, are actually a little more than 41%. However, if you can make it to the playoffs and if you can win your way to the title game, your odds of claiming the crown are almost as good as teams that are 4-2. But those are big "ifs".
Nine unfortunate souls find themselves at 2-4 and there's no sense in sugarcoating it: the odds are not in your favor. Of the 46 teams in league history that started the season with only 2 wins, 13 made it to the playoffs only 1 of those teams won the championship.
The nine teams in that category are: the Consolation Kings, Do Not Panic, Badazz Bri, Baby Got Dak, Los Perros Locos, Jalenhouse Rock, Shiva Kaminis, BattleBornKid, and My Chubb's Hardman.
If we were to use the table above to extrapolate the likelihood of those nine teams, we'd find that 0.49% of one of those teams will make the playoffs, 0.11% of one of them will make it to the Championship Game, and 0.03% of one of them will hoist the trophy.
Statistically speaking, not one of them will survive beyond the regular season. They can all go ahead and plan that family vacation for the third week of December while everyone else is bothered trying to win a championship.
There you have it, the 2022 Sagebrush Cactus League and SCL Segundo playoff picture. There's really no need to play this out any further. But if you guys insist, I guess we can continue the season just to see what happens.
GOLDEN TICKET CHALLENGE
The Golden Tate Warriors overtook Thundabuddies for the #1 spot in the contest this week and now lead the rest of the pack by, at least, 32 points. The Tallaassee[SIC] Tator Tots and Pork Chop Express are currently 60 and 70 points behind. With the bye weeks now in full swing, it's likely that we'll see more movement on the leader board in the coming weeks.
SURVIVOR CHALLENGE
As I mentioned earlier, Najee Germany won their game despite scoring only 79 points. I hope the win felt good because they paid a hefty price: being eliminated from the Survivor Challenge in the SCL Segundo league.
In the Sagebrush Cactus league, Chief Sticky Balls saw their Survivor Challenge run come to an end with only 59 points against Badazz Bri. While that is an absolutely abysmal score, it isn't their worst. Their worst game in team history was back in week 7 of 2015 when they only scored 49 points against - drum roll, please - Badazz Bri.
With high scores this week, immunity for week 7 belongs to Jergoff Passout (116 pts) and The Real Slim Brady (133 pts).
PIGSKIN PICK'EM CHALLENGE
Only six owners finished the week having chosen more than 50% correctly. With a league-best 9 correct picks this week, the Golden Tate Warriors moved into a tie for the contest lead with We're on to Cleveland!. The Thundabuddies remain two games off the lead with Badazz Bri and Ohio State Gunkeyes sitting at three and four games back.
ELIMINATOR CHALLENGE
All good things must come to an end. The NH Bounty Hunters selected the 49ers this week and saw their five week Eliminator streak broken. Congrats on getting to week 6. While that might not much to brag about, it's still twice as good as any other member of the league.
WEEKLY SCORE WINNERS
Highest Score: Jergoff Passout (116) and The Real Slim Brady (133)
Highest Score - Loss: Golden Tate Warriors (103) and Jalenhouse Rock (124)
Lowest Score - Win: Badazz Bri (78) and Najee Germany (79)
COMMISH'S PICKS
Let's no talk about it.
Good luck in week 7!
-- Commish
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