I'm gonna be honest with you for a minute. I've never really enjoyed week 1 of the fantasy season much. Why? I'm glad you asked.
In the weeks leading up to the first week, analysts and soothsayers pontificate about all of the amazing things players will accomplish in their season opener: "I've been watching this offense during the off-season and [insert player name] is ready to explode" or "[insert player name] is playing against a tough defense and probably won't accomplish much." Phooey, I say.
After the games are played, you look back and realize that they were probably right on about 50% of their predictions...a coin toss, really. Why? Because week 1 is really just a little more than a fourth pre-season game. There's no real data to work with other than what we saw in the pre-season and teams certainly aren't going to reveal more than they have to.
Do projections become more accurate later in the season? Sure, because there's a lot more real data to work with. As we learn more about team and player tendencies, we can better predict what they'll do.
And if you haven't already figured out what I'm trying to say, let me spell it out for you: just forget about what happened in week 1 alone.
It's natural to worry when your team scores below 80 points. But ask yourself: is Burrow really going to only score 3 points on a regular basis? Has Lamar Jackson lost his swagger and 5 points is now something we should regularly expect from him? Is Adam Thielen worth only a point or two each week?
Actually, Thielen might only be worth that...but you get the point.
The fact is that there are a lot of talented players that start the season slowly - it happens every year.
Last year, DeVonta Smith scored 0 points in the first week and Josh Jacobs scored 7. Based on those performances in isolation, you'd have to guess they didn't play that well last season. Quite the contrary, they finished among the leaders at their positions and I'm sure most of you wished they were on your team.
To be sure, you can argue the same for some of the players that had a great first week. Tyreek Hill is very good, but if you think he can maintain anywhere near 38 pts/wk, you should stop reading this article and immediately go make a trade for him.
Mac Jones was the top scoring QB in week 1...how many more weeks do you think he finishes as the top QB? And, how 'bout them Cowboys? Can we expect 50+ points from them again this season? Maybe, but I have my doubts.
As I look around the league, I can see several teams the might be feeling a little down about their player's performance.
Jergoff Passout scored only 90 points despite having Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson. But if you ask me, they're probably much better than that. Dak Prescott and Saquon Barkley scored only 11 points, combined. That won't happen very often and I think they'll bounce right back.
The Los Perros Locos fell to the newest team in the league, Digg-A-Watts, primarily because Joe Burrow posted his lowest fantasy score ever, 3 points. And that meant Ja'Marr Chase was going to have a terrible day too.
As soon as the Consolation Kings figure out that Tyler Allgeier might be more helpful in their starting lineup, the sooner I think they end up on the winning side of the scoreboard. After all, Justin Fields, Tee Higgins, and Davante Adams are likely going to produce more than what they did last week.
And if you're the Gotham Rogues, just know that your D/ST probably won't net you negative points each week.
The fact that the Tallaassee Tator Tots just lost J.K. Dobbins, might actually be to their benefit. With several talented RBs sitting on their bench, the loss of Dobbins reduces their opportunity to make the wrong choice each week...though they still might.
It's no fun to lose your first game. But if you did, don't worry...not yet, at least. Use caution in analyzing your week 1 player performances, make adjustments where necessary, and look for better weeks ahead.
Conversely, if you won on the heels of some outstanding - and unusual - scoring, be careful. Those high scores could very well be the exception, not the rule. Ride them while you can and be ready to react if/when they fall off.
Before I close out this article, I should point out one team that genuinely surprised me and has me curious about what they might be able to do this season: MaxxCasualties.
The preseason projections and draft analysis were not very kind to the Casualties. Based on what all those talented analysts projected, they were supposed to be one of worst teams this season. A league casualty, if you will.
Well, they just scored 131 points last week and defeated a very talented Ridley's Parlays team that had a lot of money riding on the outcome. If I were in the Segundo League, this is a team I might want to keep an eye on.
Good luck this week!
Commish
GOLDEN TICKET CHALLENGE
It appears my plan to force you all to consider other players outside of the top 2 or 3 at each position has worked. By far, this is the most variance I've ever seen among the rosters in this contest.
For example, last season I might've seen just 2 different TEs: Kelce and Andrews. This year, we have 8 different TEs appearing on rosters. And though Kelce is still the most common, he only accounts for about 39% of TEs selected. Normally, he would be on all but 1 or 2 rosters.
Another position that usually didn't offer a great amount of variety: QB. In a normal season, we'd usually see a lot of rosters featuring Josh Allen with the occasional Burrow, Hurts, or Herbert mixed in for good measure. We might have also seen 1 roster with Mahomes. Why only 1? Because everyone already used Kelce and you can't have more than 1 player from any NFL team.
This year, though, there are a total of 10 different play-callers being used...and Josh Allen is only on 2 of our . Heck, we even have a roster with Mac Jones at QB! Yes, that Mac Jones.
If you're interested, you can CLICK HERE to view some statistics regarding the players that owners selected and the number of rosters they appear on.
While I could go on analyzing stats like those listed above, you're probably thinking "Let's go, Commish. Enough with the math already. Who's leading this thing?"
If you had the Cowboys D/ST, Mac Jones, or Tua Tagovailoa, congratulations...you're doing very well. That group would include our early leader, Baby Got Dak, as well others just behind like Ridley's Parlays, Do Not Panic, and NH Bounty Hunters.
If you went with a more traditional approach of selecting the top players at every position, you're likely somewhere in the middle or lower half of the standings. This will likely change as the season progresses and some of the top players begin to perform to their expectations.
SURVIVOR CHALLENGE
For the first time in 3 years, the Los Perros Locos survived to the 2nd round of the Sagebrush Cactus League Survivor Challenge. Taking over the honor this year, Badazz Bri posted a miserable 63 points and were given their eviction notice.
In a week where scores were down, the Pork Chop Express earned immunity for week 2 with 115 points...an average score in most weeks.
In the Segundo League, the week 2 immunity protection will go to Jalenhouse Rock who tallied a league-best 148 points. Newcomers, Gotham Rogue, received a harsh welcome by being eliminated from the Survivor Challenge with just 64 pts in the first week of play.
PIGSKIN PICK'EM CONTEST
The first round of our Pick'Em contest gives us a familiar name at the top of the leaderboard. The Pork Chop Express rolled out of the station with 11 correct picks pitting them in a tie for the lead with Do Not Panic. Four other teams - Jalenhouse Rock, Gotham Rogues, TJONES35, and Ohio State Gunkeyes - also chose well with 10 correct picks.
Bringing up the rear is Baby Got Dak who struggled with only 6 of 16 correct picks.
ELIMINATOR CHALLENGE
The Seahawks, Bills, and Vikings combined to remove 6 teams from our Eliminator Challenge in the first week. But, perhaps the most surprising to me was the Chiefs loss costing Jalenhouse Rock their opportunity at the contest prize.
Also surprising was the fact that 2 owners were eliminated, not because they chose a losing team but, because they didn't choose a team at all.
Before I go, I think it's worth pointing out the cojones Baby Got Dak showed in choosing the Lions as their week 1 Eliminator pick. That was a gutsy call. Admittedly, I had my doubts when it was revealed, but they obviously knew something I didn't. Well done.
COMMISH'S PICKS
I can already see that you guys are going to make this difficult for me. That's OK, I'm up for the challenge.
In the Sagebrush Cactus League, I was able to come away with a respectable 4-2 record. However, the Segundo League decided to get cute and deliver me only 2 of my 6 picks, leaving me with a 6-6 record overall.
On the bright side, I was able to correctly pick both Matchup of the Week games.
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