LINE: Jergoff Passout -9
Both teams in The Beginner's Bowl are under new management after their previous owners threw in the towel. And who can blame them, really? This league is enough to drive the steadiest of mind into fits of insanity. Each of these new owners has taken a different management approach to start their tenure. Jergoff recognized that bringing back top talent like Kamara, Kittle, and Kyler Murray would be a solid foundation to build upon while it appears Do Not Panic didn't exactly live up to their moniker. And although Panic threw out everything but the kitchen sink upon acquisition, they eventually brought back Chris Godwin as well as their pièce de résistance, kicker, Daniel "Crazy Legs" Carlson. That move alone is surely gonna translate to some wins this season, right? Right?!? Regardless, with so many new faces, new coaching schemes, and no league history to refer to, it's easy to see why this matchup offers one of the biggest point spreads this week. Bettors have nothing to work with except pure speculation. The sports books are all over the place on this one. On paper, Jergoff appears to have the advantage, but I think Panic is a better team than they're getting credit for and I expect they'll surprise some this season. Still, I'm taking Jergoff to win but I'd hard pressed to give more than 5 points.
COMMISH'S PICK: Jergoff Passout
LINE: Thunda Buddies -1
The line on this game was less than I expected when you consider Baby Got Dak is 0-2 when visiting Flash Gordon Field. Oh, did I mention the average final score of those two visits was 62.5 to 119? That's an average 56-point margin of victory for Buddies. However, it's also worth noting that the last time these two met was on Dak's turf where they defeated the Buddies 139-110. In that meeting, during week 13 of last season, Robert Woods and Matt Stafford scored a combined 43 points with Travis Kelce pitching in another 23. They'll certainly need that level of production, and probably more, if they're going to grab their first victory on the road against the Buddies. In that same game, Aaron Jones and Calvin Ridley contributed 41 points and I expect we'll see them have similar performances this time around. With the addition of Antonio Gibson and a favorable week 1 matchup for the Patriots D/ST, I wouldn't be surprised to see Thunda Buddies top 120 points. The question is whether or not Dak can keep up. Unfortunately, this time I don't see them scoring anything close to the 139 points from their last contest. In fact, I think scoring more that 100 points would exceed my expectations. Don't be fooled by that point spread. Take the Thunda Buddies with confidence.
COMMISH'S PICK: Thunda Buddies
LINE: Christian McMingle -9
If you enjoy record-level scoring, this is the game for you. I'm not speaking about the total score for both teams though. While Badazz Bri has averaged a respectable 117-points-per-game when hosting McMingle, you absolutely can not forget what happened during McMingle's last two visits to the Drink 'Em If You Got 'Em Dome. Oh? You don't remember? Well, let me refresh your memory. In their 2019 visit, when they were known as Team RamRod, McMingle set the league-record for scoring in a single game with 233 points. The following year, when they returned, they became the only team to break the 200-point mark a second time with a soul-crushing 205 point performance. So what will they score this time? 214? 543? 37429? The fact is that Bri has lost each of their last 3 meetings against McMingle, including the aforementioned defensive disasters. But before that, they were 7-0. And they certainly haven't forgotten those 200-point games either. I expect we'll see a different Bri team this time around and you know I'm a big fan of the upset. Put me down for the underdog and I'll happily take your points.
COMMISH'S PICK: Badazz Bri
LINE: Los Perros Locos -6
The dogs have lost their last 4 meetings against Pork Chop Express - 5 if you include playoff games. Needless to say, it's been a while since they've had a good outing against the Chops. Adding insult to injury, Los Perros Locos have been outscored by an average of 37 points in those games. If they're going to give themselves any chance at a victory, they'll need to get more out of Miles Sanders and Diontae Johnson than they did during the last contest where they scored only 3 and 5 points, respectively. On the Chop's side of the ball, they're returning with Chubb, who scored 27 points in their last meeting, as well as Russell Wilson and Dallas Goedert, who combined to contribute another 29 points. But make no bones about it, Los Perros bulked up at RB this off-season, adding Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott to the mix. It would seem to me that the addition of these weapons is the reason the spread doesn't seem to be in line with the history I just described. There's a reason the Pork Chop Express makes regular stops at the playoffs, 6 of the last 8 seasons if you're counting. They're a good team and they know what they're doing. I'll go with the popular opinion and take Los Perros Locos, but this could easily be the closest game of the week.
COMMISH'S PICK: Los Perros Locos
LINE: NH Bounty Hunters -6
Who is You? You is/are (?) the defending champs and they're getting ready to take on a Bounty Hunters team that is coming off their worst season in history. Who Is You has won two straight at home against the Hunters, and they're 5-3 all-time when hosting them at What Are We field. Who Is You will be bringing back some familiar faces from their last meeting, Mahomes (39 pts) and CeeDee Lamb (11 pts), while adding a little Ekeler and A.J Brown to the mix for good measure. This could spell trouble for the Bounty Hunters who saw Lamar Jackson post just 18 points with Robby Anderson and Mark Andrews struggling to add only 9 more in that game. Bottom line: those three will certainly need to step it up. Additionally, the Hunters will bring in Keenan Allen and Joe Mixon, but their age and inconsistency concern me a bit. I'm just not convinced that will be enough firepower to overcome the younger, more consistent talent on You's side of the ball. I can't explain the spread, but if you're gonna give me points to pick the defending champs, I'll take it every time.
COMMISH'S PICK: Who Is You
LINE: Golden Tate Warriors -8
Over the past 4 seasons, Chief Sticky Balls have won two Sagebrush Cactus League titles and three Sagebrush division titles. In that same time span, the Golden Tate Warriors have come away with a 6th place, 7th place, and two 9th place finishes. Not exactly the kind of hardware you put up on the mantle. You can appreciate why it's difficult to explain how the Balls are the underdog in this matchup. Sure, these two teams split their matchups last season and Tate have Josh Allen, Diggs, and Deebo Samuel returning. But those 3 players only averaged 13 points against the Balls the last time they played. Conversely, the Balls are bringing back Justin Herbert, DK Metcalf, and the Steelers D/ST, who combined for 72 points the last time they played the Golden Tate Warriors. On a side note, Jonathan Taylor and Raheem Mostert both played in this game last season, but they've swapped sidelines this season. In their 10 games as the visiting team, Golden Tate has kept it close, averaging 96.1 pts/game against Sticky Balls' 102.4 pts/game. But, they still lost 6 of those 10 games. Look, you don't just waltz into The Nether Region and beat the Balls around. They're tough and they can hang. But if you hit 'em just right, you can do a lot of damage. And that's exactly what the Warriors are going to do.
COMMISH'S PICK: Golden Tate Warriors
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