SAGEBRUSH CACTUS LEAGUE
LINE: Los Perros Locos -8
Last year, Watts (formerly Chubby Chase) proved their fantasy savvy in winning the Segundo League Championship Game earning them the promotion to the Sagebrush Cactus League. Armed with an entirely new roster of players, the new kids on the block will begin their career in the premier league against one of the original members, the Los Perros Locos, and I can already see some similarities between the two campaigns. The analysts and prognosticators were not kind to Watts after the draft, giving them a "D+", but that's not new territory for them. Last year, they were given an "F" and look what happened. Watts will have their hands full dealing with a revamped Perros passing attack after adding Joe Burrow in the off season. But there's no better counter to a potent offense than a solid running game, which Watts has with a triad of RBs that could produce some nice results. I like Watts to hit their projections this week, but that still leaves them short by a TD in their visit to The Puppy Mill.
COMMISH'S PICK: Los Perros Locos
LINE: Who Is You -13
To open the season, the Warriors will travel to What Are I Field to give us a rematch of the 2021 Championship Game where they defeated You, 112-80, to take the title. Only a few players remain from those rosters and two of them are on the opposite sideline now. Josh Allen remains at the helm for the Warriors while Jaylen Waddle and Harrison Butker have traded jerseys. A quick look at the history between these two teams explains why You is favored. It's been 9 years since the Warriors last won a regular season game against Who Is You - look it up if you don't believe it. There's really no logical reason to think the Warriors will buck that trend this week, but I've been in this league long enough to know that the obvious pick isn't always the right one. Who Is You is a quality team that should have a good season, but something tells me the Warriors will catch them off guard this week.
COMMISH'S PICK: Golden Tate Warriors
LINE: NH Bounty Hunters -12
The best part of the football season for Badazz Bri is usually before it begins. They're full of hope and optimism and, most importantly, they're still sober. It's been 5 years since the last time they put together a winning season and they're a dismal 15-39 since finishing with a 9-4 record in 2018. In week 1 of last season, the Bounty Hunters scored 103 points against Bri and their forecast for this meeting suggests more of the same - 102 points. The good news is that that is a beatable score for most teams. The bad news is that Badazz Bri is probably not one of those teams. Bri has already been busy adjusting their roster after a blackout on draft night left them with a patchwork team that was probably going to be mediocre on their best day. In the end, Bri may be able to put something together this season, but they still have work to do. Take the Hunters by double digits with confidence.
COMMISH'S PICK: NH Bounty Hunters
LINE: Baby Got Dak -7
Our returning champion, Baby Got Dak, will open their journey for a repeat hosting Do Not Panic at the Ain't Had Dak In 6 Years Dome. Though Dak is not a team that is known for doing extremely well in the early half of the season, they do have an 11-7 all-time record in season openers. If they're going to improve on that record, they'll need to find a way to deal with a Panic team whose strength lies in their ability to run the ball. Though Dak may be able to deal with Mattison, Chubb, and Sanders, I think that leaves them vulnerable to Deshaun Watson. To be sure, I don't expect amazing things from Watson this season but a week 1 matchup against Cincinnati could see him airing it out while playing from behind. And all those garbage time points could be enough to lift Do Not Panic over a Dak team that I don't see scoring more than 100 points this week.
COMMISH'S PICK: Do Not Panic
LINE: Thundabuddies -10
The Kings and the Buddies both finished just one win away from the Promised Land last year with each losing in their Divisional Championship games. Looking back, it's strange that they finished in such similar fashion given their very different beginnings. The Buddies were hot out of the gate, winning 6 of their first 7 games while the Kings began the season 1-4 through their first 5. And as I consider this contest, I can see where history may repeat itself. The Consolation Kings have several talented players with high ceilings which could see them tally some impressive weekly scores this season. However, against a Thundabuddies team with more consistent scorers, they could struggle. On the bright side, the Kings usually play well at Flash Gordon Field where they own a 4-2 all-time record and score an average of 105.0 pts/gm to the Buddies' 104.83 pts/gm. If the past is any indication, the spread on this game is way off. It'll be a close contest, but I'm taking the home team.
COMMISH'S PICK: Thundabuddies
LINE: Pork Chop Express -10
A year ago, these two opened up the season against each other in what would be the highest scoring game of week 1. Jergoff Passout squeezed the Chops in that contest to the tune of 153-142, and gifted them their first loss in a season opener in 5 years. As you might guess, the Chops are looking to get their revenge and begin a new season-opener win streak. There's no doubt Mahomes and Kelce are ready to put points on the board for the Pork Chop Express, but there are some question marks at the RB position. Cam Akers is back and hopeful his season begins better than last and Breece Hall is coming off a significant injury that cut short his great season last year. And just as the running game will be key for the Chops, Passout will look to control the clock with their RBs to minimize the Pork Chops scoring opportunities. But if the Chops' defense focuses too heavily on stopping the rush, they could find the dynamic duo of Jefferson and Hill running loose on them. I expect another close game with less scoring than last year's match but, ultimately, I think Mahomes works some last-minute magic and comes away with the win.
COMMISH'S PICK: Pork Chop Express
SCL SEGUNDO LEAGUE
LINE: Ohio State Gunkeyes -12
There's one every week: a contest that appears so lopsided you don't even have to give it any thought when filling out your card. This is that game in week 1. A simple glance at their rosters reveals the Gunkeyes have the better player at each position and I fully expect them to deliver when they host the Runningbacks at Conjunctivitis Coliseum this week. Do I think the Runningbacks have a better team than last season? Sure. Do I think they'll finish better than 4-10 this season? Probably. Do I think they can score the 115+ points they'll need to defeat the Gunkeyes this week? Not a chance. Look for a finish similar to last season's week 8 meeting where the Gunkeyes won by 36 points.
COMMISH'S PICK: Ohio State Gunkeyes
LINE: Belichicks Hoodie -2
Last year, TJONES35 WAS ONLY 11 POINTS AWAY FROM AN APPEARANCE IN THE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME. *realizes the caps lock is still on* - Sorry about that. After an off-season of reflecting on the fact that it was their D/ST that cost them that opportunity, they took that insight into the draft and came out with a significantly better option this year. But fixing their D/ST issue alone won't be enough to handle Belichicks Hoodie on the road. If TJONES35 is going to avoid a repeat of their week 2 loss to Hoodie last season, their offense will need to produce a total near last season's average of 120.6 pts/gm. If they're successful, I can see them coming away with a victory against a Hoodies squad that I expect will score somewhere around 110-115 points.
COMMISH'S PICK: TJONES35
LINE: Ridley's Parlays -5
I thought that I'd seen it all when the Consolation Kings paid $16 to draft the Bills D/ST in the Sagebrush Cactus League last season. That is, of course, until MaxxCasualties said "hold my beer" as they kept a D/ST and a K - a kicker! - for a total of $13. The only problem with this tactic, other than the fact that it runs contrary to every draft strategy that has ever been written about, is that it can leave you with holes at other positions as evidenced by Casualties' roster. Sure, they have some talented players at key positions, but they'll be asking their stars to outperform expectations to makeup for more questionable players that may not deliver on a consistent basis. Hard as I've tried, I just can't see the Casualties coming out on top against the Parlays.
COMMISH'S PICK: Ridley's Parlays
LINE: Shiva Kaminis -2
A serious error on behalf of the Kaminis coaching staff cost them the a win against Burrowito Bowl - formerly BattleBornKid - in week 8 of last season. In that contest, they outscored the Bowls 141-101 but were required to forfeit after they were found to be missing a D/ST. I gotta believe we won't see a repeat of that faux pas when the Bowls come visiting Somakandarkram Stadium this week. For the Bowls, that fortunate turn of events was just what they needed as they went on to win 7 straight earning themselves a trip to the postseason. If the Bowls are to avoid another 2-4 start to their season, they'll need to figure out how to counter some of explosive talent on the Kaminis...namely Watson, Robinson, and Andrews. If Herbert can work through the noise of the Kaminis crowd chanting to the tune of Hava Nagila, and get the ball into the hands of play makers like Jacobs, Mixon, and Samuel, I think they'll find themselves on the winning side without the help of the officials.
COMMISH'S PICK: Burrowito Bowl
LINE: Get In D Carr -7
Whether you realize it or not, this game is actually a rematch of last season's Segundo Championship Game. Both teams are now under new ownership, hence the name changes. It's clear, after spending over 80% of their season budget on WRs, that the Gotham Rogues believe the passing game will be their recipe for success. I don't necessarily disagree but I think it really depends on what their supporting cast can offer. On the other side of the field, Get In D Carr takes on a more balanced approach with a top QB, good RBs, serviceable WRs, and the best TE in the game. I have little doubt the Carrs will score over 130 points this week which begs the question: can the Gotham Rogues' unorthodox strategy yield that many points? Your guess is as good as mine but, until I see it, I'm calling an Uber.
COMMISH'S PICK: Get In D Carr
LINE: Jalenhouse Rock -5
Don't let their pre-season Power Ranking fool you; the Tator Tots had a successful draft and their ready to prove they are a formidable foe when they make their way to The Heartbreak Hotel to avenge their tough loss to Jalenhouse last season. When these two met in week 9 last year, expectations of a high-scoring affair were replaced with a 82-67 snoozefest. In fact, they were the two lowest scoring teams of week 9 last season. That's not going to happen in this meeting. I like both of these rosters to exceed their projections with each scoring over 120 points this week. The QB play for each should be exciting and produce some nice results with the D/STs matchups ultimately being the difference maker. In the end, I think the Tots come away disappointed again but with the realization that they're in for a good season despite drawing a very tough week 1 opponent.
COMMISH'S PICK: Jalenhouse Rock
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