LINE: Los Perros Locos -2
We're scraping the bottom of the barrel, folks. You'd be hard pressed to find a less interesting matchup than this one. If you're watching this game, it's likely because the SCL networks blacked out the other ones. Neither team has done much to impress lately. The Perros have lost two straight and they're averaging only 81.3 pts/gm over their last three. Christian McMingle is only slightly better, averaging 83.0 pts/gm over their last three games, but they've lost them all. Failing to exploit home-field advantage, McMingle is only 1-3 while allowing 130.3 pts/gm at eHarmony field this season. But, the good news is that they're playing host to a Perros team that is 0-2 all-time when visiting McMingle and average just 96 pts/gm on the road this season. Rather than deciding which team will win, I think this game is a situation where you're better off trying to figure out which one won't lose. And with 99 losses in their team history, the Perros will be looking to avoid loss number 100.
COMMISH'S PICK: Los Perros Locos
LINE: Even
Both teams in this contest are coming off their worst week of the season. Who Is You tallied 75 points while Do Not Panic scored only 57. Clearly, both will be looking for a better performance this week. For Who Is You, the first problem to address is the play from Patrick Mahomes. Over the past three weeks, Mahomes has been out-of-character, averaging only 11.6 pts/gm, causing You to question replacing him with Carson Wentz who's averaged 25.3 pts/gm over that span. The problems for Panic are a bit deeper, though. First, they'll need to figure out how to replace Chris Godwin as well as find a backfield solution that's dependable. Dealing with consistently low production and injuries to their RBs this season, Panic has struggled to find the right mix week-to-week. On paper, Who Is You probably has the better team though both are 2-3 in their last 5. And while it's tough to be optimistic about a Panic team that is 1-3 in inter-league play this season, it should be noted that You is far from the best traveling team in the league. With an all-time record of 36-42 away from How Are Me stadium, You will be looking to take advantage of Do Not Panic's porous defense that has allowed 122 pts/gm at home this season. It's easy to assume that You will win. They've outscored Panic in six of nine weeks this season. But, I like to live life on the edge. Stay calm and take Panic for the win.
COMMISH'S PICK: Do Not Panic
LINE: Golden Tate Warriors -11
For all of the success that the Golden Tate Warriors have realized this season, there's one area where they've struggled: inter-league play. In divisional play, the Warriors are 5-0 and average 123.8 pts/gm. But against the Cactus division, their record is 1-3 and their average score drops more than 30 points, to 93.5 pts/gm. And last week's 66-point outing was a season-low, earning them a second straight inter-league loss. Those are not positive indicators when you're about to host a Bounty Hunters team that is coming off a 141-point week 9 performance. So, you can see where I struggle with the fact that the Warriors are double-digit favorites. Yes, I realize that the Bounty Hunters are 3-6 and they're heading into this contest without their feature RB, Joe Mixon. But Golden Tate will be without one of the top WRs in the league, Ja'Marr Chase, so it's not as if they're playing with a full deck either. But, we already knew that. When you start to peel this onion back further, you'll discover that the home games for the Warriors have been incredibly close; they won by three points in week 7 and lost by two in week 9. Plus, despite their 6-3 record, the Warriors actually average less per game than the Hunters do: 110.3 pts/gm to 115.8 pts/gm. Put me down for the Hunters to not only cover, but win outright.
COMMISH'S PICK: NH Bounty Hunters
LINE: Thundabuddies -16
I admit it: the shame is on me. Badazz Bri fooled me twice with incredible upsets in their last two games. Here's a mind-boggling statistic you probably didn't know: Bri loses whenever their opponent is favored by 25 or less, but they win when they're a 28-point, or worse, underdog. It's true. Here are Badazz Bri's lines in the games they've lost: +9, -1, +25, +10, +25, and +21. And, in games they've won, the spreads were +28, +36, and +31. They only win when they're, at least, a four TD underdog. Inexplicable. But this week's opponent is no slouch. The Thundabuddies have the best offense in the league with 119.2 pts/gm and they're focused on bouncing back from their worst performance of the season last week; 96 points. And what better place to do that than Drink 'Em If You Got 'Em stadium where the Buddies are 4-2 with a scoring average of 132.5 pts/gm? To make matters worse for Bri, it's uncertain whether or not Aaron Rodgers will be available. If Rodgers doesn't play, I'm not so sure Love has what it takes to beat a team that has bested them in 8 of 9 weeks this season. Oh, and the spread is less than 25 points.
COMMISH'S PICK: Thundabuddies
LINE: Jergoff Passout -6
When it comes to inter-league play, everyone should be studying Dak's recipe for success. This season, they're 4-0 which is impressive in itself, but even more incredible when you look back at their 0-6 inter-league record last season. But, Jergoff Passout is no pushover either with their 3-1 inter-league record. When you consider that both teams have won two of their last three, this contest appears to be a tossup. That is, until you look a little deeper. In their last three meetings, Passout has averaged 111 pts/gm while Dak appears to be the beneficiary of a light schedule with their 79.7 pts/gm average during that span. And that becomes even more evident when you recall that Baby Got Dak won last week despite scoring a season-low of only 68 points. Having scored less than 100 points in their last 3 games, Dak will need to figure out how to push their offensive production up around the 110 to 115 mark if they're going to give themselves a chance at victory. Still, with Kyler Murray possibly returning to throw to a trio of top-15 WRs for Jergoff Passout, even that level of scoring may not be enough for Dak to win. Passout is the safe bet in this matchup.
COMMISH'S PICK: Jergoff Passout
LINE: Chief Sticky Balls -9
In a rematch of the 2019 Championship Game, the Balls will invite Pork Chop down into the Nether Region. This should be interesting. The Chops have been red hot lately, winning five in a row while boasting a 126.2 pts/gm average in that span. And while the Chops are excited to see Russell Wilson suit up for the first time since week 5, they'll be hampered by the absence of Chubb and Hunt. On the opposite side of the field, the Balls are eager to find out if shooting their wad on Chris Godwin will pay off or not. But, the answer may not come for another week or so with Godwin designated as "Questionable" to play. If Godwin isn't a go, Chief Sticky Balls will need everyone else to step up production. Although they're likely to see Chris Carson return to play, they'll be without David Montgomery because of the bye. So, where do we need to look to pick a winner? Well, first of all, I'd point out that Pork Chop Express is 4-0 away from Little China this year while scoring 123.8 pts/gm and allowing only 76.8 pts/gm in those contests. Secondly, I'd highlight the fact that the Chops are 5-0 all-time at the Nether Region, beating the Balls by an average of 29.8 pts/gm. Third, you need to know that Pork Chop Express have the top defense in the league, holding opponents to 91.9 pts/gm. But the Chops are about to hit a wall themselves when they face a Balls defense that, for as soft as they are on the road, only allow 85 pts/gm on their field. I'll take Pork Chop to beat the Balls in a well-fought, low-scoring battle.
COMMISH'S PICK: Pork Chop Express
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