SAGEBRUSH CACTUS LEAGUE
LINE: Thundabuddies -11
Baby Got Dak has won three straight while averaging 126.7 pts/gm and they'll need to maintain that level of offense if they have any hope of stealing one away from Thundabuddies. History is not on their side, though. In three games at Flash Gordon Field, Dak has only averaged 84.7 pts/gm and that certainly won't get the job done. With WRs like Diggs and Kupp leading the way, I expect the Thundabuddies should have no problem putting up more than 120 points in this contest. Coincidentally, that's a level of scoring that Dak has only reached twice this season...both in the last two weeks. Dak has been playing well lately and there's a good chance they cover. But the Thundabuddies are 4-0 at home this season and I don't see that record being tarnished this week.
COMMISH'S PICK: Thundabuddies
LINE: Golden Tate Warriors -11
I'm not sure I've ever seen Chief Sticky Balls struggle this bad, for this long. Losers of five straight and averaging just 74.6 pts/gm over that span, the Balls are desperately clinging to playoff hopes that are spiraling downward. And now they'll host the second-highest scoring team in the league, the Golden Tate Warriors, down to the Nether Region in what most would argue is a "must-win" game. With a healthy roster of players to work with, I expect the Balls will put up some decent offensive numbers this week. But with newly acquired Davante Adams available for Allen to throw to, I can't see Warriors scoring less than 120 points - a total the Balls haven't reached since week 1. Look for the Warriors to win and keep pressure on the division leader, Jergoff Passout.
COMMISH'S PICK: Golden Tate Warriors
LINE: Pork Chop Express -27
Los Perros Locos are the only team in the league with a winning record while being outscored by their opponents. Overall, the Perros have scored 144 fewer points than their opponents and they're 5-4. The Chops, on the other hand, are 3-6 and have only been outscored by their opponents by 13 points. Scheduling matters, folks. If the Perros are going to extend their winning streak to five games, they'll need to figure out a way to contain the Mahomes/Kelce stack as well as Jaylen Waddle and AJ Brown. With those four players projected to score almost 75 points this week, it's easy to see why the Chops are favored. However, if the Perros defense can get creative and limit them to 65 points or less, they may just have a chance. It's not the logical choice, but I'm willing to play with fire and take the Perros for the upset.
COMMISH'S PICK: Los Perros Locos
LINE: Jergoff Passout -22
Jergoff Passout has lost two straight games after starting the season 6-1 and if you think they're about to lose a third, you're crazy. Even without Joe Burrow in their lineup, the sports books seem to agree, listing them as a three TD favorite. They are the #1 scoring team in the league, averaging 28.1 pts/gm more than Do Not Panic this season, and I expect their star players to carry them to an easy victory.
COMMISH'S PICK: Jergoff Passout
LINE: Who Is You -29
No Lamar Jackson + no Joe Mixon + no Rhamondre Stevenson + no Patriots D/ST = no chance. When your top talent is all on bye and you look over the line of scrimmage to find Hurts, Walker, Samuel and Sanders, you're in big trouble. And it couldn't come at a worse time for the Hunters. Last week, the Hunters topped the league with 153 points to finally bring their losing streak to an end at three games. Fortunately, for the Hunters, they're hosting this contest at Slave One Stadium where their defense has been outstanding, holding opponents to just 88.3 pts/gm. But, honestly, do you really think it's going to take much more than that for You to come away with a victory in their first game on the road against the Hunters?
COMMISH'S PICK: Who Is You
LINE: Consolation Kings -5
No visiting team in league history averages more points than the Kings do when they travel to Drink 'Em If You Got 'Em Stadium. In five games at Bri's house, the Kings average 152.4 pts/gm. Average. In their last two visits, they scored 205 and 160. But this game is being played at Subpar Stadium where the Kings are 1-5, all-time, against Badazz Bri and average only 97.8 pts/gm. The Kings are hopeful that newly acquired Justin Fields can provide the offensive spark they've been looking for but, with Higgins out on bye, what they really need is for James Conner to finally step up and provide the production they expected when they drafted him. The Kings certainly have the potential to put up some solid numbers this week, but whenever you invite a bunch of drunken degenerates with nothing to lose into your home, chaos ensues.
COMMISH'S PICK: Badazz Bri
SCL SEGUNDO LEAGUE
LINE: Tallaassee Tator Tots -4
The Tator Tots turned in their worst performance of the season last week, scoring only 67 points and falling to a Jalenhouse Rock team that scored only 82. Bringing in a new K and D/ST for this week, the Tots will hope to bounce back against Najee Germany who hasn’t scored more than 100 points in any of the last four weeks. Having lost their last three games, Germany is hoping Tom Brady can find his rhythm and prevent them from falling even deeper in the standings. It makes sense that the Tots are a slight favorite at Ketchup Coliseum where they’re 3-1 this season. And while Najee Germany has been terrible on the road this season – where they’re 1-5 and average only 98.2 pts/gm – something tells me they’ll unleash the blitzkrieg and surprise us all.
COMMISH'S PICK: Najee Germany
LINE: Keenan and Kel-ce -2
If you only looked at their recent win/loss records, these two teams appear even. They’ve each won two of their last three and four of their last seven. However, if you dug a little deeper, you’d find Chubby Chase has outscored Kel-ce by at least than 20.6 pts/gm, on average, over those same periods. In four games at the Aww, Here It Goes Dome, Kel-ce is 2-2 and they’ve outscored their opponents by a total of just 4 points. Outscoring their opponents on the road by 35 pts/gm this season, it’s tough not to see the venue as more advantageous for Chase. And, as luck would have it, their QBs, Goff and Fields, will be playing against each other on the same field this weekend. If you can predict which one of those two will have the better game, you’ll find your winner in this contest. Look for Goff and the Lions to get it done.
COMMISH'S PICK: Keenan and Kel-ce
LINE: TJONES35 -13
Here are some numbers you should know: 146, 130.5, and 124. The first number is the highest score TJONES has tallied in a single game this season. The second is their average score when playing on the road. And the third number is their average score per game. Here’s another number to note: 113 – as in, 113 points is the most My Chubb’s Hardman has scored in any game this season. Do you see where I’m going with this? Through nine weeks of play, Hardman has outscored TJONES35 only once…in week 4 when TJONES scored just 64 points. If you want to get cute and throw away your money, be my guest, take Hardman. But if you want a solid pick to parlay, take TJONES35.
COMMISH'S PICK: TJONES35
LINE: Ohio State Gunkeyes -6
Just a few weeks ago, I mentioned that I believed the Gunkeyes were one of the more underrated teams in Segundo. Since then, they’ve lost two of three games. Perhaps I need to be more careful with my words. Regardless, they’re favored in this contest against a Cleveland! team that has also lost two of their last three and has seen their average score drop from 121.2 pts/gm to 104 pts/gm in that span. With Josh Allen banged up, I’m a little surprised the Gunkeyes are projected to score 118. Considering that is their average game score when Allen is at 100%, I imagine they’ll fall short…somewhere in the 105 to 110 range. And since Cleveland! has scored more than 110 points in six of nine weeks this season, I think they’re on to victory.
COMMISH'S PICK: We're on to Cleveland!
LINE: BattleBornKid -6
Sitting two games behind the division lead, and tied for third place, BattleBornKid has a great opportunity in this contest. If they win, they’ll be within one game of a coveted first-round bye in the playoffs. But if they lose, they may just fall into a hole that will be tough to climb out of. Heading into this game, BattleBornKid has won three straight and they’re averaging 117.7 pts/gm which seems impressive until you see Slim Brady has averaged 140 pts/gm over their last three. Even more daunting for Kid is the fact that Slim Brady is undefeated at 8 Mile Stadium this season and they’re crushing opponents by an average of 22 pts/gm. But before you take Slim Brady, you should know that they’ll be without two of their best players this week: Burrow and Mixon. With Burrow out, Slim Brady will rely on Russell Wilson to helm their prolific offense…and we all know how well Wilson has done managing offenses this season. Led by Tyreek Hill and Deebo Samuel this week, look for BattleBornKid to make the big plays and pull off the upset.
COMMISH'S PICK: BattleBornKid
LINE: Shiva Kaminis -7
Over the past two weeks, Shiva Kaminis has scored 141 and 126 points and they have two losses to show for it. Moreover, they’re on a 4-game losing streak despite being the fourth highest scoring team in the league over that span. Something’s gotta give, right? With only two wins to their name, they’ll host a Jalenhouse Rock team that is much like the NY Jets; they ain’t pretty, but they find a way to win. Case in point: Rock scored only 82 points last week and still outscored their opponent by 15 points. In order to defeat Rock this week, Shiva must first submit a complete lineup…hint, hint. Secondly, they’ll lean heavily on their stars, Henry and Kupp, to carry their offense. And, finally, they’ll need to find a way to contain Jalen Hurts and keep him around 25 points or less. With their back against the wall and facing potential playoff elimination with another loss, I’m willing to bet they finally find their way to victory.
COMMISH'S PICK: Shiva Kaminis
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