LINE: Blue Ribbon -19
In 4 attempts, the NH Bounty Hunters have never beaten Blue Ribbon, and it's easy to understand why. In those 4 games, the Hunters have averaged only 84.5 pts/gm while Blue Ribbon has averaged over 135 pts/gm. But I wouldn't count on Blue Ribbon hitting their average in this game. Keeping their opponent in check has been key for Bounty Hunters this season. The Bounty Hunters are 1 of 3 teams in the league that hasn't allowed over 1000 points yet this season, holding their opponent to an average of only 95.8 pts/gm. And they'll need to hold Blue Ribbon down this week as scoring may come at a premium. Chris Carson is out on bye and they won't be able to lean David Johnson who was benched last week and faces a tough 49ers defense this week. The good news is that Blue Ribbon will take the field without their star QB, Russell Wilson, and they've had trouble at home, where they're 1-3. With the playoffs just around the corner, I'd like to think they'll both put forth a solid effort, but something tells me this could get out of hand early.
COMMISH'S PICK: Blue Ribbon
LINE: Flash Dem TD's -42
You'd be hard pressed to make the argument that this will be a close game. You might point to the fact that Flash Dem TD's have lost 3 of their last 4 games, but I would counter by highlighting the Thundabuddies' 1-4 record against Sagebrush teams this season. You could focus on last week where Thundabuddies scored 160 points, and I would remind you that they played Badazz Bri - teams normally score 200 against them. Additionally, I would draw your attention to Thundabuddies' roster this week where they're without Henry, Lockett, and Aaron Jones...and...the rest of their lineup reads like a nurse's clipboard from the ICU. At this point, you're struggling and this is where I begin to pile it on. Flash Dem TD's has some of the most favorable player matchups this week and they're coming off their worst week of the season, so I know they're hungry. And lastly, the pièce de résistance: Flash Dem TD's has averaged 126.3 pts/gm in their previous matchups against Thundabuddies. The Thundabuddies? They average 99.3 pts/gm against TD's. Don't get cute - take TD's.
COMMISH'S PICK: Flash Dem TD's
LINE: Chief Sticky Balls -18
If there is anywhere that Dak enjoys playing more than their own house, it has to be at Chief Sticky Balls. In 5 visits, Baby Got Dak is undefeated at Sticky Balls Stadium, and though they have yet to lose there, these games are not blowouts. When playing at Sticky Balls, Dak averages 98 pts/gm compared to the Balls' 89.2 pts/gm. These are usually low-scoring, close games and a cursory look at each of their starting lineups suggests this week should be no different. Baby Got Dak has a number of difficult player matchups and, thanks to the New York Giants bye week, nearly half of Sticky Balls roster will be unavailable for this game. Frankly, I'd be surprised if either team scores more than 90 points this week. The line on this game suggest the good folks over at ESPN are off their meds again. I'll gladly take Dak and the points.
COMMISH'S PICK: Baby Got Dak
LINE: Los Perros Locos -36
Top 10 things you need to know about this matchup:
Over the past 3 weeks, Los Perros Locos has averaged 151.3 pts/gm.
The average score against Badazz Bri this season is 138.9 points.
Badazz Bri has given up 200 or more points twice this year.
Los Perros Locos has not allowed 200 or more points this year.
Badazz Bri is 2-4 at home against Los Perros Locos with an average of 88.5 pts/gm.
Los Perros Locos is 4-1 in inter-league play with an average of 124.8 pts/gm.
Badazz Bri has several strange characters in their name and appears to confuse the letter Z with the letter S.
Los Perros Locos has no strange characters in their name and no misspellings.
Badazz Bri has a .037% chance of winning this game.
Los Perros Locos has a 149.963% chance of winning this game.
COMMISH'S PICK: Los Perros Locos
LINE: Pork Chop Express -37
Just a few weeks ago, I had this matchup penciled in as a potential preview of the SCL Championship Game. Things have changed. Both of these teams are headed in the wrong direction and the bad news is that it's about to get worse for one of them. Hit Em With The Hein!!! has lost 3 straight while the Pork Chop's have lost 3 of their last 4. And while you probably noticed Pork Chop's 89 and 90 points in their last 2 games, each of those are still better than anything Hein!!! has done in their last 4 games. Times are tough for these two, but someone's gotta win. So, who will it be? If you take a deeper look at their lineups, you might find some clues. Pork Chop Express's starting lineup features 7 players ranked in the top-15 at their position with 4 of those players looking at very favorable matchups. Not included in that count: Drew Brees, ranked 34th among QB's. Hein!!! has 2 starters ranked in the top-15 at their position...and one of those is their kicker. There's a reason the point-spread in this matchup is one of the largest of the week.
COMMISH'S PICK: Pork Chop Express
LINE: Team RamRod -4
With Mahomes back in their lineup, Who Is You bounced back from their [insert synonym for "terrible"] week 9 and upset Blue Ribbon last week to retake 1st place in the Cactus division. This week, they'll take to the road against a RamRod team that has been one of the hottest in the league lately. Since losing their first 4 games, RamRod has won 5 of their last 6 and their average score over the past 3 weeks is 118 pts/gm - a total that You hasn't reached since week 4. Moreover, at 4-1 in inter-league play, RamRod has had their way with Cactus teams this year. It's worth noting, however, that 4 of those games were on the road for RamRod where they've been much more comfortable. But this matchup is a home game for RamRod, where they're only 1-3 this year. To make matters worse, Who Is You has seen success when they're the visiting team. With You's 3-1 away record, RamRod will need to build up a healthy lead early in this matchup and cross their fingers. Mahomes plays on Monday night so RamRod will need every point they can get in case he has another one of his signature performances. If RamRod isn't able to come out of Sunday with a lead of 30 or more, I'm not sure they'll be able to hold on.
COMMISH'S PICK: Who Is You
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