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Writer's pictureCommish

Week 12 Commish's Picks


I'm not sure this contest will set any ratings records with both teams already eliminated from the playoffs. They're essentially playing for pride at this point. The last 5 weeks have not been kind to Baby Got Dak having lost 5 in a row. And playing at home hasn't been much better with their 1-4 record. But the lone bright spot for Dak is that their playing a Hunters team that has yet to win against a division opponent this season. Plus, exactly half of Dak's wins this season have come against the Bounty Hunters. OK, so they've only won 2 games, but still. I can't imagine we'll see any scoring records broken in this game, but I think the Bounty Hunters are a better team than their record indicates. They got off to a terrible start this season, but have won 3 of 5 since and they're coming off their best week yet, 129 pts. I'll take the Bounty Hunters to cover.

LINE: NH Bounty Hunters -11

COMMISH'S PICK: NH Bounty Hunters


This is a must-win game for Flash Dem TD's if they're to hang on to their playoff hopes. Never mind that a Golden Tate Warriors victory would also eliminate them - that's out of their control. Keeping their dreams alive will be an uphill task for several reasons. For starters, the TD's are the lowest scoring team in the league and they're coming off a terrible week where they scored only 54 points. Sadly, that is the 3rd time this season that they dipped below the 55-point threshold but, on the bright side, in the other two instances, they scored over 100 points in the following week. Making matters worse, Flash Dem TD's has been terrible against division rivals and even worse when playing at home. Against their Sagebrush counterparts, the TD's own a pitiful 1-4 record. When hosting teams, the TD's are also 1-4 and they're losing, on average, by more than 36 points. Combine all of that with the fact that Blue Ribbon has averaged 130.2 pts/gm over the past 5 weeks, and looking to hang onto a playoff spot, and you have all the makings of a lopsided game.

LINE: Blue Ribbon -19

COMMISH'S PICK: Blue Ribbon


Locked in a battle for the top seed in the Cactus division, Thunda Buddies are hoping to turn things around after a pair of disappointing performances. Through the first 7 weeks of the season, Buddies averaged 139.4 pts/gm. Compare that to their 88.8 pts/gm over the past 4 weeks, and their two lowest scores of the season in the past two, and you have to begin to wonder if this team is running out of gas at the wrong time. The good news is that they're paired up against a Who Is You team that has won only 1 of 5 games against division opponents. Moreover, the last time these two met up at Them Are They stadium, the Thunda Buddies left with a 140 -100 victory. The QB play in this contest should keep things exciting and I expect we'll see a close finish. I like Thunda Buddies to perform better than they have in recent weeks, but Who Is You has more to play for. Take Who Is You by a field goal.

LINE: Thunda Buddies -1

COMMISH'S PICK: Who Is You


Things went pretty well for Christian McMingle during their last visit to the Drink 'Em If You Got 'Em dome. Not only did they beat Bri, they beat them pretty bad with a record-setting 233 points. And earlier this season, in week 3, McMingle tagged them again with a 133-71 victory. If you're keeping score, that's a average score of 183 to 86.5 over their last two meetings. But things haven't always gone well for McMingle. In fact, those two games are the only wins that McMingle has against Bri. Badazz Bri still holds the all-time record in this rivalry at 7-2. If you strip out their 233-point game, McMingle only averages 82.2 pts/gm when visiting Bri. Compare that to Bri's average of 120.7 pts/gm when hosting McMingle and you have to wonder if Badazz Bri can pull off the upset and hang on to their playoff hopes. Pffffft. Yeah, right.

LINE: Christian McMingle -25

COMMISH'S PICK: Christian McMingle


When you're barely hanging on to a shot at the playoffs, the last thing you need is to face Pork Chop Express. The Chops are the highest scoring team in the league this season and they're coming off a big victory where they whacked off the Balls, 160 -126. While we normally see a lot of teams follow up a big week with a dud, that isn't the case for the Chops. In the 3 instances where they scored at least 160 points, they followed up each with at least 142 points in the next game. How's that for a repeat performance? On the road this season, Los Perros Locos have been...well, dogs. With a 1-4 record and an average of only 86.2 pts/gm on the road this season, heading down to Little China is probably just below being neutered on the list of things Los Perros looks forward to. Pork Chop Express is 3-1 at home this season and they're 4-1 against their division. Oh, and did I mention that the last time these two met, in week 3, the Chops put up 165 points - their highest score in team history?

LINE: Pork Chop Express -14

COMMISH'S PICK: Pork Chop Express


There's a lot on the line for both of these teams this week. For Chief Sticky Balls, a win would not only lock them into the playoffs, it might also give them a chance at a #1 seed. For Golden Tate, a win may, or may not, guarantee them a date to the big dance, depending on what happens with Blue Ribbon and Badazz Bri, but it does make it a lot more likely. Recent history gives us a glimpse of two teams headed in different directions. Through the first 4 weeks of the season, Golden Tate didn't post a score lower than 116 points. Since then, they haven't topped 100 points in a game. On the flip side, Chief Sticky Balls has only scored less than 100 points once this season - in week 4. Over the last 5 weeks, Sticky Balls has averaged 125.8 pts/gm to Tate's 84.4 pts/gm. But, there's some data that suggests this game will be closer than you might think. At home, Golden Tate holds a 3-1 all-time record against the Balls and they're holding visiting teams to 97.2 pts/gm this season. However, Sticky Balls are 4-1 against division opponents and 5-0 on the road this season while averaging 130.8 pts/gm. I like the underdog to turn it around this week and get the big win as they take another step toward the postseason.

LINE: Chief Sticky Balls -8

COMMISH'S PICK: Golden Tate Warriors

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