LINE: Golden Tate Warriors -18
Hanging on to their playoff hopes by the slimmest of margins, the Los Perros Locos will hope to upset one of the top teams in the league. It's easy to see why the Golden Tate Warriors are a huge favorite to win. The Perros have been terrible of late, having lost four in a row with an average score of only 77 pts/gm. But it's worth point out that during that same span, Tate has averaged only 88.3 pts/gm. They're beatable. And, the fact that past games between these two rivals typically finish with each team scoring less than 100 points works to Perros' advantage. What is most puzzling to me are the lofty scoring projections for the Tate's players. I'm going to go out on a limb and bet that no player on the Golden Tate Warriors scores more than 19 points and they finish the week below 100 total points. On the other side of the ball, I expect the Perros to break 100 points, even if only by a few, for the first time since week 7. You know what they say about a cornered dog.
COMMISH'S PICK: Los Perros Locos
LINE: Thundabuddies -9
Perhaps they should've panicked a little bit this season. Having been eliminated from playoff contention, Panic fans are hopeful they can put together a few solid games to end the season on a positive note. And a victory against the #1 team in the Power Rankings would be a great way to start. It would be the kind of victory you can build upon. On paper, there is no plausible way that Panic wins this game. The Thundabuddies are the top scoring team in the league, they're playing to lock up a #1 seed in the playoffs, and they're playing at Flash Gordon field. But, the Buddies defense has been vulnerable at home this season, allowing 111.8 pts/gm, and Panic typically scores more on the road. And, I think there are some on the Thundabuddies roster that have over-performed this season. The ESPN projections seem high to me. I don't anticipate either team will score more than 100 points, but if one of them does, it'll be Do Not Panic.
COMMISH'S PICK: Do Not Panic
LINE: Pork Chop Express -18
In seven previous meetings, Bri has defeated Pork Chop Express only once. And in games against the Chops at the Drink 'Em If You Got 'Em dome, Bri averages a woeful 61 pts/gm - barely more than half of what the Chops average in those games, 112.5 pts/gm. But, history isn't our only indicator of what might happen. Through 11 weeks, the Chops have outscored Badazz Bri in all but two, and with an opportunity to win the Survivor championship this week, I don't expect they'll take their foot off the gas pedal now. Plus, Badazz Bri's highest score this season is only 13 points more than the Chops average score. This one is going to get ugly, folks. Start drinking early and hope you don't remember this game when you wake up after the weekend.
COMMISH'S PICK: Pork Chop Express
LINE: NH Bounty Hunters -16
A hope and a prayer is about all that is left for the NH Bounty Hunters if they want to make the playoffs. They'll hope to beat Jergoff Passout this week and pray that Who Is You and Baby Got Dak lose their games. Although Passout is in a far better position, it isn't without a little luck on their side. Between these two, the Hunters are the higher scoring team this season, averaging 114.3 pts/gm to Passout's 108.6 pts/gm. And while Passout has been fortunate to have won in week 10 with only 62 points, the Hunters have a pair of losses in games they scored 126 points or more - a distinction all their own. But the key to this matchup, and the explanation for the spread, can be found when you review the past three weeks. Since week 9, Passout has averaged only 87.3 pts/gm compared to the Hunters' average of 118.7 pts/gm. You'd be wise to take the Hunters and give the points.
COMMISH'S PICK: NH Bounty Hunters
LINE: Chief Sticky Balls -6
If there's one place Who Is You doesn't like to visit, it's the Nether Region. In seven previous visits, they've lost five while averaging only 92.3 pts/gm. But after a loss last week, and with a playoff berth hanging in the balance, they'll need to find a way to get over that hurdle. These two teams match up well. On the season, the Balls have outscored You in 6 of 11 weeks, but Who Is You has a slightly higher season average with 113.4 pts/gm to Balls' 112.0 pts/gm. And last week saw each of these teams feature RBs with huge days: Ekeler and Taylor. On a side note, it'll be interesting to see how either of them follow up their incredible week 11 performances. Mahomes hasn't been very Mahomes-like lately, but I'm not sure Who Is You will be able to roll out a team that is capable of keeping pace with the Balls this week without him. If I had to guess, I'd suggest the Balls will finish the week with 125+ points and I can't see Who Is You scoring much more than 100, if that.
COMMISH'S PICK: Chief Sticky Balls
LINE: Christian McMingle -19
No game this week carries the playoff implications of this matchup. In addition to these two, the postseason dreams of several other teams hinge on the outcome of this contest. Throughout most of the season, I've been impressed at Dak's ability to stay relevant despite their lack of scoring. Through 11 weeks, Baby Got Dak is one of three teams that average less than 100 pts/gm and they haven't scored more than 90 points in any of their last five contests. Since beginning the season 4-0, Dak has lost four of their last six and they're heading into this matchup without their best player, Travis Kelce. On the other side of the ball is a McMingle team that is finally past most of their injury troubles. With McCaffrey and Gronkowski back in their starting lineup they'll now have the firepower they need to try to make a final push towards a playoff berth. If they were playing anyone other than Dak, I might suggest they'd post the high score for the week. But since Dak has held their last four opponents to scores of 75, 66, 62, and 89 points, I'll temper my expectations. McMingle should finish somewhere around the 115-120 point range which should be more than enough for the win.
COMMISH'S PICK: Christian McMingle
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