SAGEBRUSH CACTUS LEAGUE
LINE: Chief Sticky Balls -7
It’s as simple as this, folks: the loser of this game goes home with their playoff dreams shattered. The winner, however, might also be eliminated depending on the other divisional games. But neither team can worry about that. All they can do is win this game and hope for the best. Both teams have had their share of struggles this season, but if you’re looking for a clue as to which team will win, look no further than the past three weeks. During that time, Panic has won one game while averaging only 89 pts/gm. Compare that to the Balls who have won two – nearly three – while averaging 117.7 pts/gm and this game doesn’t begin to look like the contest their season records might suggest it would be. It might be too little, too late, but the Balls have finally found their comfort zone and, even if they’re eliminated from the playoffs this week, they’ll go out with a win.
COMMISH'S PICK: Chief Sticky Balls
LINE: Los Perros Locos -4
Another contest where the winner lives to see another week while the loser can begin making plans to travel with the family during the post-season. In their only previous trip to The Puppy Mill, the Bounty Hunters beat the dogs 110-99. Worse, the Hunters also routed the Perros in their most recent meeting, 110-57, back in week 3. But something tells me this rematch will be different. Back in week 3, the Hunters were riding high and the Perros were in the doghouse. However, since week 6, when the wheels fell off the Bounty Hunters’ bus, the Perros have outscored them in five of seven weeks. Add to that the fact that Los Perros will likely welcome back their top WR while the Hunters may be without their top RB, and you could make a pretty good case for the Perros. Plus, in a do-or-die situation, you know what they say about a cornered dog.
COMMISH'S PICK: Los Perros Locos
LINE: Golden Tate Warriors -28
If there’s a team in the league that is out for vengeance this week, it is the Golden Tate Warriors. For starters, they suffered a terrible loss in the worst possible way last week, falling by a single point to the second lowest scoring team in the league on one of the final plays of the Monday Night game. If you don’t think that is a good motivator to win this week, consider the last time they played Bri, they lost…by a single point…to the lowest scoring team in the league. And if you need another reason to justify a 4-TD spread, you should know the Warriors average 113 pts/gm on the road while Badazz Bri averages only 75.3 pts/gm at home. This game is going to get out of hand quickly and the good fans at Drink ‘Em If You Got ‘Em will likely be too intoxicated to care by halftime.
COMMISH'S PICK: Golden Tate Warriors
LINE: Pork Chop Express -5
You might be fooled into thinking the Thundabuddies have more to play for in this game, but with a playoff berth already guaranteed, and a #1 seed that is all but theirs, the opposite is true: Pork Chop Express stands to lose more. Wait? Aren’t they already out of the playoffs? Yes, they are. However, they’re still alive in the Survivor Challenge and that may be the only opportunity they have at winning some prize money this season. If you’re a fan of league history, I probably don’t need to remind you that the last time the Chops visited the Buddies, in week 6 of 2020, they left Flash Gordon Field bloodied and bruised from a 170-107 drubbing. Could it happen again? Well, the Thundabuddies are coming off a 159-point total last week and they’re the second highest scoring team in the league this year while averaging 133.3 pts/gm over their last three games. The Chops might have a good week, but the Buddies will do their thing.
COMMISH'S PICK: Thundabuddies
LINE: Jergoff Passout -10
If you’re the Consolation Kings and you’re in a fight to make it to the post-season, the last team that you probably want to face is Jergoff Passout. Not only is Passout the highest scoring team in the league, but in two tries, the Kings have never beaten them. They haven’t even come close, losing by an average score of 145-86.5. So, what do they need to do to come away with a win here? The Kings will need to find a way to counter Joe Burrow, who should have a big week. Fortunately, it looks like they have that in Fields who should also put up some impressive numbers. Secondly, they’ll need to turn their attention to shutting down Barkley and Jefferson – two of the top fantasy players this season. Nick Chubb should provide some quality numbers on the ground, but I’m not sure Tee Higgins can match Jefferson. If Higgins comes up a bit short, the Kings will need to rely on one of their highest paid players: the Bills D/ST to provide just enough to put them over the top. This is gonna be a close one, but I like the Kings to pull off the Hail Mary to keep their playoff dreams intact.
COMMISH'S PICK: Consolation Kings
LINE: Who Is You -8
With a guaranteed playoff berth on the line for both teams this week, this game feels like it will be the one you don’t want to miss. Both teams are led by talented, young QBs, Tagovailoa and Hurts, that are surrounded by a quality supporting cast of RBs and WRs - including Walker, Samuel, Henry, Kirk, Sanders, and others - who’ve proven they can get it done, even when their QB can’t. Case in point: in their previous meeting this season, Tagovailoa scored just 11 points for Dak against You’s Hurts who scored 32. However, Derrick Henry and Mark Andrews stepped up, contributing 43 points, leading Dak to victory. And while Who Is You scores about 7 pts/gm more than Dak on the season, recent weeks have seen that increase to about 16 pts/gm. These two are pretty evenly matched and should give all of us spectators a show, but if I’m picking the winner, I’ll take the hot hand. Who’s hand? You’s hand.
COMMISH'S PICK: Who Is You
SCL SEGUNDO LEAGUE
LINE: The Real Slim Brady -13
The Tots got the better of Slim Brady when they hosted them at Ketchup Coliseum earlier this year, 130-109. But with a lot more on the line this time around, the Tots are going to have their hands full heading into 8 Mile Stadium this week. For Slim Brady, a win would guarantee a spot in the playoffs. While a Tots loss wouldn’t necessarily eliminate them from post-season contention, a win would certainly leave them in a much better position. Squaring off in this contest will be two of the best fantasy QBs this season, Burrow and Jackson. In their previous meeting, Jackson exploded for 51 points while Burrow posted 32 for Slim Brady. I can’t imagine Jackson have a day like that again, which leads me to believe that if Burrow can find Diggs and Watson, and if Mixon can get their ground game going, The Real Slim Brady could be looking at a playoff berth.
COMMISH'S PICK: The Real Slim Brady
LINE: Chubby Chase -12
With the #1 seed in the Cholla division still up for grabs, the winner of this game will have a leg up over the rest of the field in locking down that coveted first-round bye. In their last meeting, Jalenhouse Rock eeked out a 7-point victory on the road on the back of a 34-point game from Jalen Hurts. Mariota, who only scored 16 points for Chubby Chase, has since been replaced by the electrifying Justin Fields in hopes that he can lead them to the promised land. There’s no doubt that both Hurts and Fields are capable of top-notch production, so the difference maker will likely be the RBs and WRs for each team and I have to give the advantage to Chase in both categories. Look for Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson to lead the way through the air with Chubb and Etienne controlling the game tempo on the ground.
COMMISH'S PICK: Chubby Chase
LINE: Shiva Kaminis -6
Shiva Kaminis will take another shot at the family matriarch after coming up short, 104-100, back in week 3. And, having already been eliminated from the playoffs, I’m sure Kaminis would take great pleasure in being the one to end Cleveland’s! playoff run this week. Last week, Kaminis earned a second-straight victory scoring a personal best, 136 points, in their win over Chubby Chase. While I’m not sure I see them scoring that much this week, I think somewhere in the 115-point range is achievable. But will that be enough? Over the past three weeks, Cleveland! has averaged only 104 pts/gm which may not sound like much, but it’s a level Kaminis has failed to reach in four of their last seven. I think this game has the potential to be one of the closest this week but, in the end, Shiva Kaminis falls short due to some very tough player matchups. Score another one for mom.
COMMISH'S PICK: We're on to Cleveland!
LINE: Najee Germany -6
I’d rather go pick up dog shit in the backyard than watch this game.
COMMISH'S PICK: My Chubb's Hardman
LINE: Keenan and Kel-ce -10
Up against the wall, the Ohio State Gunkeyes will look to keep their playoff dreams alive when they host a Kel-ce team coming off their best performance of the season, 154 points. In their previous meeting, Jared Goff came far short of matching Josh Allen’s 36-point game giving the Gunkeyes their first win of the season. In this rematch, however, Kel-ce will roll out a weapon they’ve been sitting on for 12 weeks, and one that we’re all curious to see: Deshaun Watson. Personally, I don’t have very high expectations for Watson. He’s been away from the game for quite some time, and this is his first game with a completely new offense. If they’re going to win this week, Kel-ce will rely heavily on their RBs, Barkley, Sanders, and Patterson. And though their solid ground game has carried them throughout this season, my gut tells me they’ll stall out against a Gunkeyes defense that is ready to prove they’re a post-season team.
COMMISH'S PICK: Ohio State Gunkeyes
LINE: BattleBornKid -12
Win or lose, both teams could still punch their ticket to the playoffs, depending on whether the Tots win or not. The winner of this game will automatically reserve their spot in the post-season while the loser will only receive an automatic bid if the Tots lose. If the Tots beat Slim Brady, the loser of this contest will likely need to win next week. In their week 3 meeting, TJONES crushed Kid, 146-81, thanks to their WRs and TE who averaged 18.2 pts. I would be shocked if Kid’s coaching staff hasn’t been reminding their secondary of that stat line all week. I would caution you if you’re thinking TJONES35 holds the advantage at home this week. In five games at ALL CAPS ARENA this season, TJONES is only 2-3 and their defense allows nearly 130 pts/gm. What should worry them more is the fact that BattleBornKid has been stellar on the road, winning five of six games as the visiting team. I should also point out that Kid has won six straight. They should be able to notch #7 this week and turn their focus towards locking down a #1 seed in the Yucca division.
COMMISH'S PICK: BattleBornKid
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