LINE: Christian McMingle -7
No matter how you slice it, both of these teams are going to finish the regular season with a losing record. Other than reaching a higher seed in the Consolation bracket, playing to end on a positive note is about all either has left. At home this season, Do Not Panic is only 1-5 and when you also consider that they're currently on a 5-game losing streak, the prognosis doesn't look good. Add to that the recent news that Mike Williams will be missing, they're left with only one option to fill their starting lineup, assuming they don't add anyone to their roster. On the other side of the ball, the McMingle players have some intriguing matchups that have the potential to add up to a 100-point week. Mark my words: Prescott, Burkhead, and the Chargers D/ST will all outperform projections. When you combine that with the fact that Christian McMingle follows up a sub-85 outing with 115 points, or more, 75% of the time this season, you're left with no choice. Take McMingle and give the points.
COMMISH'S PICK: Christian McMingle
LINE: NH Bounty Hunters -13
If for no other reason than pride, I'm sure both teams would like to end the regular season with a win. In 13 all-time meetings between these two, Pork Chop Express boasts a 10-3 record versus the Hunters. But, inexplicably, the Chops are only 2-2 against the Hunters when they play host down in Little China. And, guess where this game is being played. Here's another interesting piece of data that makes it difficult to pick a clear winner: the Bounty Hunters are the 2nd highest scoring team in the league and the Chops have allowed the fewest points this season. So, which one wins: the unstoppable force or the immovable object? A brief look at their lineups may offer some clues. First, with so many players traveling this week, I don't see the Bounty Hunters reaching the 112-point mark that ESPN projects for them. My guess is they finish somewhere around 100. Secondly, like the Hunters, I think some of the projections for the Chops are a bit wishful. I'll give you that Taysom Hill scored 29 points last week, but I was not impressed by what I saw. Fortunately, for him, he draws another suspect defense this week. But, the rest of the lineup will be facing defenses that are pretty well suited against their respective roles. The bottom-line is that I think the Chops will keep it close in a game where both teams score below 100 points but they'll fall short by 7 or less.
COMMISH'S PICK: NH Bounty Hunters
LINE: Chief Sticky Balls -32
Try if you want, but there's just no way to justify taking Badazz Bri in this contest. The Balls have won five straight while scoring more than 150 points in two of their last three games and they're playing for a shot at the #1 seed in the Sagebrush division. Also, if you've been paying attention lately, I probably don't need to remind you that the Balls have averaged 123.6 pts/gm over the last five weeks. To put that into context regarding this matchup, Badazz Bri hasn't scored more than 122 points in a game this season. To make matters worse for Bri, they're heading into this game with a hobbled crew. They have injuries up and down their roster and, hell...they don't even have a tight end at the moment. Diane, grab your helmet, I need you to play this week. Look, folks, there's no doubt who will win the game but if you're playing the line, I'd give the points. It's gonna be ugly.
COMMISH'S PICK: Chief Sticky Balls
LINE: Los Perros Locos -2
Twenty-eight times these two teams have faced each other - more than any other rivalry in the SCL. With the all-time series tied at 14 games a piece, their 29th meeting carries with it the opportunity for Baby Got Dak to punch their playoff ticket. Last week, the Perros were able to end the Hunters postseason dreams. Can they play spoiler again? If history is any indication, the answer is probably "no". In 15 games at Sans Prescott stadium, the Perros have a .333 winning percentage, one of their worst against any team, anywhere. But this time, they have nothing to lose and everything to gain. And, they're heading into town on the heels of a 133-point showing last week. Have the Perros finally figured out the recipe for scoring, even if it's a day late and a dollar short? Maybe, but I'm not sure I'd bet on it. Why? Because each time the Perros have scored 130+ points this season, they've followed it up with less than 100 points in the next week. For Dak's part, their offensive struggles continue and, with only 89 points in week 13, it's a bit of a wonder they still control their playoff destiny. But, it's the last week before the playoffs and this is where we separate the "contenders" from the "pretenders". Don't get me wrong, I'm impressed with what Dak has accomplished this season given what they've got to work with. But I've said it before, and I'll say it again: I just don't think they're a playoff team. Then again, they still may get into the postseason if...
COMMISH'S PICK: Los Perros Locos
LINE: Thundabuddies -2
If Who Is You loses this game, Dak will automatically be awarded the 3rd, and final, playoff spot in the Cactus division. For You to make it to the playoffs, they need to win and hope that Perros can knock off Dak. It's a long shot, but I've seen crazier things happen in this league. Right off the bat, things don't look great for You. They're hosting a Thundabuddies team that has won four straight and possess a 5-1 record on the road this season. Combine that with the fact that the Buddies are the highest scoring team in the league (120.77 pts/gm) with a season-low of 96 points and the task looks even more daunting for Who Is You. But, they can do it. They've outscored the Buddies in 5 of 13 weeks this season, although, they haven't done so since week 8. Comparatively speaking, the starting lineups for each team don't look near as even as the spread might suggest. Though I think the Thundabuddies have the better WRs, I have to lean towards Who Is You at every other position. I can easily see You scoring over 120 points this week but I'm not sure I can say the same for Thundabuddies.
COMMISH'S PICK: Who Is You
LINE: Golden Tate Warriors -3
Both teams bucked a 4-game trend last week whether they wanted to or not. For Jergoff Passout, last week's 172-point outing was their first game over 100 points in four weeks and it put them in a tie with NH Bounty Hunters for the highest score of the season. On the other side of the ball, the Golden Tate Warriors' 84-point game was their first under 100 in that same 4-week window. And yet, despite a poor offensive showing, the Warriors came away with the victory to extend their winning streak to four games. With Alvin Kamara and Kyler Murray back from injury, Passout is sitting in a much better position than they were just a few weeks ago. The big question is whether or not they'll be able to get more than one game out of their investment in Mattison due to Dalvin Cook's unexpectedly quick return from injury. But, the Warriors have some question marks of their own, namely in their receiving corps. With Deebo Samuel and Davante Adams listed as "game-time" decisions, this is a bad week for Jaylen Waddle to take off. My gut tells me that if they both play, the Warriors will score 120+. But, if either one of them doesn't suit up, the Warriors could struggle to find enough points elsewhere on their bench to match what I think will be a good game for Passout. This game should be close and it really does look like a toss-up. Plus, it's tough to pick against a Warriors team that is 7-0 against their division and 5-1 at home this season. But, I'm willing to take the risk.
COMMISH'S PICK: Jergoff Passout
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