SAGEBRUSH CACTUS LEAGUE
LINE: Who Is You -25
Badazz Bri will be without six players this week because of the bye. Clearly, they planned for this week. For all intents and purposes, Who Is You has nothing to play for in this game. Even if they were to lay a doughnut and lose this week, their chances of making the playoffs are still about 99.98% and they would need to break every league scoring record to have any real shot at claiming a #1 seed. For the season, Who Is You is averaging 113.9 pts/gm…a total Badazz Bri has reached only once. Yes, once. I imagine we’ll see You take it easy on Bri once they get out to a lead and pull their starters for the remainder of the contest to avoid injury. This analysis is 147 words long, which is about 143 more than needed to tell you to pick Who Is You.
COMMISH'S PICK: Who Is You
LINE: Jergoff Passout -6
In their only previous meeting, Jergoff Passout defeated Los Perros by 21 points, 107-86. I’m confident that Passout will score more than that this time around based on the fact they average 119.7 pts/gm this season and they’ve scored below 107 only three times. They are the highest scoring team in the league, and they look like a team on a mission. The question is whether the Perros can keep up. Over six games at the Puppy Mill this year, the dogs average 105.8 pts/gm so, obviously, they’ll need to step up their game. And that may too much to ask with two of their starting RBs out on bye. Assuming Jergoff Passout scores 107 points again – far below their average – that should still be plenty enough to tame a Perros team that has reached that total a whopping three times this season.
COMMISH'S PICK: Jergoff Passout
LINE: Pork Chop Express -11
Neither team has anything to play for, but I’m sure both would like to end the regular season on a positive note. Though they have identical records, Do Not Panic and Pork Chop Express have had very different seasons. Do Not Panic’s problem is that they’ve been so calm and collected all season that they forgot they need to score to win. With a season-best of 113 points and an average scored of only 93.4 pts/gm, Panic has earned their share of disappointment. Though the Chops have also been guilty of failing to produce on occasion, the fact that they’re the 5th highest scoring team in the league tells me they should’ve been nicer to Karen in the scheduling department. The call on this matchup seems straightforward to me.
COMMISH'S PICK: Pork Chop Express
LINE: Thundabuddies -14
Pop quiz: who’s the hottest team in the league right now? If you said Thundabuddies, I don’t blame you. They’ve averaged 139.3 pts/gm over their last three and their lowest score in that span is 123. But the correct answer is Chief Sticky Balls. The Balls have turned it on lately, averaging 140.3 pts/gm over the past three weeks while scoring no lower than 126. Sadly, though, they found their groove too late as their mid-season slump could likely cause them to miss the playoffs for the first time in four years. Disappointing as that may be, the Balls can still end their regular season with a win against one of the best teams in the league. The problem is that they’ll have to do so without Jonathan Taylor. And if you’ve paid attention this season, you already know that the Balls don’t win without him. After losing Taylor in week 5, the Balls went on to lose five straight. Take the Buddies but expect Chief Sticky Balls to keep it interesting.
COMMISH'S PICK: Thundabuddies
LINE: NH Bounty Hunters -6
The Consolation Kings square off against the Bounty Hunters in the 2022 Desperation Bowl. Both teams need to win to keep their playoff dreams alive so expect both teams to leave it all out on the field this week. Led by workhorses like Joe Mixon and Nick Chubb, these two teams are used to grinding it out in low-scoring battles and based on history, that’s exactly what we should expect this week. In eight previous meetings, the Kings and Hunters are even with four wins apiece and an average final score of 93.4 to 90.4 in favor of the Hunters. Make no bones about it, these two are going to land some haymakers against each other this week. But you know what they say about low-scoring games: the team with the $19 D/ST usually wins.
COMMISH'S PICK: Consolation Kings
LINE: Golden Tate Warriors -5
The Warriors are not known for their ability to win close contests. In four games decided by 5 points or less this season they’re 0-4, so you know they’re going to want to get out front by a lot and early. The problem is that Baby Got Dak is not the kind of opponent that just lays down, especially since they need to win this week to make it to the playoffs. This should be one of the better games of the season and could even provide us with a preview of the Championship Game. From top to bottom, both teams have plenty of talented players that should produce some nice totals this week. So much so that this game could be the highest scoring matchup this week. If you’re looking for a clue to pick the winner, look no further than the history between these two. Put simply, the Warriors own Dak at I’m Hurt Again Field winning eight of ten contests by an average score of 109.8 to 88. If Dak can somehow stay within 5 points of the Warriors, they might have a chance. But if the Warriors open up a healthy lead early in the game, well…
COMMISH'S PICK: Golden Tate Warriors
SCL SEGUNDO LEAGUE
LINE: Jalenhouse Rock -16
TJONES enters this contest as the underdog which is a little strange given that they’ve outscored Jalenhouse Rock by more than 10 pts/gm this season. The reason for that might be found if you just looked at their last three games where Rock has outperformed TJONES, 123.3 pts/gm to 121.3 pts/gm. Moreover, TJONES has lost their last two games due to some meager performances. I have little reason to believe they won’t exceed expectations and score somewhere near 115 points. However, Jalenhouse Rock looks like a team hitting their stride at just the right time. Look for Rock to score 125 or more and secure the #1 seed in the Cholla division.
COMMISH'S PICK: Jalenhouse Rock
LINE: The Real Slim Brady -10
The Real Slim Brady wants the #1 seed and a first-round bye. Keenan and Kel-ce wants to secure a post-season berth. There’s a lot on the line for each team in this contest, but don’t let that convince you this game will be close. After scoring 154 points in week 12, Kel-ce came back with a dud in week 13, scoring only 89 points. That’s not going to get it done against the only team that hasn’t scored below 100 points this season. Maybe you think Kel-ce will hit their projections and score 110 points. Nope, still not gonna get it done…Slim Brady averages 128.7 pts/gm. Still not convinced? Here are two more reasons you should take Slim Brady this week: (1) they’re 5-1 at home this season while outscoring opponents 130.3 to 104.8 and, (2) they’re 4-1 against teams from the Cholla division. And that, ladies and gents, is why I'm taking Kel-ce and boldly predicting The Real Slim Brady doesn't reach 100 points for the first time this season.
COMMISH'S PICK: Keenan and Kel-ce
LINE: Ohio State Gunkeyes -18
Though the Tots are technically still in the playoff mix, the reality is that their odds are about as good as Russell Wilson’s odds are of winning the MVP award this season. So, what do you do if it looks like you’re headed for the Consolation Bracket? You try to bring a friend along, like the Ohio State Gunkeyes who are hanging on by a thread themselves. The Gunkeyes have lost two of their last three with their only win being a 96-89 stinker against Keenan and Kel-ce last week. The Tots will surely focus their defensive efforts on Josh Allen but, at the end of the day, we’re still talking about a QB that averages over 28 pts/gm. If Lamar Jackson doesn’t suit up, I can’t see Huntley being able to provide the counter necessary to take down a Gunkeyes team that should be able to score 120 or more.
COMMISH'S PICK: Ohio State Gunkeyes
LINE: Najee Germany -6
We’re on to Cleveland! needs to win this game or they’ll be at the mercy of their division rivals to determine whether they see the post-season. The good news is that they’re facing a Germany team that hasn’t won a game since week 6 and has averaged a league-worst 97.6 pts/gm over that span. Things are bad in the Deutschland, to say the least. Truthfully, there’s no logical reason to pick Germany. Their average score this season is 101.5 which is a scoring level Cleveland! has failed to reach only once this season. But if I’ve learned anything throughout the years, it’s that when a match seems this lopsided, it usually doesn’t go the way you think it will. Add Germany to your parlay ticket and bump up your payout.
COMMISH'S PICK: Najee Germany
LINE: My Chubb's Hardman -3
BREAKING: There’s been a Hardman sighting! Last week, My Chubb’s Hardman joined the league and posted their highest score of the season, putting 135 points down on Najee Germany. Shiva Kaminis, on the other hand, scored only 88 points losing – again – to Cleveland! in what was their third game under 100 points over the past four weeks. Are we hoping see league scoring records fall in this matchup? No. But, I’m hopeful we’ll still get to see a competitive battle between two teams with nothing to lose. There’s enough talent among both teams to see both teams score over 115 points, something neither of them do very often. If you’re looking for the winner in this contest, best to stick with the team that’s averaged more over the past three weeks. Take My Chubb’s Hardman.
COMMISH'S PICK: My Chubb's Hardman
LINE: Chubby Chase -15
As well as these two teams have played this season, this matchup could very well be a preview of the Championship Game. The fact that Chubby Chase is a two TD favorite puzzles me. Sure, I recognize BattleBornKid is without a few players this week, but Chase will take to the field without Fields. Did the oddsmakers not notice BattleBorn’s stretch of seven straight victories? Or, the fact that they’ve averaged 139 pts/gm over their last three? Look, Chubby Chase is no slouch – “don’t sell yourself short, you’re a helluva slouch” – and as the third highest scoring team in the league, they’ve proven they can hang with anyone. In my opinion, this contest boils down to who needs it more. If Chubb comes away with the victory, they set themselves up for a possible #1 seed should Jalenhouse Rock fall. If BattleBornKid wins, they too could possibly earn a first-round bye. But Chubby has been on a mission to prove themselves after receiving an F on their draft report card. I’m taking Chase by the slimmest of margins.
COMMISH'S PICK: Chubby Chase
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