SAGEBRUSH CACTUS LEAGUE
LINE: NH Bounty Hunters -3
Last week, Panic produced their best score of the season, 137 points. Coincidentally, the Hunters also posted their highest score of the year, 159, suggesting this could be a tough battle betwen two teams playing for very different reasons. The Bounty Hunters need this game to punch their ticket to the postseason while Panic will be looking to throw a wrench into the works. Are the Hunters capable to scoring near their 152.0 pts/gm average over the past 2 weeks? No. Several players in the Hunters starting lineup have difficult matchups making 100 points more of a ceiling than a floor. On the other hand, does Panic have enough offensive firepower to easily top the century mark? Again, no. This game looks like one that should be won by the last team with the ball. And since the Bounty Hunters have never beaten Do Not Panic, I'll take the underdog by a FG.
COMMISH'S PICK: Do Not Panic
LINE: Los Perros Locos -16
You'd be a fool to take the spread in this game. Granted, the Perros understand they must win this game if they're to have a chance at making the playoffs. But allow me to point out that Badazz Bri is a better team on the road where they average 6.1 pts/gm more than they do at home. Moreover, the Perros's defense has allowed more points to opponents visiting the Puppy Mill in their last 3 home games (118.3 pts/gm) than they did in their first 3 home games (69.3 pts/gm). This suggests Bri's offense should be able to surpass their season average of 90.2 pts/gm. But let's say they do so, let's say Bri scores 105 or 110. That still leaves them short of the dog's lowest score over the past 4 weeks, 111 points. The fact is, the dogs are cornered right now and it looks like they're gonna bite back.
COMMISH'S PICK: Los Perros Locos
LINE: EVEN
It did not go well for Passout the last time they traveled to What Are I Field, in 2021, where they suffered a 67-point loss and nearly found themselves eliminated from the playoffs. This time around, with their postseason ticket already in hand, they'll be trying to see if they can earn the #1 seed and a bye. But it won't be easy. If you ask me, Who Is You is possibly the best of the teams that have already signed up for the Consolation Bracket. Their season has been plagued by underperformances from a number of talented players and it would seem logical to me that they'll want to go out with a bang. Even with Jefferson back on the field for Passout, Stroud will have a tougher time that usual finding his WRs against a well prepared You defense. In what could be the highest scoring game of the week, give me Who Is You to improve their all-time record against Passout to 3-0 by less than a TD.
COMMISH'S PICK: Who Is You
LINE: Pork Chop Express -10
There aren't many teams around the league that the Chops have struggled against, but the Kings have been a nail in their tire for some time now. In 9 previous meetings, the Chops are 3-6 against the Kings and before you assume they'll have some sort of home-field advantage in Little China this week, let me remind you the Kings have held the Chops to an average of 93.2 pts/gm in 5 visits. Also troubling is the fact that, despite having the best record in the league, the Chops are only the 5th highest scoring team in the league suggesting they may not be able to do much better than they typically do against the Kings. Fortunately, though, the Kings have scored more than 100 points just once in the past 8 weeks. The Chops have won low scoring games all season and there's no reason to believe this contest will be any different.
COMMISH'S PICK: Pork Chop Express
LINE: Golden Tate Warriors -20
If you're waiting for my analysis before you place your bet on this contest, you're overthinking it. Take the Warriors with the confidence level of a person that completes crossword puzzles in pen.
COMMISH'S PICK: Golden Tate Warriors
LINE: Digg-A-Watt -1
There's some debate among the Ranking Committee members about whether Dak should still be the #1 team. Through the first 6 weeks of the season they were 6-0 and averaged 135.8 pts/gm. But since week 7, they're 2-5 and their average score has fallen to 107.4 pts/gm. This matchup should be a good test for them when they host a Watts team that has hit their stride just in time for the postseason, winning 5 of their last 7 while averaging 114.6 pts/gm. After topping 100 points just once through the first 6 weeks of the season, Digg-A-Watts hasn't scored below 104 since, indicating they'll probably be able to put points on the board. I'm sure their staff has some creative strategies in mind for Mixon and Kamara to help take the pressure off Dobbs and allow him to find his WRs. The question is, can Dak find a way to get back to their early-season form? If you ask me, I think they land somewhere between where they were and where they are, maybe around 115 points...which is just shy of where I think Digg-A-Watts finishes.
COMMISH'S PICK: Digg-A-Watts
SCL SEGUNDO LEAGUE
LINE: Ridley's Parlays -2
Will I be watching this game between two bottom-feeders that have already been eliminated from the playoffs? Absolutely. Why? Because history could be made. The worst regular-season team in league history was back in 2014 when Who Is You finished 1-12. Already at 1-12, Ridley's Parlays would enter the record books as the team with the most regular-season losses if they fall to Carr this week. For what it's worth, I think this will be a close contest, though not high-scoring. I like the Parlays opportunity to control the pace with their superior running game and, although I think Carr will see some success in the air, the Parlays should be able to avoid legendary humiliation.
COMMISH'S PICK: Ridley's Parlays
LINE: Ohio State Gunkeyes -30
Here's a little statistical morsel that will probably surprise you: Over the past 5 weeks, Burrowito Bowl is averaging more points per game than the Gunkeyes. It's true! The Gunkeyes are 3-2 with an average score of 105.4 over their last 5 while Bowl is 1-4 with an average of 106.2 pts/gm. Now that that's out there, am I considering taking Bowl? Not a chance. Sure, the Gunkeyes have been a little shaky on offense lately, but their defense has been stingy, allowing just 88.7 pts/gm to their last 5 opponents. Occasionally, Burrowito Bowl's offense can seem impressive. But heading back to Conjunctivitus Coliseum where they won last season, 129-112, to face a Gunkeyes team that hasn't forgotten seems like mission impossible. Get the Visine ready.
COMMISH'S PICK: Ohio State Gunkeyes
LINE: Tallaassee Tator Tots -27
This just doesn't seem like a fair fight. The Tots have won 6 of their last 7 while averaging 127.4 pts/gm. Shiva Kaminis, on the other hand, was won only 1 of their last 7 games while averaging just 95.9 pts/gm which probably explains the spread of nearly 4 TDs. When the Tots visited Somakandarkram Stadium last year, they came away with 30-point victory, 139-109. With the Tots' Josh Allen on bye last week, he's had 2 weeks to prepare for this game and figure out the many ways he can find to get the ball to Chase, Collins, and Kelce. Even the best teams in the league would have a tough time stopping that air attack. Sadly for Kaminis, I think the Tots are just too hot to touch.
COMMISH'S PICK: Tallaassee Tator Tots
LINE: Jalenhouse Rock -8
Though they've won their last 2 contests, it proved to be too little too late for the Runningbacks. Yes, a team that began their season 4-1 - capped off with 200 pts in week 5 - could not find their way to ease their discontent throughout the bye-week period, finishing 0-6 in weeks 6 through 11. But before they head into the Consolation Bracket, where they'll transition from disgruntled to irrelevant, they'll get one more chance to take out their frustrations against one of the best teams in the league: Jalenhouse Rock. Over the past 3 weeks, Rock has scored 120, 148 and 141 points for an average score of 136.3 pts/gm. To put that into context, the Runningbacks have topped 136 points just twice this season. There's no doubt about it, Rock will score. But I like the Runningbacks to finish the season on a positive note that helps return as the Satisfied Slot Receivers next year.
COMMISH'S PICK: Disgruntled Runningbacks
LINE: MaxxCasualties -38
It appears Belichicks Hoodie pulled their drawstrings too tight because I'm not sure they can see they don't have a QB - as of this writing - to lead their offense onto the field. However, I'm not sure that it matters. Looking through their starting lineup this week, I'm not optimistic they'll be able to continue their current streak of 4 straight 100+-point games. Through 13 weeks of play, Hoodie has outscored MaxxCasualties 4 times which should tell you that this contest was already an uphill battle. Featuring unfavorable player matchups at nearly every position, I'll be surprised if Hoodie comes within 30 points of the Casualties.
COMMISH'S PICK: MaxxCasualties
LINE: TJONES35 -4
Don't be fooled by their Power Ranking, the Rogues are a handful. Their lower-than-expected ranking can be traced back to their slow start through the first half of the season, 2-4 with an average score of 95.2 pts/gm. Since then, the Rogues are 5-2 and their average score has ballooned to 129.3 pts/gm. Did I mention they accomplished this turnaround without Justin Jefferson? TJONES, on the other hand, has been the clear #1 team all season...except for the past 2 weeks. Through their first 11 games of the season, the lowest score TJONES tallied was 109 points on their way to racking up 10 wins. Since then, though, they've scored just 99 and 90 in two losing efforts. In the final showdown of the regular season, I expect both teams will come out strong in what could be a preview of the championship game. I like the Gotham Rogues to total around 125 to 130 points...about 5 fewer than TJONES.
COMMISH'S PICK: TJONES35
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