After losing their first 6 games last season, and surrendering 200 or more points twice in that span, Badazz Bri still appears to struggle on defense after giving up 141 points to Sticky Balls last week. So there's no doubt in my mind that they're looking forward to facing a TD's team that posted a league-low of 52 points in week 1. Better still, Badazz Bri is 3-0 at home all-time against Flash Dem TD's with a 19-point average margin of victory. The bad news is that Flash Dem TD's should feel a little extra motivation to rebound this week and, judging by their player matchups, I expect we'll see them score over 100 this week. I don't anticipate any record-breaking scores from this matchup, but I think it should be a far more interesting game than their Power Rankings would suggest. My money will be on Bri for the win, but look for TD's to cover the spread.
LINE: Badazz Bri -5
COMMISH'S PICK: Badazz Bri
These two teams have faced off 26 times in what is the oldest on-going rivalry in the league. Baby Got Dak holds a slight advantage in the record books, winning 14 of those matchups against Los Perros Locos. But, things are different when they're the visiting team. In 11 visits to The Pound, Dak is 4-7 and has been outscored an average of 108.6 to 89.7. To make things worse, it's been 8 weeks, including the playoffs, since Baby Got Dak scored more than 100 points. On the bright side, however, Dak has won their last 7 against Perros so maybe this is the matchup they need to turn things around. Nah, who am I kidding? This matchup has upset written all over it. Take Perros with confidence and, if you're feeling extra lucky, tease your bet.
LINE: Baby Got Dak -2
COMMISH'S PICK: Los Perros Locos
Since Blue Ribbon joined the league in 2015, only two teams have a winning record against them: Baby Got Dak and Who Is You. However, Golden Tate Warriors is on the cusp of joining that group if they can pull off a victory this week. The Warriors are 4-4 against Ribbon all-time and they've played their best when on the road, posting a 3-2 record at Pabst Palace. But, this is a statement game for Blue Ribbon after suffering a disappointing loss to McMingle last week despite posting the 3rd highest scoring in the league. The individual player matchups for the Warriors look pretty good and I expect they'll top the 100-point mark. But, the player matchups for Ribbon look a little better and they have a lot of young talent ready to show up. Like I said, Blue Ribbon will be looking to plant a flag this week and my gut tells me this matchup could easily end with them winning by at least 15 points.
LINE: Blue Ribbon -4
COMMISH'S PICK: Blue Ribbon
The line on this game suggests the Chops should have no problem taking care of business against Who Is You this week. And really, who could argue with that logic? The Pork Chop Express are the defending champs of the Cactus division, they're coming off a week where they posted the highest score in their division, and they're sitting atop the Power Rankings. Well, I'm going to go against the grain on this one. In 5 matchups at the Pork Chops house, Who Is You owns a 3-2 record and they outscore them by over 14 points, on average. This You team is scrappy and they have enough talent to pull it off. Plus, I'm a little skeptical of the individual player projections for the Chops this week. They seem overly optimistic and I think Who Is You will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing 3-point loss in a game they should've won last week. In the end, the Chops might still pull this one out, but I'm willing to risk my bet on Who Is You to catch them off guard.
LINE: Pork Chop Express -6
COMMISH'S PICK: Who Is You
These two teams are happy they don't have to travel west this week as they square off in the Duel for the Dunkies. Throughout the history of their rivalry, Bounty Hunters has been the better team, taking 7 of 12 games including all 3 matchups on their home turf. While they normally outscore Thunda Buddies by an average of 14.2 points at home, the Hunters will need to step it up a notch should they be without Michael Thomas who's listed as "doubtful". In my opinion, this matchup comes down to the quarterback play, and Lamar Jackson clearly has the better matchup. When Jackson faced off against Houston in week 11 last season, he finished the day with 39 points. I expect we'll see another big day from him and that should be enough to lift up the Bounty Hunters and extend their home winning streak against Thunda Buddies.
LINE: Thunda Buddies -1
COMMISH'S PICK: NH Bounty Hunters
The marquee matchup of week 2 gives us two teams that know how to score. The defending champs, Chief Sticky Balls, was one of the highest scoring teams last season and they look like they haven't lost a step in putting up the second highest week 1 score in the league. Their opponent, Christian McMingle, topped the league last week with 148 points, and I should take this opportunity to remind you that they also hold the league record for highest score with 233 points in week 5 of last season. The over-under on this game sits at 218 points and I have no problem betting the over. In two games against the Balls last year, McMingle forgot to bring their "A" game and scored only 81 and 71 points, respectively. They won't make that mistake again as I think they'll top 100 points with ease. The problem is their ability to slow Chief Sticky Balls on the defensive side of things. Take Sticky Balls and give the points.
LINE: Chief Sticky Balls -8
COMMISH'S PICK: Chief Sticky Balls
留言