LINE: Badazz Bri -1
Hoping to improve on their lowly 1-5 record at home last season, Badazz Bri will take on a Bounty Hunters team that was just throttled by the defending champs last week, 169-96. In five previous games at home against the Bounty Hunters, Bri holds a slight advantage with a 3-2 record. However, in those five contests, the Bounty Hunters hold the advantage in the scoring department where they average 120 pts/gm to Bri's 114.6 pts/gm. The last time these two teams met, the Hunters came away with a 129-80 victory led by Washington D/ST who scored 23 points. In that game, the Bounty Hunters defense was able to corral DeAndre Hopkins and hold him to just 6 points. But this time, Bri also brings Davante Adams to the game which presents a huge problem for defenses. How can you possibly shut down both receivers? And I would be willing to bet my annual Commissioner's salary that Aaron Rodgers will score more that 1 point this week.
COMMISH'S PICK: Badazz Bri
LINE: Chief Sticky Balls -9
Normally, this would be one of the better contests this week. In the 6 times that Perros has hosted the Sticky Balls, they've split the series with 3 wins apiece. Moreover, they've been pretty close games with the Perros averaging 101.5 pts/gm to the Balls 101 pts/gm. But before you go thinking that the Sticky Balls' 89 points last week might be a sign of trouble, consider that that is only the 2nd time in their last 11 regular season games that they've failed to top 100. For comparison, the Perros' 58 points last week was the 8th time in their last 11 regular season games that they've scored below 100 points. One of these teams is not like the other and when you add in the fact that every starter for Chief Sticky Balls is playing at home this week, things really begin to look lopsided in this matchup. Could Los Perros Locos show up and surprise everyone? Sure. But, I could also be struck by lightning at any time. I just wouldn't bet on it. There's a reason this game offers the largest point spread. Grab the Balls, give the points, and move along.
COMMISH'S PICK: Chief Sticky Balls
LINE: EVEN
The Pork Chop Express open up a 4-game home stretch against a team that outscored them last week despite losing. And the last two times that the Chops faced a newcomer to the league, they lost and fell short of the 100-point threshold in either game. In fact, they're only 2-3 all-time when facing teams that are new to the league with an average game score of 106 points. And although the Chops have been a playoff team more often than not, they have a sub-.500 all-time home record, 32-35. Oh, and did I mention Kyler Murray dropped a 44-point game on them during his last visit to Little China? You don't need to be a rocket scientist to consider all of the facts I've just laid out and come to a clear, concise conclusion. Obviously I'm taking the Pork Chop Express.
COMMISH'S PICK: Pork Chop Express
LINE: Baby Got Dak -6
I want you to consider the number 679. No, that's not the number of times Badazz Bri has talked trash before a loss. Nor is it the amount that Pork Chop Express just paid for a free agent. It's the number of days since Dak last defeated a team from the Sagebrush division. One year, 10 months, 9 days ago. We'll need to dial the time machine all the way back to week 10 of the 2019 season to find Dak's last inter-league victory. It's been a while. And now, Do Not Panic will bring that rookie energy and their unblemished all-time record of 1-0 into town. Panic's 140-point game last week was the 2nd highest score in league history for a team in their inaugural game, so we know they're better than projected. But, Dak can score too. Last week, they put up 129 points and a win against a Thunda Buddies team that is no pushover. For Panic to succeed, they'll need to see the same level of production from their top players and with some very favorable matchups this week, they just might get it. I'll take Do Not Panic to stay cool, calm, collected and move that number to 693.
COMMISH'S PICK: Do Not Panic
LINE: Who Is You -7
An impressive 169-point performance at home last week has You feeling good about this season. They picked up right where they left off last year, when they posted a 5-2 record at their friendly confines. And, they'll look to keep that momentum going against the Golden Tate Warriors who escaped last week with a 1-point upset against Chief Sticky Balls. Golden Tate has had their struggles against Who Is You in the past, winning only 3 of 10 contests, all-time. However, all 3 of those victories came on the road, so there's a bright side in there somewhere. Also worth noting is the fact that Tate averages almost 17 more points per game when visiting You, 107.2 to 90.8. In last season's meeting, You held Tate's Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs to a combined total of only 24 points. I'm skeptical they'll be able to repeat that with both players enjoying a favorable matchup against Miami. But having said that, I'm still not sure that Tate has the firepower to keep up with You, who I expect will enjoy another big day. I can easily see a 135-point game from you which should be more than enough.
COMMISH'S PICK: Who Is You
LINE: Thunda Buddies -7
If there's any team that Christian McMingle looks forward to playing more than Badazz Bri, it has to be Thunda Buddies. In 8 games against the Buddies, McMingle has walked away the victor 6 times. Moreover, in 5 games as the away team, McMingle has lost only once. If their last meeting at Flash Gordon Field is any indication, this could be a really close game. In 2019, they came away with a 2-point victory after defeating Bri, 233-102, in the week prior. Sound familiar? McMingle just blew out Bri last week and now they're headed to one of their favorite venues. Could history repeat itself? With a variety of favorable matchups, I think the Buddies will have no problem scoring. And since we already know that McMingle can score too, this game should be a fun one to watch. I expect another close game between these two in what should be the highest scoring game of the week and I'll take McMingle to win by 2 points. Again.
COMMISH'S PICK: Christian McMingle
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