SAGEBRUSH CACTUS LEAGUE
LINE: EVEN
At first glance, this game looks like a dud. Both teams lost in the first week with neither of them scoring more than 70 points. But before you reach for the TV remote, know that these teams are better than that. In fact, I'm willing to go out on a limb and suggest there's a good chance both will top 100 points this week at Composure Coliseum. As the spread would suggest, they're pretty evenly matched. Each has a quality starter at QB, good RBs, and TEs that could surprise at any time. The biggest difference is in their receiving corps. If you want my opinion, which I'm going to give you anyway, the Kings have the advantage at WR with Tee Higgins & Davante Adams more capable than DK Metcalf and George Pickens. If you combine that with the fact the Kings have never lost to Panic, the pick seems obvious.
COMMISH'S PICK: Consolation Kings
LINE: Pork Chop Express -5
Frankly, I'm surprised to see the line as low as it is in this game. If you've been around this league long enough, I don't need to tell you that the Pork Chops own the Bounty Hunters. In 15 previous meetings, the Chops have come away with 12 wins while outscoring the Bounty Hunters 110.3 pts/gm to 93.8 pts/gm. But, wait...there's more. When the Hunters visit Little China, their average score falls to 88.3 pts/gm. The last time the Hunters defeated the Chops in a regular season matchup was in the final week of 2020, when they were 3-9 and had nothing left to lose. Don't get cute, just take the Chops and collect your winnings.
COMMISH'S PICK: Pork Chop Express
LINE: Digg-A-Watts -9
After scoring only 63 points in the first week of play, I'd like to think there's nowhere to go but up for Badazz Bri. They may not have the strongest roster in the league, but I think they have enough talent to finish better than their 3-11 record last season...or their 4-10 record the year before that. This is at least a 5 win team. Looking to earn their first win, Bri will host Digg-A-Watts at The Boone's Farm Drunk Tank where candy is dandy, but liquor is quicker. When I first saw this contest on the schedule, I truly believed there would be more trash-talk between these two, but they've both been relatively quite preparing for this game. Watts and Bri should both play well in a close contest that shouldn't threaten any of the league's scoring records. In the end, I think Watts has the roster with more upside potential so I guess I'll take them...but I'm not giving more than 6 points.
COMMISH'S PICK: Digg-A-Watts
LINE: Golden Tate Warriors -11
We're only in week 2 and Passout's coaching staff already appears to have some doubts about Dak Prescott being able to lead this team. Enter the man, the myth, the legend: Mac Jones. Wait, what?!? Though I question the strategy, I'm still on board as I'm sure they've thought more about it than I have. Besides, if they're going to beat the Warriors it will need to be done on the defensive side of the ball. Passout will need to contain several of the Warriors' weapons, especially Josh Allen and CMC. I'm not about to suggest they'll shut them down, but could they hold those two below their projections? Sure. And if they do, Mac won't need to perform any acts of heroism. As long as he can feed the ball to Barkley, Jefferson, and Hill they should score enough to pull off the upset.
COMMISH'S PICK: Jergoff Passout
LINE: Who Is You -19
This is one of those games where you see the line and you think: "WTF?" I can understand if you took Thundabuddies and the points but, beware, it may not turn out the way you think it will. The Buddies are one of those boom or bust teams that will score either 140 or 85 in any given week. And looking over their player matchups, I think this will be one of the 85-point weeks. On the other side of the field, Who Is You appears primed to bounce back from a week 1 loss to the Warriors that saw them struggle and finish under 100. In 4 previous games at What Are I Field, You has averaged 117.75 pts/gm against the Buddies and I foresee them reaching that mark again without a problem. So, yes, I do believe Who Is You will cover. About the only thing that can stop You is the Curse of Thursday Night.
COMMISH'S PICK: Who Is You
LINE: EVEN
The oldest rivalry in the league takes to the field again in what will be their 31st contest. Overall, the Perros own a slight advantage with a 16-14 all-time record against Dak. However, things are different when they play at the Ain't Had Dak In 6 Years Dome. In the 17 games they've hosted, Dak is 10-7 against the Perros and they've outscored them by an average of 107.5 to 103.2. There's no doubt the Perros will have to up their game from last week's pathetic 76-point performance if they want to beat a Dak team that I think will score 110+. Much about this game hinges on the questions of Ekeler's health, and I'm not just talking about him being on the field. If Ekeler plays, and plays well, I can see the Perros coming away with the win in a close battle. If he doesn't...well. I'm willing to take that gamble.
COMMISH'S PICK: Los Perros Locos
SCL SEGUNDO LEAGUE
LINE: Tallaassee Tator Tots -1
Between the injury to Kelce and the terrible play from Burrow last week, Carr's week 1 performance was awful and yet they somehow found a way to win. Similar could be said for the Tator Tots, though they lost their contest despite playing better. What should concern Carr the most is not that they're facing a Tots team that will certainly score more than the 64 points the Rogues scored last week, it's the fact that they're heading into hostile territory when they travel to Ketchup Coliseum this week. Get In D Carr should play well and they'll put up points early. But once those Tots fans get deep into their condiment packets during the second half, watch out. It'll be a rowdy atmosphere and I expect that should be enough of an edge to push the Tator Tots to victory.
COMMISH'S PICK: Tallaassee Tator Tots
LINE: Disgruntled Runningbacks -7
I've heard some grumbling that I didn't give the Runningbacks their due after coming away with 135 points and a win against the Gunkeyes last week. Well, here it is: good job. This week, the Runningbacks will head into Guac Is Extra Stadium to try their hand at taking down Burrowito Bowl. If you only looked at week 1 - which I warned you against - you'd assume Bowl will be an easier opponent. I don't think that's the case. Last week's 78 points from Bowl might end up being their lowest score of the season. The talent on this team is pretty deep and I'd put them in the category of scoring 120+ points in most weeks. That's a level of scoring I think the Runningbacks will hit from time-to-time but I don't think this week is one of those times. Moreover, I'll venture Bowl hasn't forgotten about their 79-75 home loss to the Runningbacks in week 6 of last season.
COMMISH'S PICK: Burrowito Bowl
LINE: Jalenhouse Rock -13
If there's one thing I know for sure, it's that Tyreek Hill will not score 41.7 point again this week. He might score 61.7 points, but he definitely won't score what he did last week. I guess what I'm trying to say is that the Gunkeyes will have their hands full trying to keep him in check. If you look back on their game against the Runningbacks, I'd say they did alright, holding 3 WRs to 35 points. But, they can do better...and they'll have to. Jalenhouse Rock is one of the best teams in the league. If you're going to beat them, you'll not only need to deal with their WRs, but their RBs and QB too. Their only weakness, if you want to call it that, might be at the TE position. I can see the Gunkeyes defense forcing Rock to beat them with their TE, giving them a chance to sneak out of town with the upset victory.
COMMISH'S PICK: Ohio State Gunkeyes
LINE: Ridley's Parlays -10
There's good reason to believe the odds makers know what they're doing setting a double-digit line in this contest. There's a lot of talent on this Parlays team that is looking to bounce back from a tough loss last week. Chief among them are all of the NY Giants players who should do better against the AZ Cardinals. Plus, if you just move down each roster, the Parlays appear to have the better player at most positions. But there's something I think people are forgetting: the fact that the Parlays were 0-2 against Kaminis last season, losing 133-78 in week 5 and 97-87 in week 11. And this is a better Kaminis team than that one was. Like the Parlays, I enjoy a good gamble...gimme Kaminis.
COMMISH'S PICK: Shiva Kaminis
LINE: TJONES35 -9
I mentioned it at the end of my last post: MaxxCasualties looked a lot better than I expected in week 1. I think the pres-season projections were a little too harsh on them and I think they'll play well more often than not. But this is one of those weeks where they'll struggle. Up and down their roster I see player matchups that don't seem favorable to me. And, they're playing on the road in ALL CAPS ARENA against a TJONES35 team that scored 113 points last week even with a few of their stars producing below projections. Watching them in practice this week, the TJONES players look ready to deliver this week. I can see them coming in somewhere in the 125+ range which should be more than enough to beat a Casualties team that might not top 100 points.
COMMISH'S PICK: TJONES35
LINE: Bellichicks Hoodie -7
Of all the games I looked over this week, this one may have been the toughest for me to pick. Before you bother calling me crazy and pointing out the fact that Hoodie scored almost twice as many points as the Rogues last week, let me explain. The Rogues WRs will score a lot more than they did last week and I expect their QB, Geno Smith, will have a better week too. What gives me pause is their RB situation, specifically Joshua Kelley. If Ekeler sits out and Kelley get the start, I think the Rogues have a shot at winning. But if Kelley doesn't get the start then I think this game goes to Hoodie. Regardless, I think the line is off. I expect to see a very close game at the Dolla Dolla Bill Dome that hinges on Kelley's opportunities. Straight up, I'll take Bellichicks Hoodie. If I'm playing the spread, I'll take Gotham Rogue.
COMMISH'S PICK: Bellichicks Hoodie
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