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Writer's pictureCommish

Week 3 Commish's Picks


LINE: Jergoff Passout -25

It's been a while since we've seen a spread this large, but it's understandable. Badazz Bri hasn't been so badass in failing to score more than 90 points in a game yet this season. And it seems like the gurus over at ESPN are feeling generous in projecting Bri to score 95, especially when you consider that six of their starters are projected to outperform their average this week. On the other side of the ball is a Passout team that features three players ranked in the top 5 at their position. For comparison, Bri offers 1. This Jergoff Passout team has largely been led by the play of their QB, Kyler Murray, and the Broncos D/ST. Week 3 offers very favorable matchups for each and Passout will likely rely on them again until they can figure out what is going on with Kamara and Barkley who are only averaging 14 pts/gm, combined. I don't expect Passout to set any scoring records, but a 100-point game should be enough to grab the victory in this matchup. For Badazz Bri, who started the season 0-4 last year, it looks like history could be repeating itself.

COMMISH'S PICK: Jergoff Passout


LINE: Golden Tate Warriors -9

I'm not sure what the Warriors said to Janet in the SCL Scheduling Department, but it must've been pretty bad. How else do you explain a 6-game road trip to begin the season? Nonetheless, here they are on stop number three at Namaste Park to take on a Do Not Panic team that is looking to bounce back from a tough loss last week. To make matters worse, consider that the Warriors have not outscored Panic yet this season, though last week they only fell 6 points shy. And if this is the week they're going to do it, they'll need to accomplish a few things. For starters, they'll need to contain Brady and not allow him to just throw TDs at will. Secondly, they'll need to get better production from Edwards-Helaire and Najee Harris who account for almost half of the Warriors auction budget and an average of 15 pts/wk, combined. Needless to say, when you drop that kind of coin on 2 players, you expect dividends. For Do Not Panic, the key is to...well, not panic. Brady will probably throw for 827 yards and 9 TDs this week, but what they really need is to find a backfield recipe that works. I'm not sure that Peyton Barber has what it takes if Josh Jacobs is unable to suit up and, if that's the case, I think Golden Tate cruises to an easy victory. And even if Jacobs plays, I'd still favor the Warriors given they have a lot of potential that should show up any day now.

COMMISH'S PICK: Golden Tate Warriors


LINE: Thundabuddies -1

Whether you call them Thundabuddies, Thundah Buddies, Thunder Buddies, or Thundahbuddies, just don't call them weak. The Thundabuddies have scored more than 110 points in their last 4-straight games, going back to last season. If last week's 158-point performance was any indication, this team can put up the numbers to compete with anyone. The Bounty Hunters, on the other hand, haven't realized the same level of success in recent times. Although they scored a respectable 118 points last week, that is still only 2 points better than the Thundabuddies lowest score this season. If they're going to have any chance at victory, they'll need Lamar Jackson and Joe Mixon to continue playing well. But, they'll also need their receivers and tight end to step up like they haven't yet this season - in a big way. I have a feeling that the Buddies are still a little bent about scoring 180 points in that infamous 2013 matchup where they lost by 6 points. Yes, you read that right, they scored 180 and lost to the Bounty Hunters. And though I don't think they'll hit that level of output this week, the Thundabuddies should still come away with the easy win.

COMMISH'S PICK: Thundabuddies


LINE: Chief Sticky Balls -8

This rematch of the 2020 Sagebrush Divisional Championship game certainly looks very different from last season. While McMingle saw a massive drop in scoring last week, from 160 to 96, the reality is that they can't play Badazz Bri every week. And with Gronk and McCaffrey both playing well, it's only a matter of time before the others come around and pick up the slack. The biggest difference in this game appears to be on the Chief Sticky Balls side of the field. It's no secret that the lackluster play of Herbert, Taylor, and Metcalf is a big reason why the Balls are in a very unfamiliar position to start this season: 0-2 and averaging only 84 pts/gm. What's worse is that they'll now head into a matchup desperately needing a win with all but 2 of their starters playing on the road this week. That's a tough ask, but they have history on their side. In 6 games against McMingle down in The Nether Region, the Balls have won 4 while averaging 11 points more per game. Additionally, it should be noted that the Balls have won their last 3 contests against McMingle. I think they'll extend that streak and get back on track.

COMMISH'S PICK: Chief Sticky Balls


LINE: Who Is You -5

If I told you that Los Perros Locos were 14-8 all-time against Who Is You, you might be inclined to rush and take the dogs in this contest. But you should know that in the 5 games where Perros have played host, You has won 4. And, in those 5 games, You averages almost 22 points more per game than the Perros, 114.2 to 92.6. Oh, and Who Is You is also the highest scoring team in the league after 2 weeks of play, with 280 total points. Perros? They've scored 191 points so far. There are a lot of familiar faces returning for this game, including a few that have traded jerseys. In the last meeting, Mile Sanders and Diontae Johnson combined for 20 points with Ekeler and A.J. Brown adding only 12 more for Los Perros. But Ekeler and Brown went off in search of greener pastures and signed with You in the off-season. Who Is You will be leading the charge with Mahomes, who scored 21 in that game, and Lamb who chipped in a 5-spot. Terry McLaurin had a terrible day with only 1 point for You in that game. But, like Ekeler and Brown, he decided to try his luck on the other side of the ball this year. The easy pick is Who Is You but more often than not, there's a surprising upset to be found each week. I think this is the one that catches bettors off-guard this week.

COMMISH'S PICK: Los Perros Locos


LINE: Baby Got Dak -1

This is a contest between the movers and the shakers. No, literally. No other team in the league has come close to the number of transactions these two have committed. And for Dak, at least, that strategy has paid off. They're sitting at 2-0 and they're the second highest scoring team in the league. But, if there's any team in the league that can slow down Dak's offensive production, it might be the Chops. Through the first two weeks, no team has allowed fewer points than the Pork Chop Express, 166. So what happens when the two collide? Well, if history is any indication, we should have ourselves a matchup that is worthy of watching. In 11 games against Dak in Little China, the Chops hold a slight edge with 6 wins. And although those contests weren't particularly high-scoring affairs, they were close with the Chops averaging 103.55 pts/gm to Dak's 101.45. It's clear that the bettors are ignoring the first two weeks of the season when you consider the razor-thin line on this game. The player projections for each team show that most, myself included, believe this will be a hard fought battle that ends with the winner as merely the one left standing. You wouldn't be wrong to pick either team but, for my money, the Chops are the team to take.

COMMISH'S PICK: Pork Chop Express

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