SAGEBRUSH CACTUS LEAGUE
LINE: Do Not Panic -6
There aren't many matchups on the board for this week that are worse than this one. Neither of these teams have done much to impress this season so the bar is low. Last week, Panic was able to cobble together 134 points, which is great, but I think that's the exception, not the rule. This week, I'm a little surprised if they top 100. Which brings me to the Perros. There's no other way to put it other than they've looked awful. But in two previous meetings, they're 2-0 against Panic, averaging 118 points to Panic's 79.5. The last time Panic visited the Puppy Mill, the Perros throttled them 138-61. I certainly don't think that happens again, but the Perros are desperate for a win and I think they get it.
COMMISH'S PICK: Los Perros Locos
LINE: Golden Tate Warriors -6
The last time the Warriors took to the road to take on the Pork Chop Express - in week 4 of 2021 - they came away victorious, 109-84. But that hasn't always been the case. In 8 visits to Little China, the Golden Tate Warriors are 3-5 all-time and they average less than 97 pts/gm. And that gives me pause when I see them favored by almost a TD. I can only assume the odds makers are looking at last week's Chops team that scored only 83 points and anticipating more of the same this week. I agree, the Warriors will win...but I'm not giving any more than a FG on this game.
COMMISH'S PICK: Golden Tate Warriors
LINE: Thundabuddies -15
The Buddies will invite a Passout team they've outscored by an average of 9.3 pts/gm into Flash Gordon Field this week in what most assume will be a no-contest contest. And I can see why. Through the first three weeks, Passout's highest score is 112 points - 3 points less than the Thundabuddies average score. So why on earth would anyone pick Passout? Because the last time they visited the Buddies, they won by 39 points, 142-103. And, because there's a major upset every week...you just need to find it. Well, here it is.
COMMISH'S PICK: Jergoff Passout
LINE: Consolation Kings -7
Admittedly, I did a double-take when I noticed the Kings are the #4 team in the Power Rankings. But when I dug a little deeper, it makes sense. Sure, they bombed in their season-opener, scoring only 64 points, but they've posted scores of 129 and 151 since. Folks, this ain't your average Consolation team. However, they're about to face a real test when they take to the road to face a You team that is looking to bounce back from a terrible week 3. With Aaron Jones expected back on the field this week, Who Is You should have no problem scoring 120+ which is about 6-7 points more than I expect from the Kings.
COMMISH'S PICK: Who Is You
LINE: Baby Got Dak -18
Psssht, lol.
COMMISH'S PICK: Baby Got Dak
LINE: Digg-A-Watts -2
Do I think these two teams are among the best in the league? No. Do I think this game will bring us some quality scoring this week? Again, no. So why would this game be my MOTW? Two reasons: 1) I think it will be a close score and, 2) I have an unwritten rule that I will try to get every team a MOTW at least once during the season. While both have faced their share of struggles in the early weeks of the season, I believe both will step up and deliver at least 100 points...a score the Hunters have reached once - 101 last week - and a level that has defied Watts this season. I think the return of Kamara can be a boost for Watts and they should see an uptick in their running game. But, in the end, Lamar Jackson should be able to find a wide open Olave in the end zone for the go-ahead score.
COMMISH'S PICK: NH Bounty Hunters
SCL SEGUNDO LEAGUE
LINE: MaxxCasualties -6
I'm not sure what MaxxCasualties can do to get the attention of the Ranking Committee members. So far this season, they've topped the 130-point mark twice, including 150 last week. And, yet, they're still only #11 in the Power Rankings. The Rogues' 64-point week 1 is beginning to look more like an anomaly, having averaged 131 pts/gm since. Considering those facts, it's clear you should take the over at 216...they'll hit it before the 4th quarter. In the end, though, the Casualties appear to have the upper hand with regard to fire power. The Rogues will scored plenty, but the Casualties will score plenty more.
COMMISH'S PICK: MaxxCasualties
LINE: TJONES -13
There is absolutely no conceivable reason you should pick against TJONES in this contest. Therefore, it can mean only one thing: the Parlays will shock everyone.
COMMISH'S PICK: Ridley's Parlays
LINE: Belichicks Hoodie -10
Belichicks Hoodie struggled in inter-league play last season, finishing 2-4, with one bright spot: they still averaged almost 119 pts/gm in those contests. Whatever adjustments they made in the off-season appear to have worked since they're 2-0 this season and averaging 134 pts/gm against their Yucca foes. This week, Hoodie will host a Carr team that hasn't exactly received a warm welcome from the league. Since defeating a Rogue team in week 1 that scored only 64 points, Carr is 0-2 while averaging a humdrum 115 pts/gm. If Carr is going to keep pace with Hoodie, they'll need to see stars like Kelce, McLaurin, and Lockett exceed expectations. Sadly, I'm still not sure that will be enough.
COMMISH'S PICK: Belichicks Hoodie
LINE: Tallaassee Tator Tots -1
In the final week of the regular season last year, the Gunkeyes' defense smashed the Tator Tots, holding them to just 68 points. That made short work for the Gunkeyes' offense who scored 98. Let's be clear...it will not be that easy this time around when the Tots come rolling into Conjunctivitis Coliseum. Both teams are among the top 4 highest scoring in the Segundo League and the over/under at 239 reflects that fact. The Tots' Josh Allen should have a solid day throwing to Chase and Allen while the Gunkeyes will take a ground-and-pound approach with CMC, Williams, and Mattison. The scoring in this game should be plentiful and the last team with the ball should earn the win.
COMMISH'S PICK: Tallaassee Tator Tots
LINE: Jalenhouse Rock -4
There's a lot of disagreement about whether Jalenhouse Rock deserves the #1 spot in the Power Rankings. On one hand, they're 1-2. But on the other, they're the highest scoring team in the league. Similarly, you could argue Burrowito Bowl is better than their #10 ranking - they're 1-2, but they've scored 127 and 137 over the past two weeks. Hopefully this week's contest at the Heartbreak Hotel will shed some new light on the debate. Both teams have quality talent throughout their lineup and scoring shouldn't be a problem, but I like Rock to get their revenge for their week 2 loss to Bowl last season.
COMMISH'S PICK: Jalenhouse Rock
LINE: Disgruntled Runningbacks -1
Fresh off their bye week against Ridley's Parlays, the Runningbacks will head into Somakandarkram Stadium to take on a Kaminis team that has seen their final score increase each week. Unfortunately, despite each Kaminis score being higher than the previous, their high is still only 113...which happens to be exactly what the Runningbacks average on a weekly basis. I like both teams to score north of 120 points this week and I believe we'll see a close contest with the key to victory being the RB position. And though they're not very happy, I give a slight advantage to the Runningbacks' duo of Ekeler and Etienne.
COMMISH'S PICK: Disgruntled Runningbacks
Comments