SAGEBRUSH CACTUS LEAGUE
LINE: Chief Sticky Balls -1
I know what you're thinking: Why is the over/under at 237 for this game? And I get it. Neither team scored more than 78 points last week. But that's the exception and not the rule. Both teams are loaded with talent and they're led by two of the best QBs in the game: Herbert and Mahomes. The last time the Chops invited the Balls down to Little China, in week 6 of 2019, they won in a shoot-out; 136-131. It's possible we see another match like that this week - a close game with plenty of action. Get your popcorn ready for the show and look for Pork Chop Express to get back on the right track.
COMMISH'S PICK: Pork Chop Express
LINE: Los Perros Locos -1
Are you willing to take the Perros and give a point? If you are, I have some property in the Tampa Bay area that I'd like to offer you. Let's not beat around the bush. The Los Perros Locos are averaging less than 70 pts/gm while allowing 119.3 pts/gm. That's a 50-point difference! On average! For what it's worth, the Kings aren't much better on defense, allowing 117.3 pts/gm. However, they're scoring an average of 111.6 pts/gm, so they're at least competitive. Oh, sure...you'll look to the fact that the Perros are 4-1 all-time when hosting the Kings to try to make a case, but are you willing to bank on that? Don't let the dogs piss on your ticket. Crown the Kings and collect your bounty.
COMMISH'S PICK: Consolation Kings
LINE: Who Is You -8
Maybe don't panic, but it's certainly time to be concerned for Who Is You after they suffered a second straight loss while only scoring 72 points last week. Fortunately for You, this is the kind of matchup that can help a team turn things around. With a high score of 102 points so far this year, Panic isn't exactly a power house. They're beatable. In their only previous meeting, You defeated Panic 100-71 last season. And like that contest, it should only take about 100 points to beat Panic this time around - something You has already accomplished twice this season. Take Who Is You and give the points in a contest that can only be described as "meh".
COMMISH'S PICK: Who Is You
LINE: Jergoff Passout -3
If you bought a ticket to this game, you're probably hoping is doesn't play out like their meeting last season where Passout defeated Dak, 62-60. Nobody enjoys a defensive battle in fantasy football. And, fortunately, both teams look primed for action in what might be the highest scoring game of the week. My gut tells me the RBs in this matchup will lead the way while the WRs will have good, but not great, games themselves. The deciding factor will probably be the QB position. With their QBs, Burrow and Tagovailoa, playing against each other tonight, I'm certain both owners will be following that game closely. Burrow would seem to have the higher ceiling and I realize Tua may not play the entire game, if at all. But Tua and the Dolphins have surprised a lot of people and, if he does suit up, I expect they'll do it against Passout this week.
COMMISH'S PICK: Baby Got Dak
LINE: Thundabuddies -12
The history between these two can be a little deceiving. In seven road games against Bri, the Thundabuddies are 5-2 while scoring an average of 133.86 pts/gm. However, in their one and only meeting at Flash Gordon Field, Bri beat the Buddies by 27 points, 106-79. With so many questionable players this week, Bri may find it more difficult to compete this time around. They had a decent showing last week and, overall, I think this is a better team than they've fielded in the past. There's enough talent to keep them in most games this season, but I don't like their odds on the road against a Thundabuddies team that is looking at a 120-point week. Take the Buddies and give the points in a minor setback for Bri.
COMMISH'S PICK: Thundabuddies
LINE: EVEN
Who says fantasy football doesn't mirror real life? The Bills are headed to Baltimore this weekend, and Josh Allen is leading the Warriors down to Slave One stadium to take on Lamar Jackson and the rest of the Bounty Hunters. Though both teams are among the league leaders in scoring this season, that hasn't always been the case when they face off against each other. The Hunters are 2-1 against the Warriors in the three games they've hosted despite being outscored by an average of 99.3 - 96.0, including the Warriors last visit, an 80-91 loss in 2019. But something tells me that the final score will be much higher than usual in this game. You really can't go wrong with either pick. They're both top-notch teams but since the Warriors need this win more, I think they're a little hungrier.
COMMISH'S PICK: Golden Tate Warriors
SCL SEGUNDO LEAGUE
LINE: My Chubb's Hardman -3
While several owners were busy battling it out on draft day for Etienne ($27), My Chubb's Hardman had to be looking on with glee. They had done their research and they ended up drafting James Robinson for $3. To date, Etienne has averaged 7.8 pts/gm to Robinson's 20.9 pts/gm. However, the Gunkeyes had the foresight - pun intended - to sieze a bargain of their own: Christian Kirk ($3). Robinson's teammate is the clear-cut WR1 for Jacksonville, averaging 17.1 pts/gm. Those two players - Robinson and Kirk - will decide this game, folks. Whichever player scores better, relative to their weekly average, will lead their team to victory. For my money, I'm grabbing My Chubb's.
COMMISH'S PICK: My Chubb's Hardman
LINE: We're on to Cleveland! -12
After scoring only a league-low 81 points last week, there's little doubt that BattleBornKid is looking forward to having Herbert playing closer to 100% this week. And I'm sure their WRs, Hill and Samuel, are excited as well after combining for just 13 points in week 3. I have little doubt that they'll score far better this week, but that isn't the problem. The issue I see is with their running game. I just can't see Akers and Jacobs contributing enough to compete with Cleveland!'s RBs. I think this is the week that McCaffrey and Fournette breakout and, if they do, Cleveland! won't need to ask much from Carr and the rest of the team to earn the victory. This game has blowout potential.
COMMISH'S PICK: We're on to Cleveland!
LINE: Jalenhouse Rock -5
Najee Germany ran into the Eastern Bloc last week and were stopped dead in their tracks, scoring a paltry 83 points. Do you even lift, bro? If they're not careful, Germany could experience the same against a Jalenhouse Rock team that has allowed the fourth fewest points in the league. To beat a stingy defense like Rock's, Germany is going to need Ekeler to finally step up and help them control the time of possession. If they fail and allow Hurts and company to run loose, the result could be more like the Battle of Stalingrad instead of the Battle of Tannenberg.
COMMISH'S PICK: Jalenhouse Rock
LINE: The Real Slim Brady -16
Don't let their Power Rankings fool you. If you toss out Slim Brady's phenomenal week 2 performance, these teams are pretty evenly matched. And if you were to dive into their rosters, you'd note that their players lineup very well at almost every position...except for D/ST. Shiva Kaminis clearly has the premier unit, but with the Bills facing Lamar Jackson this weekend, they might finally struggle a little. I'd give Slim a slim advantage in this contest.
COMMISH'S PICK: The Real Slim Brady
LINE: TJONES35 -2
Chubby Chase averages 110.3 pts/gm. TJONES35 averages 134.3 pts/gm. Chubby Chase's lowest score this season is 80 points. TJONES'S lowest score is 121. Jefferson and Chase combined to score 10 points for Chase last week. TJONES only had two players that didn't score at least 10 points in week 3...and one of them was their K. This matchup is so lopsided that it borders on the ridiculous. And in situations where all hope appears lost, people like Danny Noonan rise to the occasion.
COMMISH'S PICK: Chubby Chase
LINE: Keenan and Kel-ce -22
In week 1, Keenan and Kel-ce defeated BattleBornKid, 146-93. In the following week, BattleBornKid went on to beat Jalenhouse Rock, 122-99. After that contest, Jalenhouse Rock defeated Chubby Chase in week 3, 115-109. And that Chubby Chase team is the same one that defeated the Tots back in week 1, 143-86. I'm not sure what you can conclude from that, but I think it's the same logic the odds-makers used to come up with the spread in this game. Can Kel-ce beat the Tots? Sure. Will they beat them by 21 points? Absolutely not. Look, Jackson probably isn't going to score as he did over the first few weeks, but there's plenty of able bodied talent elsewhere on the Tots roster to keep this game competitive. If we see the Keenan Kel-ce team that showed up in week 1, hang on tight...it's gonna be a wild game. But, please, don't go crazy and give 3 TDs to your bookie.
COMMISH'S PICK: Keenan and Kel-ce
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