LINE: Who Is You -2
Last week, Christian McMingle showed us what it takes to defeat Who Is You. And it turns out that it's a pretty simple recipe: just score more point than they do. The fact is, you're not going to stop Mahomes and Ekeler so you're likely to find yourself in a shootout where you'll need to score 120 points, or better, to give yourself a chance. But that might be a tall order for a Pork Chop team that's only averaging 93.5 pts/gm this season. After winning their week 1 matchup on the road with 105 points scored, the Chops have decreased in scoring output each week since. All the way down to just 84 points last week. And they've lost their last 3 games in a row, all at home. Perhaps another road trip is what is needed to get this team energized. Even though it's still early in the season, Pork Chop Express cannot afford to let their record slip to 1-4. In a bit of a statement game, I expect we'll see the Chops play well at home, post their highest score of the season, and pull off the upset to get this rig back on the road toward the playoffs.
COMMISH'S PICK: Pork Chop Express
LINE: Christian McMingle -2
Both of these teams have been on the road since the season started, but it's Christian McMingle that is the first to return home. After taking out one of the two undefeated teams in the Cactus division last week, McMingle heads into this contest on a high and with hopes that their namesake will be able to suit up. And, they're gonna need him too. Over the last three weeks, the Golden Tate Warriors have scored 115.7 pts/gm. That's almost 23 points more per game than McMingle's 93 pts/gm. As luck would have it, when McCaffrey was at 100%, during the first 2 weeks of play, he scored 20 and 22 points, respectively. So you can see how this could end up being the closest matchup of the week. Throughout the history of the league, these two have faced off seven times with Christian McMingle taking five of those games. However, in three games playing the host team, the Warriors have won two. However, however, Christian McMingle has outscored them by an average of 5 pts/gm, 123.3 to 118.3, in those three games. Confused? Me too. I think I'm just gonna flip a coin on this one.
COMMISH'S PICK: Golden Tate Warriors
LINE: Do Not Panic -25
Currently on a three-game losing streak, Do Not Panic heads back home to take on the not-so Badazz Bri. In their only home game this season, a week 3 one-point loss to the Golden Tate Warriors, Panic seemed to do everything right...except for play defense. They posted a score of 137, but allowed Josh Allen to throw at will, to the tune of 45 points. In the end, big games from Tom Brady, Peyton Barber, and Mike Williams just weren't enough to get it done. This time around, Aaron Rodgers comes to town and he's got a wealth of under-performing talent behind him. Seriously though, Bri has been terrible on the road this season. And at home, for that matter. They just can't seem to get on the board early and often. On the road, Bri has been outscored by an average of nearly 30 pts/gm. Could Badazz Bri's lineup actually perform to expectations? Sure. Could Panic's defense fail to hold them in check? Sure. Could Brady et al have a bad day? Sure. Just don't bet on it.
COMMISH'S PICK: Do Not Panic
LINE: Los Perros Locos -7
The fact that this is an odd numbered week may not be a good thing for Los Perros Locos. No, really. In weeks 2 and 4, Perros averaged 135.5 pts/gm. In weeks 1 and 3, they only averaged 76.5 pts/gm. Don't ask my what their issue is with prime numbers, but the data doesn't lie. What's more is that no team has a better record visiting Perros than the Thundabuddies. In eight previous games at The Puppy Mill, the Thundabuddies have come away with six wins and a 25-point average margin of victory. But while the Thundabuddies are leading the league with 123.5 pts/gm this season, they'll run into a Perros defense that has held their opponents to, a league-leading, 86 pts/gm over the first 4 weeks. I don't expect the Perros to be able to contain the Buddies as well as they did against their previous opponents. But, if they can score anything close to their average over the last three weeks, 122 points, they could find themselves in a good position to beat the highest scoring team in the league. And it looks like the bettors agree with me.
COMMISH'S PICK: Los Perros Locos
LINE: Jergoff Passout -17
So far this season, no team has played better defense in their own backyard than Chief Sticky Balls. To date, opposing teams are only averaging 76.5 pts/gm down in the Nether Region. But this game is on the road where the Balls have allowed opposing offenses to run wild, averaging an outrageous 130.5 pts/gm. So you can see why they'll have their work cut out for them during this visit to Shame Glaze Stadium. There's a reason that Jergoff Passout is a double-digit favorite to win. They're currently on a 3-game winning streak and averaging over 121 pts/gm compared to a Balls team that is averaging 111.3 pts/gm in that span. I might not be willing to give the points, but there's very little doubt in my mind that Passout will take advantage of this opportunity to move to 4-1.
COMMISH'S PICK: Jergoff Passout
LINE: Baby Got Dak - 24
No team is happier to be returning home this week than the Bounty Hunters. In two road games this season, they've surrendered an average of 141.5 pts/gm, more than any other team in the league. If you were to look at each team's performance over the past few weeks, you'd probably take note that Dak has won three games while the Hunters have only won one. But, if you dig a littler deeper into the data, you'd also find that the Hunters are actually averaging more, 118.7 pts/gm, than Dak's 115 pts/gm over those three weeks. This is why it's hard for me to understand the huge point spread. Yes, I realize that Dak is undefeated while the Bounty Hunters are sitting at 1-3. But as I look over their individual player matchups this week, I can assure you that this will be a much closer game than the line suggests. I'm still willing to give the slightest advantage to Dak, but there's no way I'm giving more than a touchdown. And even that is a stretch for me.
COMMISH'S PICK: Baby Got Dak
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