SAGEBRUSH CACTUS LEAGUE
LINE: NH Bounty Hunters -2
There are only a few things you need to know about this matchup. Baby Got Dak has scored over 100 points only just twice this season - the Bounty Hunters have yet to score below 100. In three home games this year, Dak is 1-2 and has been outscored by an average of 23.4 pts/gm. In their only road game, the Hunters defeated Badazz Bri by 30 points, 103-73. Lastly, Dak will be without their starting QB, Tagovailoa, this week because of a “back injury” that was re-aggrevated last week when he "slipped" on the field. There’s only on choice for me: take the Bounty Hunters and give the point.
COMMISH'S PICK: NH Bounty Hunters
LINE: Pork Chop Express -15
If you only looked at their week 1 scores, you’d expect both teams to be doing relatively well. Though they lost, the Chops scored over 140 points while You came away with a victory after scoring 132. However, it’s been down hill since then for both. Over the past two weeks, neither team has scored more than 100 points and, between them, they’re averaging only 83.75 pts/gm. After losing Javonte Williams for the season last week, You will roll out a receiver-heavy offense against a Chops defense that allowed over 150 points in their only road game this season. But I’m not convinced that will work since Hurts is best when the offense is focused on the run. With the Chops looking to avoid a fourth loss in just five weeks, I can see why so many are betting against You.
COMMISH'S PICK: Pork Chop Express
LINE: Golden Tate Warriors -1
Home has not been kind to the Golden Tate Warriors so far this season. They’ve lost both of their games in their own backyard and now they’re hosting a Kings team that is 4-1 in five visits to Baby Face Field. In fact, it’s surprising to me that the Kings are not favored when you consider they’ve averaged 134 pts/gm on the road and the Warriors have allowed 128.5 pts/gm at home. With a number of injuries and tough player matchups on both sides of the ball, I expect a dip in scoring for both teams this week. But as they say: defense wins championships and with the Bills D/ST making a return to the field, the Kings should come out on top.
COMMISH'S PICK: Consolation Kings
LINE: Do Not Panic -18
Two of the lowest scoring offenses in the league face off in what could be the lowest scoring game of the week. Averaging only 88.8 pts/gm, Badazz Bri will field a team with only one player currently ranked in the top 10 at their position…K, Younghoe Koo. That's fine if you're playing kickball. Fortunately, though, Do Not Panic is not exactly an offensive juggernaut when playing on the road. Scoring an average of 96 pts/gm as the away team this year, they’ll hope to get out to an early lead in Drink ‘Em If You Got ‘Em Stadium to neutralize the rowdy crowd. If they can do that, they could escape with the win. But if they can’t, and the game remains close when the fans are starting to feel the effects of their libations, look out. Logic suggests you should take Panic, but something tells me the largest underdog of the week will find a way to win.
COMMISH'S PICK: Badazz Bri
LINE: Thundabuddies -4
You’d have to go back to week 3 of the 2019 season to find the last time the Perros defeated Thundabuddies. It’s been a while. Fresh off their first win of the season, the dogs are hopeful they can keep that momentum rolling. But facing the only undefeated team in the league looks like a pretty heavy lift to me. In their two road games this season, the Perros are averaging only 63.5 pts/gm. That’s not going to get the job done against a Thundabuddies team that averages 110.5 pts/gm at home. Look, I liked what I saw out of the Perros last week. But when you consider they’re heading into Flash Gordon Field to take on a team that they’re 2-9 against all-time, there’s really no other choice. While Los Perros Locos might keep it close, take Thundabuddies in one of the higher scoring games of the week.
COMMISH'S PICK: Thundabuddies
LINE: Jergoff Passout -18
Sagebrush supremacy is on the line when Jergoff Passout heads down to the Nether Region to take on a Balls team looking get back to their early season form. Averaging only 85 pts/gm over the last two weeks, and with Jonathan Taylor out of the lineup, the Balls are surely sweating at the thought of trying to keep pace with a Passout team that scored a league-best 162 points last week. And if you have any reservations as to whether or not Passout will be motivated to win this week, consider they were drubbed in two regular season games against the Balls last year, 159-119 and 154-93, before being eliminated by them in the first round of the playoffs. Revenge is a dish best served cold and as exposed as the Balls are this week, my money is on Passout.
COMMISH'S PICK: Jergoff Passout
SCL SEGUNDO LEAGUE
LINE: We're on to Cleveland! -2
Just days after learning that they’ll be without Javonte Williams for the season, Jalenhouse Rock was also notified that they’ll be without another top RB, D’Andre Swift, this week. That doesn’t bode well when you’re trying to find your way back to winning against a Cleveland! team that hasn’t scored less than 104 points this season. Fortunately for Rock, they’re heading back to Graceland where they last scored 146 points in week 1. Moreover, to their benefit, Cleveland! hasn’t defended well on the road. Despite their 2-1 away record, Cleveland! is allowing 130.7 pts/gm to their hosts this season. Talk about a gracious guest. If Jalenhouse Rock can contain McCaffrey and Pierce, Hurts and the receiving corps should be able to come up with enough offense to pull off the upset.
COMMISH'S PICK: Jalenhouse Rock
LINE: BattleBornKid -6
For BattleBornKid, hosting this game at Silver State Stadium presents a significant advantage since they’ve been outscored by 52 pts/gm on the road this season. Putting them in an even better position, the Tots were cooked in their only away game so far this year, 143-86. However, a word of caution: do not assume BattleBornKid will walk away with this game. The Tots are a little salty after falling to Keenan and Kel-ce last week and they’re looking to bounce back. I fully expect the Tots will have no problem scoring 115 or more and, with a little luck, they could even come close to their season-best of 139 points. BattleBornKid, on the other hand, may not be able to keep up. Why? Because this is an odd numbered week. In even numbered weeks, Kid averages 139 pts/gm. But in odd numbered weeks, they only average 87 pts/gm. I’ll have the Tator Tots, please.
COMMISH'S PICK: Tallaassee Tator Tots
LINE: Najee Germany -13
I don’t know what to make of it either. After three weeks, everyone was talking about how solid TJONES35 looked while averaging over 134 pts/gm. And then, in week 4, they dropped an all-caps DUD, scoring only 64 points in a 78-point loss to Chubby Chase. It’s clear the odds makers are worried that week 4 wasn’t a fluke given that they’re a double-digit underdog this week. The one thing they have going for them though, is the fact that Najee Germany is not a team that travels well. In two games at Colonel Klink Stadion, Germany is 2-0 and has defeated their opponents by an average of 35.5 pts/gm. But if you send their invading forces off to battle, they’re 0-2 while losing by an average of 20 pts/gm. This game should finish closer than the spread suggests but, in the end, I like Najee Germany for the sieg.
COMMISH'S PICK: Najee Germany
LINE: The Real Slim Brady -20
The most points My Chubb’s Hardman have scored in a game this year is 113 points. The lowest score posted by The Real Slim Brady is 109. But that’s not the only indicator of why Hardman may not stand a chance in this contest. That they haven’t outscored The Real Slim Brady in any week this season is probably a better explanation of why no rational person would bet on Hardman. Well, that and the fact that in their only road game this season, My Chubb’s Hardman was jerked around pretty good by Jalenhouse Rock, losing 146-94. Make no bones about it, folks…this is a very lopsided contest on paper. And since, logically, we can’t say there’s a 0% chance that Hardman wins this game, I’d venture to say they have about a 1.3% chance. Good enough for me...I’ll take it.
COMMISH'S PICK: My Chubb's Hardman
LINE: Shiva Kaminis -9
Inexplicably, Shiva Kaminis is favored to win this contest. Um…we’re all aware they’ve lost 3 straight games and Kel-ce is coming off a 140-point outing in week 4, right? Can I also assume everyone knows that Kel-ce outscores Kaminis by an average of 10 pts/gm? In fact, the only time Kaminis has outscored Kel-ce this season was week 3 when they scored 109 compared to Kel-ce’s 108. Moreover, Kaminis is 0-2 on the road this season and they’re heading into the Aww, Here It Goes Dome to face a Kel-ce team that dismantled BattleBornKid, 145-93, there in week 1. So, what gives? If you’re asking me, the spread suggests Kaminis has yet to live up to their potential and bettors think they’re ready. It might also indicate that they believe Goff has overachieved in leading Kel-ce. I’m not normally one to dismiss such glaring facts, but I like to play it risky so I’ll go along with that rational and take Shiva Kaminis.
COMMISH'S PICK: Shiva Kaminis
LINE: Chubby Chase -2
There’s no hotter team in the league than the Ohio State Gunkeyes right now. Over the past two weeks, they’re 2-0 and they’ve defeated their opponents by an average score of 133.5 to 106. But this is not your average team rolling into town this week. Chubby Chase is coming into Leave Early For The Draft Stadium fresh off a stellar road win where they scored 142 points. Allowing an average of 112.5 pts/gm to visiting opponents, the Gunkeyes defense will need to be creative if they’re going to contain Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase. On the other side of the ball, I’m not sure Chubby Chase can do more than hope and pray Josh Allen doesn’t blow up. Their best bet may be to focus on the rest of the Gunkeyes lineup and keep the scoring to a minimum. I doubt Hockenson puts up 36 points again this week, but I could see players like Kamara and Cooks scoring enough to get the job done.
COMMISH'S PICK: Ohio State Gunkeyes
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