SAGEBRUSH CACTUS LEAGUE
LINE: Pork Chop Express -8
Through the first 2 weeks, the Los Perros Locos were 0-2 with an average score of 82.0 pts/gm and the Pork Chop Express were 2-0 with an average score of 116.0 pts/gm. After 5 weeks of play, the Perros are 2-3 and the Chops are 4-1. If those are the only data points you consider, you'd probably take the Chops. However, if you also consider the Perros have averaged 132.0 pts/gm over their last 3 compared to the Chop's average of 104.0 pts/gm over the same span, this matchup becomes a little more difficult to pick. And when you dust off your copy of the Sagebrush Cactus League History book and crack it open to learn the Perros are 6-4 all-time in Little China, you might be questioning whether you should take the underdog and the points. And that's where I'm at. Both teams should do well this week and exceed projections. But I've seen what dogs can do to a cut of meat.
COMMISH'S PICK: Los Perros Locos
LINE: Who Is You -2
If you're looking for some quality offensive production, you won't find it in this game. Last week, the Hunters scored only 74 points, which is 3 more than Who Is You scored. Apart from week 3, I can't explain how the Hunters have managed a winning record to this point. If you don't count the 137 points they tallied in that game, their average score per game is only 88 points. The same is true for Who Is You. In week 2, You demolished one of the best teams in the league, the Thundabuddies, 152-110. Excluding that quality performance, You averages just 89 pts/gm...hence, their 1-4 record. So, which under-performing team will win this Matchup of Mediocrity? To answer that question, you only need to know that in their 9 previous visits to What Are I Field, the NH Bounty Hunters are 3-6 and have been outscored by an average of 16.0 pts/gm.
COMMISH'S PICK: Who Is You
LINE: Jergoff Passout -14
Neither team has done much to impress me this season. However, they both won last week, so one of them will come out of this with their first 2-game winning streak of the year. The last time Passout visited Composure Coliseum was in week 10 of last year where they eeked out a 7-point win, 107-100. In that game, Saquon Barkley scored 27 points, but it was really Justin Jefferson who led the charge with a 30-point day. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Jefferson probably won't score that many points this week. And, I also don't see Barkley having a repeat either since I suspect the G-men will be playing from behind most of their game. To be fair, I also have pretty low expectations for what Do Not Panic might be able to accomplish in this game, but that still doesn't justify them as a 2 TD underdog. That's just silly. In fact, it's so ridiculous that I'm going to take Panic for the upset victory.
COMMISH'S PICK: Do Not Panic
LINE: Golden Tate Warriors -10
Some games are easier to predict than others. I'd categorize this one in the former, not the latter. In their rookie season, Watts has managed to fight their way to a 2-3 record after 5 weeks, but they're not exactly intimidating anyone with their 90.2 pts/gm average. The Warriors, on the other hand, have been patient with injuries and now look to have most of their stars available for this matchup. And did I mention they've averaged 116.8 pts/gm to this point? Beyond those insights, there's only one more thing you need to know: Digg-A-Watts has yet to outscore the Golden Tate Warriors in a single week this season. Do you really think it's going to happen this week? Sign me up for more of the same.
COMMISH'S PICK: Golden Tate Warriors
LINE: Consolation Kings -25
After an 0-5 start to the season with an average score of just 80.2 pts/gm, alcohol sales at The Boone's Farm Drunk Tank are breaking records. In fact, I've heard rumors that they're even selling post-game as a way to help fans forget what they just saw on the field. Like their fans, I'm cheering each week for Badazz Bri to earn their first win, but I'm struggling to hold onto hope. Surely they'll win a game, right? Right?!? Though they'll probably notch a win or two before the season ends, I don't think it will happen this week. Since their awful season opener where they scored just 64 points, the Consolation Kings have won 3 of 4 with an average score of 127.0 pts/gm - they're hot right now. Are they so hot that we'll see a repeat of their record-setting 233 points against Bri in week 5 of 2019? Probably not. Are they as good as they were when they scored 205 points against Bri in week 12 of 2020? Again, probably not. But they will score more than enough to cruise to an easy victory. Somebody get me a drink.
COMMISH'S PICK: Consolation Kings
LINE: Baby Got Dak -2
When you see a matchup between #1 and #2, there's a tendency to assume it will be a contest between two teams playing at the same level. Typically you'd be right, but this year is different. The Thundabuddies are certainly one of the better teams in the league to this point. Their lowest score of the season is 94 points, higher than any other team in the league, and their average weekly score is an impressive 128.2 pts/gm. Their roster is full of talent with 4 starters ranked in the top 5 at their position. Plus, they just activated Kupp off IR last week, so their offense should be even better. However, Baby Got Dak is playing at another level this year. The worst player in Dak's starting lineup is the Lions D/ST with a PRK of 11. You read that right; their worst player has a PRK of 11! That means their other 8 starters are all ranked in the top 10 at their positions, which is why Dak is undefeated and has scored more than any other team in the league - 135.4 pts/gm. On paper, Dak is clearly the better team. But every team loses once in a while and I'm not sure there's a team better equipped than the Thundabuddies to put a blemish on Dak's record.
COMMISH'S PICK: Thundabuddies
SCL SEGUNDO LEAGUE
LINE: Even
At first glance, this game has blowout written all over it. Last week, Get In D Carr scored just 79 points compared to Burrowito Bowl's 124...and that appears to be close to the norm. Through the first 5 weeks, Carr's average score is 99.4 pts/gm to Bowl's 112.8 pts/gm. Furthermore, Carr's highest score this season is 115 points - a total Burrowito Bowl has topped 60% of the time this season. But before you sell the Carr, consider their player's opportunities this week. KC's defense isn't special and we assume Wilson will be throwing a lot to keep up. Carr's RBs should perform well in favorable matchups, and their D/ST looks like a solid play too. On the flip side, I can see several Bowl players that might struggle this week suggesting their final score might come in less than projected. This is all to say that I think the line is spot-on in this game and I'm not sure you could go wrong with either pick. But I've worked up an appetite writing this analysis, so I think I'll take a Burrowito Bowl.
COMMISH'S PICK: Burrowito Bowl
LINE: Belichicks Hoodie -18
The matriarch will host round 1 of the mother-daughter grudge match this week. Who will win this fierce battle of family differences? Until last week, the trend line was looking good for Kaminis. Each week of the season saw them finish with a higher score than the previous. But that came to a halt when MaxxCasualties held them to just 64 points in week 5 - their lowest total yet. Their opponent, Belichicks Hoodie, has had an on-again-off-again start to their season and has struggled to string together a pair of quality outings. Considering they're coming off a 119-point game, the pattern suggests they might not score more than 100 this week. But not so fast. Over the last 3 weeks, the Kaminis defense has been porous, allowing 132.3 pts/gm including 153 points last week. That, plus the fact that they're 0-2 all-time against Hoodie, spells trouble for Kaminis. I like Hoodie's offense to find their rhythm and have another decent week where they should be able to finish with 125+ points and ground Kaminis for a week. Why? Because I said so, that's why!
COMMISH'S PICK: Belichicks Hoodie
LINE: Ohio State Gunkeyes -9
The Ohio State Gunkeyes are 2-0 all-time against Ridley's Parlays (formerly Keenan and Kel-ce) and, unfortunately for the Parlays, I don't see any reason to believe they won't be 3-0 by the end of this game. The Parlays have some bad bets up and down their roster with the exception of their WRs and, maybe, their RBs. The good news is that they just activated Kupp off IR last week, which should excite the crowd at DraftKings FanDuel Field at the Caesars Palace Sportsbook. The bad news is that it doesn't do much to address their weaknesses at other positions. I'll wager the Parlays have a good opportunity to score more than 100 points this week...something they have yet to do this season. But against a Gunkeyes team that is coming off their worst week of the season - only 75 points - with a chip on their shoulder, clear vision, and an average score of 124.0 pts/gm, I don't think it's a wise bet to take the Parlays.
COMMISH'S PICK: Ohio State Gunkeyes
LINE: Tallaassee Tator Tots -18
MaxxCasualties has been determined to prove all of the preseason haters wrong. They've won their last 3 games and they're 4-1 this season while averaging 122.0 pts/gm. But even good teams struggle once in a while and this looks like it might be that kind of week for the Casualties. With 1 starting RB on bye and another nursing a boo boo, their running game is thin which puts added pressure on their aerial assault. But, here's the problem: the Tots passing defense has been pretty good. If you don't count week 4, they've held opposing QBs to 14.5 pts/gm and TEs to 5.6 pts/gm. Though there is one vulnerability the Casualties could exploit: the WR position. The Tots have allowed 18.3 pts/gm to opposing WRs this season including 37.3 to AJ Brown in week 4, 34.8 to Davante Adams in week 3, and 41.7 to Tyreek Hill in week 1. Can Stefon Diggs or Tank Dell join that list this week? Maybe. But unless both of them score 30+, I can't see the Casualties surviving this contest.
COMMISH'S PICK: Tallaassee Tator Tots
LINE: Jalenhouse Rock -10
The Gotham Rogues have been one of the busier teams in the Segundo League, working the waiver wire and making trades to try to improve. After last week, I'm not sure how much it has worked...they scored only 63 points and took their 3rd loss. As for Jalenhouse Rock, they've managed to win their last two games while averaging 144.0 pts/gm in those contests. Needless to say, I don't blame you if you've already submitted your ticket with Jalenhouse Rock winning this game. However, if you dug deeper into the rosters and player matchups for both teams this week, you probably saw the same thing that I saw...oh, who am I kidding? I didn't see anything. There's no logic in picking the Rogues - Jalenhouse has the better team. But I've picked the Rogues to lose in 4 of 5 weeks and it's getting old. For absolutely no reason whatsoever, I'm taking the Gotham Rogues and the points this week. I hope it doesn't cost me a perfect week.
COMMISH'S PICK: Gotham Rogues
LINE: TJONES35 -16
What better way to follow up a record-setting performance than to go on a road trip to face one of the better teams in the league. The Runningbacks looked great last week, but this week's opponent, TJONES35, will surely put up a better fight. The last time the Runningbacks visited ALL CAPS ARENA, in week 5 of last season, they left on crutches after suffering a 143-119 defeat. And I won't even mention the fact that was their best defensive effort against TJONES last season; allowing 154 points in their other meeting. The forecast for this week suggests TJONES should have no problem lighting up the scoreboard again, which raises the question: do the Disgruntled Runningbacks have enough offense left in the tank after last week? Look, the Runningbacks certainly won't score 200 points again, but I do think they'll show up - somewhere in the neighborhood of 120-125 points. The first half of this game should be close, but once TJONES35's fans get all of the lowercase letters out of their system, things will get loud and the hometown energy should be enough to lift TJONES over the Runningbacks for the 3rd time in 3 tries.
COMMISH'S PICK: TJONES35
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