LINE: Baby Got Dak -6
If there is one team that enjoys playing at Baby Got Dak's home field, other than themselves, it is Hit Em With The Hein!!!. Of the 9 games they played there, Hein!!! has won 7 of them for a .777 winning percentage. And it's not like they're close games, either. In those 9 games, Hein!!! averages 109.11 points per game to Dak's 88.22. Coincidentally, Hein!!! is averaging 112 points through 5 games this season while Dak is averaging 88.2. See any similarities? Sitting at 1-4, Dak desperately needs a win this week to keep any hopes of a playoff berth alive. And although I don't expect Hein!!! to come close to the 156-point game they had last week, they do have some very favorable player matchups. I can't think of a single reason why Hein!!! shouldn't win this game, so the choice for me is simple.
COMMISH'S PICK: Baby Got Dak
LINE: NH Bounty Hunters -4
The NH Bounty Hunters haven't topped 100 pts since week 1. I have a feeling that is about to change. So, what will they score this week? 204? 238? 862? Who knows, but I'm sure they're drooling at the opportunity to take their shot at Badazz Bri given the good fortune of teams that have played them this season. Over the past 3 weeks, Bounty Hunters have been the lowest scoring team in the league, averaging a paltry 78.67 points per game. There is one little thing, however, that bothers me: the Bounty Hunters are 1-4 against Badazz Bri all-time. History is not on their side and both of these teams look like they have the potential to put up some points this week. They each have a variety of favorable player matchups throughout their lineups and I think this contest ends as one of the higher scoring games this week. Assuming Bri can hold the Hunters to less than 200 points, the line looks to be spot on...but it's the wrong team.
COMMISH'S PICK: Badazz Bri
LINE: Blue Ribbon -23
Los Perros Locos were all bark and no bite last week in leaving several winning options sitting on their bench and failing to reach 100 points. Mike Evans' bagel didn't help either. They'll need to get it together this week to compete with a Blue Ribbon team that they've only outscored once this season. And, no, it wasn't in week 3. In their 4 previous contests, Ribbon hasn't had any trouble taming the dogs on their way to a 3-1 record against them. I'm not certain this game should be any different. Blue Ribbon has the better talent up and down their lineup and they're averaging almost 21 more points per week than Perros. If you still need convincing that Ribbon should win this game, consider they're averaging over 142 points in the past 3 weeks. However, the last time I selected Blue Ribbon as a Stone Cold Lead Pipe Lock of the Week, they let me down. I'm not falling for that trickery again. You know what they say: "Fool me once, shame on...shame on you. Fool me - you can't get fooled again".
COMMISH'S PICK: Los Perros Locos
LINE: Pick
Chief Sticky Balls will have their hands full this week. No, not like that - I meant in their matchup against Pork Chop Express. The Chops have been on a roll lately, winning their past 3 games, averaging 115.33 per week. They look every bit like a serious playoff contender. Conversely, Sticky Balls have lost their last 3 games by an average of 35 points, including a 50-point loss in the last inter-league game. But before you scratch off the Balls, there are some things I like about them in this match. To begin with, they have some really talented players like Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Sterling Shepard, and Stephen Gostkowski. Wait, what? Oh, they're not playing this week? How about the fact that 3 of their player's last names end in "man" - Freeman, Hardman, and Coleman. That doesn't matter either? Hmmm...well, Sticky Balls has 3 starters that are in the top 50 in fantasy this season. Oh, I see. I didn't realize Pork Chops had 4. Nevermind.
COMMISH'S PICK: Pork Chop Express
LINE: Thundabuddies -9
We'll call this battle of big-screen buddy movies The Hollywood Bowl. While we're all aware - thanks to the subtle reminders on GroupMe - of RamRod's big game last week, don't forget that Thundabuddies scored 140 points. When you graph each teams weekly scores, Thundabuddies' looks like a set of soft, rolling hills where RamRod's looks more like the letter L fell over backwards. Regardless, RamRod has had some success when playing at Thundabuddies in the past. In 4 games at Flash Gordon Field, RamRod is 3-1 while averaging 108 points per game. Compare that to the Thundabuddies average home score of 92.75 against RamRod and you can see why Thundabuddies might be a little anxious. But before you break out the maple syrup, consider the last time that a team scored 200 points in a week, they followed up with 88 in the next. So unless the shenanigans get out of hand again, I'm taking Thundabuddies.
COMMISH'S PICK: Thundabuddies
LINE: Who Is You -18
The good folks over at ESPN are off their medication again. Anyone willing to take Who Is You and give me the points? Anyone? Not you, You - I'm speaking to everyone else. I'll tell you why you're not taking that bet. If you've studied your league history - and I know you have - you'd see that these two teams are pretty evenly matched. In the 3 games they've played in the past, Flash Dem TD's averages 126.67 points to You's 122.33. Moreover, they're practically indiscernible over the past 3 weeks. They've each won 2 of their last 3, including their lone inter-league matchup, and their average scores are only separated by 3 tenths of a point; TD's averages 110.67, Who Is You averages 110.33. This game looks more like a pick to me. If I wasn't required to pick a winner, I'd likely just take the over and call it a day. But rules is rules, so I'm taking Who Is You...and don't expect me to give you more than a point.
COMMISH'S PICK: Who Is You
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