LINE: Pick
There are a lot of question marks surrounding Christian McMingle this week. No, really. Four of their starters are listed as "questionable" right now, including Christian McCaffrey and Tyreek Hill. After a tough loss in home-opener against Golden Tate Warriors last week, McMingle is happy to host a Panic team that is only 1-2 on the road this season and surrenders plenty of points when playing on the road. In their three away games, Do Not Panic owns the second highest point differential in the league having been outscored by 88 points, or 102.3 to 131.7 pts/gm. Overall, and this may come as a surprise, Panic has allowed more points that any other team in the league this season, 130.6 pts/gm. Yes, you read that right. Even Badazz Bri has allowed fewer points. The bettors seem to believe this will be a close game. And it might be. But I'm going with McMingle to continue producing and come away with their first home win of the season.
COMMISH'S PICK: Christian McMingle
LINE: Baby Got Dak -9
After losing one of their own this week, the Perros head into this game with heavy hearts and a motivation to win one for ol' "Crazy" Maisy. In 12 previous visits to the Puppy Mill, Baby Got Dak has only been able to walk away the victor four times, including last season when they defeated Los Perros by 30 points, 117-87. And, in their three road trips this season, Dak has been outscored 115.3 to 126. To make matters worse for Dak, they'll be facing a Perros defense that has held their opponents to an average of only 91 points in their house. The one thing that Dak does have in their favor is that they've outscored the Perros in four of five weeks this season, but they've also seen a big decline in their scoring output. Through the first 2 weeks, Dak was averaging over 135 pt/gm, but that number has dwindled to just 105.3 pts/gm over the last three weeks. Look, Dak might normally be the better team, but if you think I'm going to pick against a team who's dog just died, you're crazy.
COMMISH'S PICK: Los Perros Locos
LINE: Chief Sticky Balls -28
There are very good reasons this game features the largest point spread for the week. After five weeks of play, Badazz Bri has been outscored by opponents 91.4 to 128.6 pts/gm, on average. And heading down to the Nether Region where they're 1-3 all-time and the Balls' stingy defense has only allowed, a league-best, 76.5 pts/gm doesn't help their case either. If you're going to make an argument on behalf of Bri, your primary defense would be the fact that they actually perform better on the road than at home. In their four away games this season, Bri has averaged 96.3 pts/gm compared to a singular home game where they only mustered 72 points. Certainly not a large enough data set to draw conclusions, but it's all you really have. Unfortunately, I don't see this as the week that Bri gets that elusive first win.
COMMISH'S PICK: Chief Sticky Balls
LINE: NH Bounty Hunters -17
The Pork Chop Express have played outstanding ball on the road this season. As the visiting team, they've held their opponent to only 58 pts/gm. What? Oh, yes, I said "opponent" because they've only played one game on the road so far. But still, that's impressive. This time they'll take on a more formidable opponent in the Bounty Hunters who've averaged 139.3 pts/gm at home this season. And, yes, they've played more than one home game. Three to be exact. And, let's not forget that the Hunters just put up 172 at home last week against the 1st place team in the Cactus division, Baby Got Dak. But here's the catch: the Chops have a 7-1 all-time record when playing in the Hunters' backyard. And they win by an average of almost 25 points. I realize the Hunters are loaded with talent and the Chops will be without Russell Wilson. But Joe Burrow is a pretty solid backup plan and they've got history on their side. Being a history buff, myself, I'm rolling with the Pork Chop Express.
COMMISH'S PICK: Pork Chop Express
LINE: Golden Tate Warriors -23
In any other week, this would be the Matchup Of The Week but between injuries and the first bye week of season, this contest looks as lopsided as any. The Golden Tate Warriors have won their last 4 games and they're coming off their season-high of 159 points last week. And it looks even worse for Jergoff Passout when you consider they'll be without Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara (15.8 pts/gm), and Cordarrelle Patterson (16.2 pts/gm) this week. It's not easy to replace that level of production, but they'll lean on Melvin Gordan and Devontae Booker to carry the load. On the positive side of the balance sheet, Jergoff Passout has outscored Golden Tate in three of five weeks this season and Tate will be without Deebo Samuel (18.2 pts/gm) due to the bye. All things considered though, I just don't see how Passout's defense will be able to slow Josh Allen and company enough to give their handicapped offense an opportunity to win.
COMMISH'S PICK: Golden Tate Warriors
LINE: Who Is You -14
Some of you may have forgotten about what happened between these two teams last season, but I guarantee Thundabuddies hasn't. In the first round of the playoffs last year, Who Is You knocked off the Buddies, 91-71, on their way to taking the title. In 10 games at Flash Gordon Field, Who Is You has only been able to beat the Buddies three times while losing by an average of more than 10 points. And You hasn't been great on the road, in general, this season either with a 1-1 record and sitting on the short end of a 112.5 to 116.5 average game score. After winning their first 3 games of the season, Who Is You has lost their last 2 in a row as well as 1st place in the Cactus division. But a chance to jump back into the lead sits just past a Thundabuddies team that is missing several players on bye as well as a few that are questionable to play. Who Is You is playing at full strength this week and I'm just not sure the Buddies will have enough firepower to keep up with the scoring. If Jalen Hurts has a big day and Kupp returns to early-season form, they could possibly do it. And since I like a good revenge story, I'm willing to take that risk.
COMMISH'S PICK: Thundabuddies
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