SAGEBRUSH CACTUS LEAGUE
LINE: Thundabuddies -4
Were it not for the bye week, I probably wouldn’t even bother writing an analysis for this matchup. However, with two starting RBs out, the Thundabuddies actually look vulnerable for the first time this season. And while the Buddies are missing key players, Who Is You will be taking the field without Davante Adams this week. You’d need to go back to week 3 of the 2020 season to see the last time the Buddies beat You and, worse, week 5 of the 2019 season to find the last time they beat them at I Are They Stadium. But this Buddies team has been stellar in two road wins this season, defeating teams 113.5 to 86, on average. I’m not sure I would expect the same result here. Who Is You has several players that could put up some quality numbers if things go right. It’s not very often you can pick against an undefeated team that is favored without looking like you’re completely out of your mind.
COMMISH'S PICK: Thundabuddies
LINE: NH Bounty Hunters -6
The Bounty Hunters are doing their best to avoid repeating the mistake they made last year. Last season, they crawled out of the gate to a 2-3 start but battled back late in the season before barely missing the playoffs in the final week. This year, though, the Hunters are 4-1 and look like a team destined for the post-season. If there’s one game they’ve had circled on their calendar, it’s this one. Their opponent this week, the Chops, defeated them twice last season and were the team that beat them out of that coveted 3rd seed playoff spot in the Cactus division. Additionally, the Chops have been a thorn in the Hunter’s side throughout the years defeating them in 11 of 14 contests. History suggests you should take Pork Chop Express, but vengeance can be a powerful motivator. In what should be the highest scoring game of the week, put me down for the Bounty Hunters.
COMMISH'S PICK: NH Bounty Hunters
LINE: Chief Sticky Balls -18
The Hallmark Channel is running episodes of The Golden Girls all morning on Sunday followed by Romance to the Rescue and Love Strikes Twice which begin around the same time as this contest. Watching any of those are likely to be more entertaining than following this game. Badazz Bri is 0-2 at home this season which may come as a surprise to some until you notice they only score an average of 66 pts/gm. Perhaps their players need to stay out of the stands at Drink ‘Em If You Got ‘Em Stadium. With a talented roster slowly getting better each week, the Balls should have no problem taking care of Bri. Place your bet before you get to the stadium and start making bad decisions after tailgating all morning.
COMMISH'S PICK: Chief Sticky Balls
LINE: Los Perros Locos -17
If you’re heading out of town this weekend, there aren’t many places more cordial to your visit than I’m Hurt Again Field where Baby Got Dak has been very generous to opponents. In four games this year, they're allowing 121 pts/gm and a 1-3 record. But there’s one small problem: dogs don’t travel well. In three road contests this season, the Perros boast an 0-3 record while losing 121.3 to 76.7, on average. Though the Perros have played well as of late, they still only have one win to show for it. Perhaps a game against a Dak team that is weakened at the moment - 5 players on bye and injuries to crucial players - is just what they need. I haven’t said it very often this season but go ahead and take the Perros for the win.
COMMISH'S PICK: Los Perros Locos
LINE: Jergoff Passout -9
This is a matchup I’ve been looking forward to for the past few weeks. Jergoff Passout is the league leader in scoring with an average of 130 pts/gm. If there’s a team that can compete with that, it would have to be the Warriors who are the second highest scoring team in the league with 121.4 pts/gm. To win, the Warriors will need to do what only two other teams have done this season: hold Passout below 120 points. Why? Because I’m 100% certain the Warriors will score somewhere between 120 to 124 points. “Commish, that seems like a pretty precise range…are you sure?” Absolutely. The Warriors have scored within that range in every game this year and I have no reason to think they won’t do so again. It will be a close race to the finish, but I’ll take Passout to score 125 for the win.
COMMISH'S PICK: Jergoff Passout
LINE: Consolation Kings -14
Did I pick this contest for the Matchup of the Week because neither team has been featured in one yet? Mostly. But I also believe this game will be a much closer matchup than the line suggests. The Consolation Kings are heading into Keep Calm Stadium with a banged up crew which bodes well for a Panic team that has only allowed 87 pts/gm at home this season. To add to their problems, the Kings' D/ST unit is facing one of the best offenses in the game this week which could limit their ability to score – but DO NOT sit them! On the Panic side of the ball, I can see a few opportunities that could pan out well, namely Brady, Cook, and Olave. In two previous attempts, Panic has yet to defeat the Kings including a 46-point loss at home last season. If the Kings’ medical staff can get these players ready for the game, they may be able to sneak out of there with the win. But, if not…
COMMISH'S PICK: Do Not Panic
SCL SEGUNDO LEAGUE
LINE: Tallaassee Tator Tots -6
My Chubb’s Hardman will take to the field this weekend and attempt to accomplish something they haven’t done yet: win a game on the road. To say they’ve been atrocious as the visiting team might be an understatement, having been outscored by an average of 39.5 pts/gm. And now they’re heading into Ketchup Coliseum without Davante Adams to take on a Tator Tots team that is averaging 126.3 pts/gm since totaling only 86 points in their season opener. It’s also worth noting the Tots have outscored Hardman in 4 of 5 weeks this year. There’s no need to beat around the bush. My Chubb’s Hardman is certainly capable of scoring 110+ points this week. And that should leave them about 15-20 points shy of where they would need to be to get the victory.
COMMISH'S PICK: Tallaassee Tator Tots
LINE: BattleBornKid -1
Something’s gotta give. Unless, of course, they end in a tie which would be incredibly impressive since Sleeper measures scores to the hundredths of a point. Why do I say that? Because their win/loss rates are identical. They each lose in odd numbered weeks and win in even numbered weeks. As the spread would indicate, I expect we’ll see a close battle though neither are poised to break any scoring records. If you’re looking to understand who has the edge, consider the fact that Najee Germany is winless on the road this year. Losing all three of their away games by an average of 7.1 pts/gm suggests they’ll keep pace with BattleBornKid for most of the match...but Justin Herbert will probably work his magic on Monday night and close it out.
COMMISH'S PICK: BattleBornKid
LINE: Ohio State Gunkeyes -26
Over the past few weeks, the Gunkeyes are 2-1 and they’re averaging almost 133 pts/gm which is why I’m not holding out much hope for Kaminis in this contest. On the road this season, Shiva Kaminis has done well, offensively speaking, scoring 121.3 pts/gm. Like the Detroit Lions, Kaminis can score but their defense has been far too generous resulting in two losses by an average margin of 22 pts/gm. Their biggest problem this week will be keeping the ball out of Josh Allen’s hands. Without Derrick Henry in their lineup, that could be difficult since Shiva Kaminis doesn’t have a lot of other options to help control the game tempo. They could get lucky and see some unexpected player have a big day but, short of that, I think the Gunkeyes will see their way to a clear victory.
COMMISH'S PICK: Ohio State Gunkeyes
LINE: Keenan and Kel-ce -4
As of this writing, Kel-ce still hasn’t listed their starting QB to replace Goff who is out on bye. Maybe they plan to roll out a Wildcat look and hope to catch Jalenhouse Rock off guard. There are some good reasons to choose Kel-ce in this matchup. Saquon Barkley has been outstanding and is complimented by fellow RBs, Sanders and Harris, who could put up respectable numbers any day of the week. And, of course, we can’t forget about their namesake, Travis Kelce, who reminds everyone each week why he is consistently the #1 TE in the game. But Kelce’s tough matchup should keep him limited allowing Jalenhouse Rock to stay in this game. If they’re going to win, Rock will need to see some quality production from Pittman. If Pittman returns to his week 1 form, they’ll win and, playing against Jacksonville, that’s a bet I’m willing to make.
COMMISH'S PICK: Jalenhouse Rock
LINE: We're on to Cleveland! -5
There isn’t a hotter team in Segundo than Chubby Chase right now. Over their last three games, they’re averaging a league-best 133.67 pts/gm, scoring 142 and 151 over their last two. What’s more impressive is that they’ve done that while Ja’Marr Chase has been performing at a level far worse than expected. So far this season, Cleveland! is 3-1 on the road and they’re one of the best scoring teams away from home, averaging 124.3 pts/gm. That is to say that I would normally agree with the odds makers on this game. But, hampered by the bye week, I’m not sure Cleveland! has enough firepower throughout the rest of their roster to keep up with a Chase team that has the potential for another 140+ game. Look for Chubby Chase to take the game and make further gains in the Power Rankings.
COMMISH'S PICK: Chubby Chase
LINE: The Real Slim Brady -9
A big reason for their success this season has been Slim Brady’s defense. While their offense is #2 in the league, their defense is good for third best, allowing 113.8 pts/gm. But TJONES35 can be just as tough to score against, allowing 116.6 pts/gm…unless they’re at home. In three games at ALL CAPS COLISEUM, TJONES has surrendered 135.7 pts/gm to opposing offenses and their first order of business will be to figure out how to slow down a Brady team that looks poised for a big game. Slim Brady should see solid production from their usual suspects - Mixon, Diggs, and Williams – but what might be the difference maker is the 49ers D/ST. Facing the Falcons, that D/ST could put up 30+ points which will be difficult to counter. While TJONES will put up a good fight, I have a hard time betting against a Slim Brady team that is at, or near, the league lead in almost every category.
COMMISH'S PICK: The Real Slim Brady
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