LINE: Christian McMingle -15
Sitting at 3-3, both teams are caught in a three-way tie with Jergoff Passout for 2nd place in the Sagebrush division. In their last meeting, Justin Herbert scored 37 points and Chris Carson provided another 15 for the Balls as they went on to defeat McMingle by 54 points. This time around, though, Herbert is on bye and Carson is on IR. If you're gonna take a swing at the Balls, this is the week to do it. In addition to the aforementioned, Chief Sticky Balls is missing three other starters due to the bye week. On the McMingle side of the field, things are looking pretty good. Although they'll be without Dak Prescott, they're likely getting Gronk back just in time to retake the starting role from Dawson Knox who's not only on a bye, but also injured. In a typical week, this could easily be a Matchup Of The Week. But the normally hardy Balls are pretty beat up at the moment and they're headed into Harmony field where they've been pretty blue. In five games as the visiting team, they only average 83.2 pts/gm against McMingle. Plus, Christian McMingle is rolling out Matty Ice and we all know that revenge is a dish best served cold.
COMMISH'S PICK: Christian McMingle
LINE: Thundabuddies -14
Grab you clicker, settle into the parlor, and tune in for another round of the Chowdah Bowl. With the all-time series between these two tied up at 7-7, the winner of this game will own the bragging rights for the eastern wing of the league. In week 3, the Bounty Hunters left just enough scoring on the bench and allowed the Thundabuddies to slip away with a 4-point victory, 114 to 110. In that game, Jalen Hurts outscored Lamar Jackson 24 to 17 to give the Buddies the boost they needed. Interestingly, in round 2 of Jackson versus Hurts, both are projected to score in the 24 to 25-point range. And with no Keenan Allen or James Robinson available this week, the Bounty Hunters will be looking for a much better outing from Jackson. In 4 out of 6 weeks this season, the Hunters have been outscored by a Thundabuddies team that hasn't scored less than 105 points this season. But the Hunters have been right out straight on the waiver wire finding talent to fill the gaps in their lineup and I think they'll put up a good fight. Kinda like a quill pig would. And if the Thundabuddies get too gawmy, they could get pricked.
COMMISH'S PICK: NH Bounty Hunters
LINE: Jergoff Passout -21
After collecting their first win of the season last week, I imagine Badazz Bri is feeling pretty good. But they've got a serious uphill battle ahead if they're going to snag win number two. For starters, Bri is heading back home to the Drink 'Em If You Got 'Em dome where you'd normally expect good things to happen. However, the last time they played host, to Christian McMingle, the were blown out by 88 points in a crushing 160-72 loss. And while they played better against Jergoff Passout a couple of weeks later, they still lost by 41 points, 137-96. On the season, Jergoff Passout is 2-0 on the road and their lowest score, overall, is the highest in the league at 108. That's only 12 points less that Bri's highest score of the season. In fact, Passout has outscored Badazz Bri in five of the six weeks we've played. And in two weeks ago when Bri did, in fact, outscore Jergoff Passout, it was by a single point, 120 to 119. Maybe you're cheering for Badazz Bri to pull off the upset but, when it comes to placing your bet, you have to put personal wishes aside. Take Passout and collect your winnings on Tuesday.
COMMISH'S PICK: Jergoff Passout
LINE: Baby Got Dak -16
This rig has been rolling lately but they may have just hit a road closure. Between injuries and the bye week, the Pork Chops will have a very difficult time keeping with their average of 137 pts/gm over the past two weeks. Already without their Chubb & Hunt backfield and Russell Wilson due to injury, the Chops will also be without Thielen (bye week) and Goedert (injured). This is a banged up unit. But if there's hope to be found, it's in the fact that they usually play Dak tough on the road. In three previous games at Dak's house, the Chops are 1-2 but the average score of those games was 97-93. These meetings are hard fought battles between two old friends turned foes. Plus, the Chops are playing well on the road this season with a 2-0 record while holding opponents to an average of only 80 pts/gm. For Dak, this game is crucial to righting their ship. They've lost two straight, both on the road, and they're at risk of losing first place in the Cactus division if they lose this matchup. But heading home where they're 2-0 on the season and averaging 27 pts/gm more than their competition is just what the doctor ordered. Take Dak to derail the Pork Chop Express this week in a close game.
COMMISH'S PICK: Baby Got Dak
LINE: Who Is You -6
This being an odd numbered week does not bode well for Los Perros Locos. I've mentioned this before, but it's worth repeating: in even numbered weeks, the Perros average 132.7 pts/gm compared to only 77.7 pts/gm in odd numbered weeks. That's a 55 point swing for you math majors. But if there's any place the Perros would rather play than at home, it's at Where Are Me stadium where they're 13-4 all-time. In their first road game of the season, the dogs are looking to avenge a 4-point loss to Who Is You a few weeks ago in a game where they held You's receiving corps of CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, and Allen Robinson II to just 8 combined points. This will be a true test for the Perros league-leading defense that allows only 96.5 pts/gm. Fortunately for Los Perros, that task might be made a little easier against a Who Is You team that leads the SCL in points scored, with an average of 121.5 pts/gm, but will be without Lamb, Ekeler, Amari Cooper, and others this week. The big question is whether or not the Perros can score enough on the offensive side of the ball.
COMMISH'S PICK: Los Perros Locos
LINE: Do Not Panic -17
You're probably asking yourself how this game ended up as my pick for the MOTW. I get it. The Golden Tate Warriors are 5-1 and sitting atop the Sagebrush Division while Do Not Panic is 2-4 and desperately trying to figure out how to get back into the playoff picture. The Warriors are 4-0 versus divisional opponents. And, they're heading back home for the first time this season where they'll battle a Panic team that is 1-3 on the road and averaging 27.7 pts/gm less than their opponents. But, here are a few things to consider. First, in their week 3 contest, Do Not Panic nearly knocked off a Warriors team that was running at full strength, losing 137 - 138. Secondly, the Warriors are not going to be firing on all cylinders this time around. Not by a long shot. Thanks to the bye week from hell, the Warriors will be without Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Najee Harris, Emmanuel Sanders, and the Cowboys D/ST. That's 72 points of week 3 production that they'll be missing this time around. And even though Do Not Panic will not have Mike Williams this week, the rest of their lineup is looking at some very favorable matchups. The Warriors are certainly having a great season and they'll put up a good fight this week, but I think Panic will capitalize on a great opportunity.
COMMISH'S PICK: Do Not Panic
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