SAGEBRUSH CACTUS LEAGUE
LINE: Chief Sticky Balls -28
The Balls have been sagging quite a bit since beginning the season 2-0 with an average score of 134.5 pts/gm. Over the past four weeks, Chief Sticky Balls are 1-3 and their average score has fallen to just 85.5 pts/gm. That’s quite the drop. But things may perk up for the Balls who invite a struggling Consolation Kings team down to the Nether Region this week where they’ve defeated the Kings in five of seven contests. Despite scoring only 80 points last week, the Kings were able to notch a victory - their first in four weeks. It’s worth noting the Balls are 2-0 at home this season and they’re defeating opponents by an average of 20 pts/gm. I’m sure the Consolation Kings would like to stick it to their ex, Christian McCaffrey, but they’ll likely come up short.
COMMISH'S PICK: Chief Sticky Balls
LINE: Baby Got Dak -9
I’m having a hard time with the spread for this game. This one is a coin toss if you ask me. Over the past five weeks, these teams are very similar in their scoring with Dak averaging 97.8 pts/gm and the Chops averaging 100.0 pts/gm. However, the Chops have come out of that stretch with three wins whereas Baby Got Dak only has one to show for their efforts. Chalk that up to lucky scheduling I guess. Historically, they’re an even split as well; 8-8 against each other all-time. And since this game is being held down in Little China, where the Chops only outscore Dak by an average of 0.67 pts/gm, I can only assume the bettors believe the return of Tua will provide a much-needed boost to Baby Got Dak. I don’t disagree. Dak is desperate to end their three game losing streak, but I wouldn’t give more than a FG. This one is gonna be close.
COMMISH'S PICK: Baby Got Dak
LINE: Golden Tate Warriors -22
Do Not Panic have never beaten the Warriors, although they came close, losing 138-137, the last time they hosted them at Keep Calm Coliseum. If you only looked at each team’s record this season, you might believe Panic has a chance to notch their first-ever win against the Warriors this week. Don’t be fooled. Last week the Warriors tallied their lowest score of the season, 103 points - a score Do Not Panic has reached only once. Moreover, Panic has not outscored the Warriors in any week this season. Do you really think they're going to do so this week? Twenty-two points is a lot to give, but it becomes much more palatable when you consider the Warriors outscore Panic by an average of 24.7 pts/gm. Take the Warriors as one leg of your parlay ticket.
COMMISH'S PICK: Golden Tate Warriors
LINE: Los Perros Locos -17
In six trips to the Puppy Mill, Who Is You has only lost once. You could say they’re right at home in the Perros backyard. On the season, You looks to be the better team averaging 110 pts/gm to the Perros 91.5 pts/gm. However, if you narrowed it down to just the last three weeks, things appear to be very even with both teams averaging 113 pts/gm. The dogs have the very good fortune of hosting a You team that is without Jalen Hurts, Gabe Davis, and Miles Sanders which is probably why they’re favored. Well, that and this is somewhat of a must-win situation for them. And you know what they say about a cornered dog.
COMMISH'S PICK: Los Perros Locos
LINE: Jergoff Passout -6
There’s no hotter team in the Sagebrush Cactus league over the last three weeks than Jergoff Passout. They’ve won three straight with an average score of 135.7 pts/gm. The second highest scoring team over that span averages 114.7 pts/gm. They have clearly earned their #1 spot in the Power Rankings. And now they’ll square off against Badazz Bri who is dead last in those rankings and whose highest score this season is 125. Worse, if you were to factor out that game, their average score this season is only 73.4 pts/gm. Folks, by every measurable statistic, Badazz Bri doesn’t stand a chance in this contest. But what can I say? I’m a sucker for a huge underdog.
COMMISH'S PICK: Badazz Bri
LINE: NH Bounty Hunters -18
Do you remember week 1 of the 2013 season when these two squared off? It was a game for the record books with the Bounty Hunters defeating the Buddies 186-180. I’m not sure we’ll see that level of scoring this time around but they may still score enough to make this the game of the week. If you’re going to take on a Thundabuddies team coming off their first loss and looking to bounce back, this is it. Without Diggs and Kupp in their lineup, I don’t see the Buddies totaling more than 110 points which is still much better than last week’s 73. To beat the Hunters, the Buddies will need the crowd at Flash Gordon Field to get behind them and help slow down the Hunters’ offense. Last week, the Hunters scored only 88 points and I’m sure the coaching staff has been reminding them of that at practice all week. With a possible tie for first place in the Cactus division on the line, expect the Hunters' offense to play better and steal a crucial victory on the road.
COMMISH'S PICK: NH Bounty Hunters
SCL SEGUNDO LEAGUE
LINE: Najee Germany -5
No Diggs, no problem. In week 4, Diggs posted his lowest score of the season (7 pts) but that didn’t stop The Real Slim Brady from scoring their second highest total of the season, 136 points. The lowest score Slim Brady has tallied this season is 109 points which is significant because it happens to be 3 points more than Najee Germany’s average score of 106 pts/gm. To be fair, Germany has scored more than 109 points three times this season so, since we’ve played six weeks, you could argue they have about a 50/50 shot this week. But – here’s the kicker – Najee Germany only wins on even-numbered weeks. Look it up. Since this is week 7, I’ll put my money on the #1 team in Segundo.
COMMISH'S PICK: The Real Slim Brady
LINE: Chubby Chase -7
Facing a Jefferson-less Chubby Chase team would normally be in your favor. But not when you must do so without Cooper Kupp. Over the past three weeks, Chubby Chase is the highest scoring team in the Segundo league with an average score of 135.3 pts/wk. For the sake of comparison, that’s a total Shiva Kaminis has yet to hit. Coming off their worst game of the season last week, Kaminis will need their defense to step up and slow down Chase’s potent offense. And to do so, they’ll need to study up on the game footage from week 2 when Najee Germany held Chubby Chase to only 80 points. In the end, I think Chase scores well below their season average of 122.8 pts/gm but they should still have no problem beating a Kaminis team that might not score more than 90 points this week.
COMMISH'S PICK: Chubby Chase
LINE: BattleBornKid -13
If you’re wondering why My Chubb’s Hardman is nearly a two-touchdown underdog to a 2-4 BattleBornKid team, look no further than the fact that Hardman back-to-back weeks of scoring less than 85 points. Fortunately for them, though, BattleBornKid is coming off their worst week of the season – just 75 points – and they were slaughtered, 145-93, in their only other road game this season. To be sure, Kid is going to find plenty of production from their WRs and QB but they’ll fall shy of projections in their running game. And that should leave them susceptible against a Hardman roster that I expect will total their highest score of the season this week.
COMMISH'S PICK: My Chubb's Hardman
LINE: Ohio State Gunkeyes -11
Coming off a tough loss to Keenan and Kel-ce last week, Jalenhouse Rock will look to get back into the playoff discussion when they host the Gunkeyes. Pop quiz: Who’s the highest scoring team in Segundo since week 1? If you guessed the Gunkeyes, you’d be wrong…they’re the second highest. And when you combine that with the fact that Jalenhouse Rock will be without their namesake, Jalen Hurts, as well as Gabe Davis this week, things begin to look dismal. Missing that kind of talent against a Gunkeyes team that averages 134 pts/gm on the road suggests this contest has all the makings for a blowout.
COMMISH'S PICK: Ohio State Gunkeyes
LINE: TJONES35 -16
Things haven’t gone well for TJONES35 at ALL CAPS STADIUM this season where they’re 1-3 and they’ve been outscored by nearly 20 pts/gm. But I think the fans will be excited when they get a chance at some Tator Tots this week. The Tots struggled last week, posting their second lowest score of the season with 94 points. With Dalvin Cook out on bye, I could see that happening again. The question is whether TJONES can keep up their red-hot scoring. Over the past two weeks, they’ve averaged 131 pts/gm and though I’m not sure they’ll hit that mark again, I do think they should finish in the 115-120 range. And that should be enough to eat up the Tots.
COMMISH'S PICK:TJONES35
LINE: Keenan and Kel-ce -5
We’re on to Cleveland! appears to be up to some Beli-tricks as they’ve yet to declare four replacements for starters that are out on bye. With that in mind, you can see why this contest is a challenge to predict. If they make the moves and set their roster in the way I anticipate, I think they’ll matchup well in this game. If not, an automatic forfeit may be coming. On the Keenan and Kel-ce side of the ball, I could certainly see them coming close to their season average on the road, 120 pts/gm. And, they’ll need to if they’re going to leave town with a victory against a Cleveland! team that has averaged 123.6 pts/gm over their last five and hasn’t scored less than 100 points this season. In what I expect to be a close and hard-fought battle, I’ll go with the team that comes into the contest prepared.
COMMISH'S PICK: Keenan and Kel-ce
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