LINE: Do Not Panic -1
Winners of four straight games, the Pork Chop Express will travel to Keep Calm And Carry On field this week to take on a Panic team fresh off a much needed victory. During their 4-game winning streak, the Chops are averaging 130.8 pts/gm which is just about what Do Not Panic surrenders at home this season. While it's easy to dismiss Panic because they give up 129 pts/gm at home, you should keep in mind that they also average 133 pts/gm on the offensive side of the ball. The fact is that their home games tend to be high scoring affairs and with an over-under north of 200 pts, the bettors seem to agree this one will go that way as well. With a 3-0 record and an average of 129 pts/gm on the road this season, I'd have to say the edge goes to the Pork Chops. But, a lot depends on which Chops team shows up; the one that averaged 140 pts in weeks five through eight, or the one that scored just 103 last week. If this matchup were on the schedule two weeks ago, I'd easily take the Chops. However, after last week, I'm inclined to agree with the spread and take Panic for the upset.
COMMISH'S PICK: Do Not Panic
LINE: Golden Tate Warriors -27
It has been six weeks since Baby Got Dak last outscored the Golden Tate Warriors and it looks like an uphill battle if they're going avoid extending that streak to seven. Dak began the season on a tear, winning their first 4 games while averaging 118.5 pts/gm. Since then, they're 1-3 and their average score has dropped by more than two touchdowns to 101.8 pts/gm. Oh, and they just lost Derrick Henry for the season. With their workhorse gone, Dak will call on Jeremy McNichols and hope that there's enough production there to help fill in the void left by Henry's absence. If you're looking at this game and thinking it could be competitive because Golden Tate is coming off a loss themselves, don't. Their loss last week was to a very talented Thundabuddies team and it was only their first in six games. Plus, Dak is one of the teams that the Warriors have had a lot of success against. A lot. In 16 contests, the Warriors are 11-5 against Dak and they win by an average of 13.6 points, 108.7-95.1. And if that weren't enough to convince you, consider the fact that concedes 126.3 pts/gm on the road compared to just 101.8 pts/gm at home.
COMMISH'S PICK: Golden Tate Warriors
LINE: Christian McMingle -1
You'd have to go back five years, to 2016, to find Christian McMingle's last victory at home against the Bounty Hunters. It's been a while. And though McMingle is 1-2 at home this season it isn't for lack of offensive production. At home, McMingle is averaging a very respectable 122.7 pts/gm this season. The problem is that they're allowing opponents to have their way, averaging 126.7 pts/gm. But the scoring in this game will be different. For starters, Christian McMingle will make adjustments that should help to keep the Hunters in check. And look for the Bounty Hunters to scrap the Prevent Defense scheme that has yielded them an 0-2 record on the road while giving up 141.5 pts/gm in those contests. In the end, this game will look more like previous meetings between these two where the average score has been 93.0-89.6 in favor of the Hunters. The last time these two met, the Bounty Hunters came away with an 87-81 victory. My gut tells me we'll see a very similar outcome this time around too.
COMMISH'S PICK: NH Bounty Hunters
LINE: Who Is You -31
As a 36-point underdog last week, Badazz Bri knocked off Los Perros Locos. Can they replicate that feat this week? They can if you consider the fact that they're 0-2 at Drink 'Em If You Got 'Em stadium while scoring an average of only 55 pts/gm. What? No, I didn't forget the hundred's digit. You read that right; Who Is You scores an average of 55 points on the road against Bri. In fact, during their last visit, in week 9 of 2019, You set the league record for the lowest score ever with just 25 points. You wanna hear something even crazier? Badazz Bri won that game with just 56 points. Only 81 points were scored in that game. Eighty. One. For those of you interested in reliving that train wreck, you can click here to see the box score. But put all of that aside and let's focus on the fact that Who Is You has outscored Badazz Bri in every week this season except for one. Plus, Who Is You is a better and more consistent team than the Perros. And when a team that averages 124.6 pts/gm meets up against a team that surrenders 147.5 pts/gm at home, you know it's going to be a disaster. Bri may have pulled one over on me last week when I picked the Perros to win, but there is no way I'm not taking Who Is You. Like W said: "Fool me once, shame on...shame on you. Fool me - you can't get fooled again."
COMMISH'S PICK: Who Is You
LINE: Thundabuddies -18
What happens when the unstoppable force meets the immovable object? We're about to find out. The Thundabuddies have been unconstrained on the road this season winning both of their games while averaging 134.5 pts/gm. But they're about to come up against a steadfast Balls defense that has only allowed 81.3 pts/gm in the Nether Region. And for as good as the Balls have been on defense at home, the Buddies are just as good, if not better, on the road holding opponents to only 76 pts/gm. That, in and of itself, could spell trouble for a Sticky Balls team that will be without a lot of quality talent. With DK Metcalf and the Buccaneers D/ST off this week, and Chris Carson, David Montgomery, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire all on IR, I can understand why they're projected to finish with less than 100 pts. If that stingy defense of theirs can hold the Thundabuddies to less than 100 points, something no team has done yet this season, they may have a shot at the upset.
COMMISH'S PICK: Chief Sticky Balls
LINE: Jergoff Passout -2
This is a battle between two teams with identical records despite vast differences in scoring. For Jergoff Passout, the challenge has been on the defensive side of the ball. Although they're the 3rd highest scoring team in the league with 116.8 pts/gm, they've given up more points than any other with 125.4 pts/gm allowed. The opposite is true for Los Perros Locos. The dogs have the best defense in the league, holding opponents to only 92.4 pts/gm. But, their offense is the 2nd worst in the league and the inconsistent play has yielded just 98.6 pts/gm. Scoring just 52 points last week, the Perros were embarrassed by a Bri team they overlooked. But for each week the Perros under-perform, they over-perform in the next. In week 1, they scored 58 points followed by 133 in week 2. In week 3, they scored 95 followed by 138 points in week 4. They followed up an 80-point week 5 performance with 127 points in week 6. See a pattern? I imagine we'll see a marked improvement from Los Perros Locos this week but whether or not it's enough to beat a Passout team coming off their worst game of the season is another issue. Surely, Jergoff Passout will score more than 91 points this week, but I'd suggest this game will be decided more by which Perros team shows up. On paper, Passout has more talent but I think the dogs are hungrier.
COMMISH'S PICK: Los Perros Locos
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