SAGEBRUSH CACTUS LEAGUE
LINE: NH Bounty Hunters -24
Neither team has won a game over the past three weeks. A simple glance at their scoring reveals why. Over their last three, the Hunters are averaging only 85 pts/gm. And if you think that’s bad, wait until you notice Chief Sticky Balls’ average of only 69.7 pts/gm. Those are Badazz Bri levels of scoring. And while I expect the Hunters to get back on track and score more than 100 points this week, I can’t say the same for the Balls. Between the injuries and bye weeks their options are severely limited, and they’ll be lucky to score 80. Some games require a lot of deep research and careful consideration of all factors in predicting the winner. This is not one of those games.
COMMISH'S PICK: NH Bounty Hunters
LINE: EVEN
If you’re looking for a good contest between two premier QBs, this is your game. Mahomes will steer the Pork Chop Express into Baby Face Field where they’ll battle Josh Allen and the Golden Tate Warriors. In the past, the Chops have had some success on the road against the Warriors, winning two of three while averaging 104 pts/gm. And I’m sure the Chops are happy to be the guests again given the fact that they’re averaging 134.7 pts/gm as the visiting team this season compared to only 91.2 pts/gm when they’re the host. But don’t be too quick to give the Chops this game. This is not the same Pork Chop Express team we’ve seen in the past. They’ve struggled finding their identity this season and they have yet to find a solution to their RB issues. Plus, the Warriors have been wheeling and dealing over the past few days giving Allen several new weapons to choose from in this game. And warriors like a variety of weapons.
COMMISH'S PICK: Golden Tate Warriors
LINE: Los Perros Locos -12
Los Perros head into this contest riding a three-game winning streak, which is inconceivable when you consider their terrible start to the season. But things are not all rosy. They have exactly enough players to field a team and they’re heading into Keep Calm Stadium to take on a Panic team that has won their last two. The Do Not Panic defense has been stingy at home this season, allowing only 85.8 pts/gm and, when you factor in the Perros average of 84.8 pts/gm on the road, all indications suggest this will be another low scoring affair. Look for Panic’s WRs, Hill and Olave, to have solid outings but, unless Brady can find his rhythm, their offense may stall out around 95 points again. Considering the Perros’ average score over their last three games is 106.7 pts/gm, that may not be enough.
COMMISH'S PICK: Los Perros Locos
LINE: Baby Got Dak -5
The trend line suggests Badazz Bri will win this game – they lose two, they win one, they lose two, they win one. And, since they’ve lost their last two games, they should win, right? No, and here’s why: they’re 0-4 against Cactus teams this year. Well, that and the fact that they haven’t scored over 100 points since week 3, which is also the only time they scored more than 100 this year. Baby Got Dak is coming into Drink ‘Em If You Got ‘Em Stadium with back-to-back wins including their highest score of the season last week, 153 points, and they’re in the middle of a 4-way tie for second place in the Cactus division. I’ve seen this Dak team enough to know that they may not be as flashy as other teams, but they usually find a way to get the job done.
COMMISH'S PICK: Baby Got Dak
LINE: Who Is You -13
There’s a lot of similarity between these two teams. For example, both are 4-4, average 111 pts/gm, and are currently two games out of first place in their divisions. One glaring difference, though, is that the Consolation Kings have won three straight after starting their season 1-4. The Kings have been hot, but it looks like someone just threw cold water on them. Without Chubb and Chuba this week, the Kings are going to need to lean on their WRs and the sporadic play of Kyler Murray to carry them throughout this contest. Don’t get me wrong, those are talented players, and they could put enough points up on the board to get the Kings over the 100-point threshold. But – and this is a big “but” – the Kings are the #1 team in one important category: Most Points Allowed in Home Games. Yes, the Kings are extremely generous hosts, allowing visiting opponents an average of 125.3 pts/gm. That’s enough to convince me to take You.
COMMISH'S PICK: Who Is You
LINE: Thundabuddies -6
These two are the only teams in the league that have put together 5-game win streak so far this season. The Thundabuddies opened their season with five straight and Jergoff Passout lost last week to end their streak. There’s little doubt these are the best two teams in the league, however, they’re winning in different ways. Jergoff Passout is scoring at an impressive of pace, averaging 125.1 pts/gm putting them at the top of the leaderboard. While the Thundabuddies offense has rarely let them down this season, it’s their defense that’s winning games for them with opponents only netting an average of 98.3 pts/gm. So, what happens when a good offense collides with a stingy defense? In this case, I think the defense will have the upper hand. Passout will be without their regular D/ST (14.9 pts/gm) and Saquon Barkley (18.4 pts/gm) leaving them with a lot of points to make up for. The Thundabuddies, on the other hand, aren’t really feeling a pinch from the bye week and with Goff playing at home, I think he’s ready to lead that team to victory.
COMMISH'S PICK: Thundabuddies
SCL SEGUNDO LEAGUE
LINE: We're on to Cleveland! -12
Times are hard, man. It’s been five weeks since Hardman’s last victory and four weeks since they last scored more than 100 points. If they’re going to make a push to get back into the playoff discussion, they’ll need to turn things around quickly. Standing in their way is a Cleveland! team that has lost two straight and are looking to bounce back from a tough loss last week. If there’s one thing My Chubb’s Hardman has going for them, it’s the fact that Cleveland! has been horrendous at home this season where they’re 0-3. That said, Hardman does not travel well. In four road contests, Hardman is 0-4 and they lose by an average of 34.2 pts/gm. There’s a slight chance Hardman musters enough offense to pull off the upset, but I’m not willing to put my money on it.
COMMISH'S PICK: My Chubb's Hardman
LINE: Jalenhouse Rock -2
After losing three straight games in weeks 4 through 6, Jalenhouse Rock has managed to win their last two and get back to .500. But this week’s Graceland guest, the Tator Tots, are hot to the touch with wins in three of their last four and sitting just one game off the Cholla division lead. The Tots scored 141 points last week giving them their third game over 130 points – something Rock has done only once this season…back in week 1. To win, Jalenhouse Rock will need contain several explosive players on the Tots roster while also scoring plenty themselves. Between the Tots ability to score and their propensity for allowing points to their opponents on the road - 133 pts/gm - this contest could give us the High Score winner for week 9. And if you've ever played Roshambo, you know that Rock beats Tots.
COMMISH'S PICK: Jalenhouse Rock
LINE: Najee Germany -3
There’s trouble in Deutschland. Najee Germany is coming off their third week of scoring below 100 points and they’ve lost three of their last four to find themselves stuck near the bottom of their division. And sending their army into the Aww, Here It Goes Dome presents a major challenge given Germany is 1-4 on the road this season while averaging only 98.2 pts/gm. The good news is that Keenan and Kel-ce is beatable at home. In three games, they’re only 1-2 and they’ve allowed 117 pts/gm in their own backyard. Keenan and Kel-ce will likely score 100 to 105 points which means Germany could pull off the upset if they can get back to their early season form. I can see some of Germany’s top talent having a good week with their Bills D/ST contributing just enough to close the deal.
COMMISH'S PICK: Najee Germany
LINE: Ohio State Gunkeyes -13
You could make the case that the Gunkeyes are one of the more underrated teams in Segundo. Their record is only 4-4, but they haven’t scored less than 100 points since week 1 and they’re the 4th highest scoring team in the league, overall. That bodes well against a BattleBornKid team that has been inconsistent from week to week. If league history is any indication, Kid will score exactly 105 points in this game. Why? Because they average 105.7 pts/gm on the road and the Gunkeyes allow 105.8 pts/gm to opponents at home. So, if that’s a given, then what are the odds the Gunkeyes score more? Pretty good, really. The Gunkeyes have tallied more than 105 points in six of eight weeks this season and, with Josh Allen at the helm, I certainly think they’ll do it again.
COMMISH'S PICK: Ohio State Gunkeyes
LINE: TJONES35 -21
If you were to exclude their awful week 4 performance (64 points), TJONES35 would be the highest scoring team in the league with an average of 131.7 pts/gm. As it were, they still average 123.3 pts/gm. And this week, they’ll head out on the road where they’re undefeated and average a league best 130.7 pts/gm. There’s no doubt that Shiva Kaminis looked good last week. They scored 141 points – without a D/ST – but I’m not sure if that’s the rule or the exception. In the two weeks prior to that, they registered only 94 pts/gm and I fear we’re looking at an outing that is more in line with that number. If this were week 3 or 4, I might be enticed to take Kaminis. However, at this point in the season, playoff contenders turn it on and rarely let opportunities slip. Take TJONES35 with confidence.
COMMISH'S PICK: TJONES35
LINE: Chubby Chase -3
The top two scoring teams in Segundo square off in what should be a battle royale among division leaders. While Slim Brady has the better record, Chubby Chase averages just a tad more per week, 128.5 pts/gm to 127.38 pts/gm. And though we’re in the thick of the bye weeks in the NFL, these two still matchup well. Both will be without their regular D/ST however, Chase will also be without their star RB, and namesake, Nick Chubb. The difference makers, in my opinion, are the WRs…specifically Diggs and Jefferson. Justin Jefferson’s production dipped quite a bit after an incredible week 1, but he’s showing signs of life again and he’s due for a TD…or two. Diggs, on the other hand, has scored more than 20 points in his last three outings. There’s no reason to believe it won’t happen again this week. Tell me which receiver will have the better day and I’ll tell you who will win this contest. My gut tells me it will be Jefferson.
COMMISH'S PICK: The Real Slim Brady
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